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We’ve been saying for weeks that Spotlight is the undisputed Oscar frontrunner. It’s a gorgeous film that follows The Boston Globe Spotlight team’s arduous journey to uncover the deep-rooted corruption at the heart of the Catholic Church. The film is an expertly-made thriller that doesn’t lean on gimmicks to tell its story, nor is it ever maudlin despite its emotional subject matter. So case closed, right? Spotlight has it in the bag. Not so fast…

Alejandro González Iñárritu’s new film The Revenant screened for the very first time this weekend and the response was practically orgasmic. No one was counting the Birdman director out, but all of the reports of onset turmoil did nothing to help the film’s early buzz. Given the fact that Iñárritu seems to have delivered back-to-back masterpieces, Spotlight‘s chances for the Best Picture Oscar seem to be dimming. Nevertheless, we are still calling it Spotlight‘s race because we don’t know if Hollywood will want to award Iñárritu back-to-back Best Picture and Best Director Oscars.

Do you know who really benefits from The Revenant‘s buzz? Its leading man. For decades, Leonardo DiCaprio has been hailed as one of Hollywood’s most beloved leading men. He’s broken hearts, collaborated with the best directors, and earned five Oscar nominations — but he’s never won a single one. 2016 could finally be Leo’s year to shine.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”). Enter “The Oscar Grouch”:

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Martian, Joy, Carol, Room, The Danish Girl, Brooklyn, Steve Jobs, Creed

What’s The Buzz: Even though Spotlight has been steadily winning over audiences, early reviews of The Revenant suggest we shouldn’t count out Alejandro González Iñárritu just yet. Furthermore, Carol has been winning over dozens of passionate fans and The Danish Girl has begun its big awards season push. We’re swapping in Creed for Inside Out because we’re predicting that it will be a surprise critical and commercial smash this holiday season.

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), Alejandro González Iñárritu (The Revenant), David O. Russell (Joy), Ridley Scott (The Martian), Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs)

What’s The Buzz: While Ryan Coogler and Todd Haynes are gaining steam for their respective films Creed and Carol, the only major shake up in the race is the fact that Alejandro González Iñárritu’s The Revenant screened to almost unanimous praise. Could the Birdman director snap up the Oscar two years in a row?

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), Matt Damon (The Martian), Johnny Depp (Black Mass)

What’s The Buzz: Leonardo DiCaprio is back at the top! There seems to be a general consensus that this might finally be the year that DiCaprio takes home the Oscar. The only hitch is whether or not The Revenant could deliver and if he can keep the likes of Michael Fassbender and Eddie Redmayne at bay. Now that The Revenant is surging, all he has to do is hustle hard and hope that his competition doesn’t campaign harder.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Brie Larson (Room), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Cate Blanchett (Carol), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

What’s The Buzz: Last week it looked like Brie Larson was going to have to work hard to keep the juggernaut that is J. Law at bay. However, since Mockingjay Part II opened weak, it’s possible that Jennifer Lawrence has lot a tiny bit of her movie star mojo. Rapturous reviews of Carol have boosted Cate Blanchett’s chances, but we still think Larson is the most likely winner at this stage. Her fellow potential nominees fell over themselves over her performance during The Hollywood Reporter‘s recent Actress Roundtable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Michael Keaton (Spotlight), Jacob Tremblay (Room), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

What’s The Buzz: As Mike Rezendes, Mark Ruffalo is the beating heart of Spotlight and the Hollywood favorite is overdue for some love from the Academy. But do you know who’s really overdo for an Oscar? Sylvester Stallone. He was nominated for two awards for the original Rocky, but hasn’t gotten any recognition from the Academy since then. The word is he kills it in Creed and it could be enough to earn an Oscar next February.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), Rooney Mara (Carol) , Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Jane Fonda (Youth)

What’s The Buzz: Since Alicia Vikander is receiving rave reviews for her role in The Danish Girl, we’re giving her the edge this week over Rooney Mara. However, it remains to be seen if both actresses will be allowed to stay in the Best Supporting Actress category. As we mentioned last week, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is putting both actresses in the race for Best Actress, citing category fraud. If the Academy bumps Vikander and Rooney out of this category, look for a much more exciting Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress race.

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.