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You can divide Awards Season in two parts. There’s the time leading up to the Oscar nominations, wherein all we’re speculating about who will be in the running for an Academy Award, and then there’s everything after. We have now reached the latter point in Awards Season. The dust has settled, the names have been called, and now it’s all about predicting who will actually take the golden statue home. (Click here for a full list of nominees.)

This year’s Oscar nominations include a staggering lack of diversity, a couple of surprising snubs, and one beguiling French dark horse. It looks like all the early favorites are still leading their respective races, but is it locked up? Yes, but some of the categories boast underdogs who could launch a great campaign and steal the final prize on February 22.

Here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get win in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”):

BEST PICTURE

Current Pick: Boyhood

What’s The Buzz: A few days before the Oscar nominations were announced, my colleague, Tyler Coates, argued that it was going to be two-horse race between Boyhood and Selma. The argument was while Boyhood has all the buzz, Selma is a more timely film. Now that Selma‘s director and leading man have been snubbed, it’s looking like the historical drama is out of the race. I think we could see some sort of groundswell of support around it, but everyone should watch out for Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. The film is killing it at the box office and the stodgy set who votes for the Oscars loves Eastwood.

Still, Boyhood looks like it’s a lock to win…for now.

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Pick: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

What’s The Buzz: It’s almost inevitable that Linklater will take the Best Director Oscar home. He’s universally loved in Hollywood and pulled off a miracle by shooting a film over twelve years. It’s going to take a very big shake up to push him off his perch.

BEST ACTOR

Current Pick: Michael Keaton (Birdman)

What’s The Buzz: Keaton has a couple of things going for him in this category: he’s the oldest nominee, he delivered a terrific comeback performance, and he gave a brilliant performance. Until the Golden Globes, it seemed like his biggest competition would come from Benedict Cumberbatch. The Brit has been working ceaselessly to boost his profile. It’s obvious he wants it for his work as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game. However, Eddie Redmayne has been topping more critics’ lists than Cumberbatch and the affable young actor took the Golden Globe home. We don’t think Redmayne is going to make the political push to take the top prize, but if he did, he would certainly be putting pressure on Keaton’s campaign.

BEST ACTRESS

Current Pick: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

What’s The Buzz: Moore has had this race tied up for months. At one point, it looked like Reese Witherspoon was going to try to push in on her, and recently, Jennifer Aniston hired a Academy Awards campaign consultant in an effort to not only score a nomination, but ostensibly to take the top prize. Witherspoon has cooled her jets and Aniston wasn’t nominated, but there’s a new threat: Marion Cotillard. The enchanting French actress has been getting a lot of love from critics and she has a strange way of coming out of nowhere to take the crown. Remember when she won for La Vie En Rose? Still, we’re guessing Moore will win if only because everyone can’t believe she hasn’t won yet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Pick: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

What’s The Buzz: There’s nothing really to discuss here. J.K. Simmons is going to win the Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Pick: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

What’s The Buzz: Patricia Arquette has been sweeping this category all during Awards Season and we don’t see anyone in her category mounting a serious threat. That said, she is up against Meryl Streep and as we all know, you should never sleep on Streep.

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.

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[Photos: Everett Collection]