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This might be the most pivotal week in the awards race. Last night, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association threw a splashy party and gave out a bunch of Golden Globes. Later this week, the nominations for this years Academy Awards will be announced. So, yeah, this is the week that could determine the rest of the race.

Where are we? While the Golden Globes signaled massive shifts for the game in television (Transparent! The Affair! Jane The Virgin! House of Cards!), it didn’t do much to really shake up the Oscar race. At least, not in terms of who the front-runners are. Boyhood (and its beloved director, Richard Linklater) looks to be the film to beat, and Michael Keaton, Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette are still the favorites to take home Oscar gold.

What the Golden Globes did shake up is the nominations game. Films and actors who had been overlooked by pundits might not be not only included in the Oscar mix, but hot on the frontrunners’ tails. Everyone assumed that The Grand Budapest Hotel would be overlooked in the race because it was released last spring, but it might surge into the nominations pack — and freeze out early favorites like Unbroken, Interstellar, and Foxcatcher.

Eddie Redmayne got his biggest push in the Best Actor category to date last night; the freckled Brit beat out both Benedict Cumberbatch and David Oyelewo for the Best Actor in a Drama award. Meanwhile, Jennifer Aniston’s sudden surge to an Oscar nomination might have stalled last night. It’s beginning to become painfully obvious that she’s pushing a decent performance in a terrible film into the Oscar conversation. Plus, Amy Adams came back out of nowhere to win for Big Eyes last night.

So, there it is: the biggest shockers this week won’t come from who everyone thinks will win the Oscars, but who everyone supposes will be nominated for them.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”):

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: Boyhood, Selma, Birdman, The Imitation Game, Gone Girl, The Theory Of Everything, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Sniper, Into The Woods

What’s The Buzz: Boyhood is the official Oscar frontrunner, but that means it’s got to shift its strategy. Until about a month ago, it was positioned as the feel good underdog. Everyone loves an underdog and no one loves a winner. That could give Boyhood a bit of backlash. We think the film can keep the support of its ardent fan base, but watch out for Selma to make a strategic push based on the political timeliness of the film’s subject matter.

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Ava DuVernay (Selma), David Fincher (Gone Girl)

What’s The Buzz: At this point, the Oscar is Linklater’s to lose, but he should be wary of the buzz that’s sparking around Selma‘s Ava DuVernay.

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything), David Oyelowo (Selma), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher)

What’s The Buzz: While we’re seeing up-and-comers like David Oyelowo, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Eddie Redmayne surge on the awards circuit, last night proved that Keaton is still the man to beat.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

What’s The Buzz: It looked like Amy Adams would be elbowed out of the Oscar race by Jennifer Anison’s incessant self-promotion and by Felicity Jones’ breakthrough performance in The Theory Of Everything, but after winning the Golden Globe last night, we’re pushing Adams back into the race. Of course, Moore is still the favorite to win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes), Edward Norton (Birdman)

What’s The Buzz: Yup. J.K. Simmons is probably going to snag the Academy Award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Meryl Streep (Into The Woods), Emma Stone (Birdman), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

What’s The Buzz: A few months ago, this looked like one of the most volatile categories, and now it looks pretty much locked down. If nothing else, last night proved that Arquette is set to take home the Oscar for her transcendent performance in Boyhood.

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.

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[Photos: Everett Collection]