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As of November 3, 2014, Birdman, or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance might not be the front-runner to win the 2015 Best Picture Academy Award — Gold Derby‘s pundits are torn between The Imitation Game, Unbroken, and Boyhood in that top spot — but it is certainly generating the most buzz. That’s in part because it’s a wildly ambitious, beautifully shot film, and because it’s the only big Oscar contender that’s been released to the general public.

It’s good, but is it great enough to beat the odds and take home an Oscar for “Best Picture”?

Birdman has a lot of positives going for it. It’s a technical masterpiece. The cinematography and special effects work in concert to make what appears to be an elaborate single shot that runs through most of the film. The acting is also exemplary. Michael Keaton surges back into stardom in a role that, yeah, sure, he was born to play. Like Keaton himself, Riggan Thomson is a past his prime movie star best remembered for playing a superhero in the late ’80s and early ’90s. However, unlike Keaton, Thomson never played Beetlejuice.

Keaton isn’t the only actor who impresses in Birdman, though. Ed Norton seems to positively relish playing the well-tread role of the ego-driven actor who sees himself as “artiste.” In fact, I felt like he was not only lampooning some of the rumors about himself, but that he was also poking fun at headline-making actors like Shia LaBeouf. Andrea Riseborough gives yet another subtly strong turn and Emma Stone throws down one of her first truly transcendent performances.

So, Birdman‘s cinematographer and its cast certainly deserve a bit of love from the Academy, but for some reason, we’re not entirely on board yet. At many times, the film — which posits that art is more than just pleasing critics — feels like it’s more about the technical aspects that build up a great piece of art, rather than the passion that fuels it.

The film is obviously constructed so that all its bells and whistles are noticed. This is a film that wants to dazzle you. It wants attention. It wants awards. It wants the critics to hail it. And so, it feels less like a true piece of art than a technical show engineered to invoke positive critique.

Oh, and there’s so much jazz drumming. So! Much! Like, Whiplash is about jazz drumming, but it felt like there was more invasive jazz drumming in this film. You think I’m joking, but that much distracting jazz drumming can put someone off the whole film. Meaning, I’ve heard smart people point to “all the jazz drumming” as a reason they couldn’t connect with the film.

Birdman completely deserves to be in the Oscar conversation, but it might not have the heart (or campaign tactics) to win Best Picture.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in the six major categories — not who we think deserves to be:

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: Birdman, The Imitation Game, The Theory Of Everything, Gone Girl, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Unbroken, American Sniper, Interstellar, Into The Woods

What’s The Buzz: Birdman is eating up a lot of the Oscar buzz if only for the fact that Hollywood (and America) hasn’t yet felt the full brunt of Harvey Weinstein’s eventual PR assault in support of The Imitation Game. After that, it’s going to be a scramble for the other nominations. Vulture points to Selma as a big Oscar contender, but the film doesn’t have the buzz that even Sundance favorite, Whiplash, does. We’re tentatively giving the last three spots to American Sniper, Interstellar, Into The Woods, but they could be usurped by late 2014 surges from Tim Burton’s Big Eyes or J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linkletter (Boyhood), Christopher Nolan (Interstellar), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)

What’s The Buzz: Iñárritu is obviously a magician when it comes to making spectacular visuals, but Linkletter is the director who has told the story with the most heart this year. Everyone’s been giving Jolie the nod since seeing the Unbroken trailer this summer, but we’re holding out until we see the finished product. The Imitation Game director Morten Tyldum could easily take Fincher or Miller’s spot.

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Michael Keaton (Birdman), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

What’s The Buzz: The first four names on this list are pretty much locked down. It’s that fifth spot that’s really up for contention. Joaquin Phoenix could nab the spot for his performance in Inherent Vice, or an up-and-comer like Miles Teller or Chadwick Boseman could sneak in. Right now, we’d bet that Bradley Cooper will get it if for no other reason than the Academy seems to like nominating Bradley Cooper.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

What’s The Buzz: Three months ago, it looked like Reese Witherspoon would have to fight off the redheads for her second Academy Award. Moore has two strong performances this year, Amy Adams supposedly throws down as always in Big Eyes, and Chastain was coming in hot with The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby and Miss Julie. However, Chastain’s two big indie roles failed to connect with critics and Pike wowed audiences everywhere in Gone Girl. Most critics are predicting that Felicity Jones will join the first four names on this list for The Theory Of Everything, and while that’s extremely likely, she’s already failed to connect with voters twice before (The Invisible Woman and Like Crazy). So, we think that Chastain might squeak in with her end-of-year release.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)

What’s The Buzz: As always, the Best Supporting categories are always critical grab bags. Right now, Simmons might have the biggest buzz if only because his sadistic jazz drumming instructor drives Whiplash. We’re also expecting big surges later in the year for the always amazing Ruffalo and the intensely likable Tatum for their transformations in Foxcatcher.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into The Woods), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Julianne Moore (A Map To The Stars)

What’s The Buzz: Best Supporting Actress is traditionally one of the hardest categories to predict. Here is where up-and-coming ingenues get a spotlight, grand dames get their last hurrah, and dark horses named Marisa Tomei and Juliette Binoche come literally out of nowhere. While Vulture has Chastain pinged for a nod for her role in Interstellar, IndieWire is suggesting she might submit her A Most Violent Year performance in this category. Either way, it’s very possible that Chastain will wiggle in either here or in the Best Actress Category.

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.

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[Photos: Everett Collection]