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October might be the most volatile month in the Oscar race. In early October, most of the field is coasting on industry buzz or a single audience’s adulation in some trendy foreign market. It’s the time when we like to make bets based on the star quality carrying a film or the track record of a producer. Still, it’s a very early, very delicate time — and many “buzzworthy” flicks burn out and explode into ash by November 1.

About a month ago, films like Steve Jobs, Black Mass, Truth, Beasts of No Nation, and Our Brand Is Crisis were being promoted as frontrunners for the Best Picture prize. Most of these films were box office bombs (though Beasts of No Nation has been streamed by millions of Netflix users at home), and it’s beginning to look like the cream of the crop is still to come. Now we should back up and explain that box office receipts don’t equal critical acclaim. But what is critical acclaim? It’s consensus. While highbrow critics liked Steve Jobs, most moviegoers weren’t showing up to the box office. Yeah, some big wig at a major trade might have loved Danny Boyle’s collaboration with Aaron Sorkin, but now the buzz for the film is bad because box office nerds have rendered it a “failure.” That label is going to stick.

Just as bad box office can dash a smaller movie’s Oscar hopes, a bombastic box office performance can move an otherwise good film into a frontrunner’s position. Ridley Scott’s The Martian dominated the October box office. It’s a well-made, sweet film about how humanity can overcome all odds when we work together. It’s gorgeous in 3D and features a crazy ensemble cast anchored by an extraordinary Matt Damon. Is it the best movie of the year? We don’t think so. But it’s so wildly popular and universally acclaimed that it’s slid into the race. We think it will have the steam to push out several quirky underdogs, but we don’t think it can topple the growing support for Room or Spotlight (or the almost-inevitable adulation for David O. Russell’s Joy or Alejandro González Iñárritu’s The Revenant.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”). Enter “The Oscar Grouch”:

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: Spotlight, The Revenant, Joy, Room, Steve Jobs, Brooklyn, The Martian, The Hateful Eight, Carol, Inside Out

What’s The Buzz: Spotlight remains our top pick for Best Picture. The film has already begun to roll out its marketing campaign and so far its push looks pitch perfect. One film that has flagged a bit? Steve Jobs. Sure, the film got great reviews, but it tanked at the box office. Add to that the fact that The Martian and Brooklyn are surging, and both Steve Jobs and Beasts of No Nation could be in trouble. Also: Look out for Creed to make a surprise push in December. We think the combo of newness and nostalgia for the Michael B. Jordan/Ryan Coogler reboot of Rocky might deliver a surprise knockout.

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), Alejandro González Iñárritu (The Revenant), David O. Russell (Joy), Ridley Scott (The Martian), Lenny Abrahamson (Room)

What’s The Buzz: Bridge of Spies and Steve Jobs are both fading, but that means that two new spots have opened up. Many pundits are calling The Martian Ridley Scott’s best film in decades, which means he might take Spielberg’s “old-timer” slot. Then, don’t underestimate the groundswell of buzz for Room‘s Lenny Abrahamson. Like we posited in our last installment, this year’s race will favor fresh faces over the usual suspects.

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), Matt Damon (The Martian), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Michael Caine (Youth),

What’s The Buzz: The Martian‘s rise in popularity has only buoyed its Oscar chances across the board. We think that Oscar voters won’t forget that the stress of the epic ensemble piece rested heavily on the shoulders of Matt Damon’s fantastic performance. Similarly, Johnny Depp seems to be getting pushed out of the conversation. Fassbender, too, should reconsider a campaign strategy. Both Will Smith and Michael B. Jordan could wiggle in there if Concussion and/or Creed surge in December.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Brie Larson (Room), Cate Blanchett (Carol), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), Carey Mulligan (Suffragette)

What’s The Buzz: We’re holding steady on our top five picks, but Carey Mulligan has the weakest chances of earning a nomination at this point. Lily Tomlin, Charlotte Rampling, or Emily Blunt could push her out with the right kind of campaign.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Jacob Tremblay (Room), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Benecio Del Toro (The Sicario), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

What’s The Buzz: Many pundits are calling this the most tumultuous race of the year because no one can agree on who the frontrunners are. It’s still unclear who will be the stand out from Spotlight, though early buzz is centering on Ruffalo. We don’t know if voters will cozy up to the pint-sized Tremblay or if Elba will be able to get old-school Hollywood to stream Beasts of No Nation on Netflix. This, coupled with the fact that Tom Hardy seems entirely disinterested in campaigning for an Oscar, means that we’ve shuffled our picks to put Ruffalo on top and to include Del Toro and Rylance. Watch this space between now and January. (Especially if Rocky dies in Creed!)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Rooney Mara (Carol), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), Jane Fonda (Youth)

What’s The Buzz: Right now, this category looks to be a battle between Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander. Last time we were pulling for the doe-eyed Swede, but now the seesaw has tipped more for Mara. The actress is the beating heart of the heart wrenching lesbian romance.

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.