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Mad Max: Fury Road

The Golden Globes are the highest profile precursor award before the Oscar nominations get announced (THIS THURSDAY!), and since for so long, the Globes were the baby steps on the road to the Oscar podium, the temptation is to figure that Globe success completely changes the face of the Oscar race. It can … just not always. The key is being able to tell the difference.

The Globe Development: The Revenant cleans up!

How Much Does This Change The Oscar Race? Not as much as you’d think. Going into the Globes, the frontrunners for the big award seemed to be Spotlight, Carol (which led the Golden Globe field with five nominations), or maybe Mad Max if things got really crazy. Nobody had The Revenant, in part because Iñarritu already had his big year last year. Ah, but the Globes gave Best Director to Richard Linklater last year, so they may have felt the urge to honor Iñarritu for his back-to-back films. The Oscars are historically reluctant to honor the same people in back-to-back years, and besides, Leonardo DiCaprio’s eventual win (if anything was firmed up last night, it was the certainty that Leo’s finally going to win one) should be enough Revenant for one night.

The Globe Development: Brie Larson beats strong competition.

How Much Does This Change The Oscar Race? Certainly, Larson’s sweet, gracious speech will go a long way towards endearing her to potential voters. But the thing to remember about the Globes-vs-Oscars discussion is that in recent years they’ve gotten farther apart from each other, so the voting windows will reflect different stages of buzz. The Globes represent the old buzz, the kind that Larson enjoyed coming out of fall festival season. Someone like Saoirse Ronan has been enjoying some more recent buzz that might help her score the upset. The next big indicator will come at the Screen Actors Guild awards.

The Globe Development: The Martian laughs it up.

How Much Does This Change The Oscar Race? It doesn’t so much change the Oscar discussion as it does silence the folks who thought Ridley Scott’s film might be slipping. Yes, yes, it’s strange that The Martian was deemed a comedy. Best to get over it quickly. The Oscars don’t get into that categorization-by-genre business, so when The Martian ends up all over Thursday’s Oscar ballot — and it will very likely lead all nominated films; expect nods for Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects, and Sound — you won’t have to be so conflicted.

The Globe Development: Here comes Steve Jobs!
How Much Does This Change The Oscar Race? Probably not much, but hope springs eternal. The Golden Globes love famous people. Aaron Sorkin is one of our most famous writers. It’s no great shock that the Hollywood Foreign Press would have gone for him over the Spotlight or Carol writers. Kate Winslet’s win for Best Supporting Actress does make me wonder what happens to this category if Rooney Mara places in the lead category on Thursday. We’ve assumed Alicia Vikander because she’s playing lead roles and is Hollywood’s It Girl, but maybe The Danish Girl really is ultimately too watery to muster up enough enthusiasm for a win. I predicted Winslet would win the Oscar the minute I emerged from seeing Steve Jobs in October. Maybe I wasn’t wrong.

The Globe Development: Stallone wins one for Creed.
How Much Does This Change The Oscar Race? For Stallone, the Globe win and its accompanying standing ovation really solidify what we’ve been thinking lately: that he’s got the inside track (and a hell of a narrative) to win the Oscar. The question is whether he’ll bring any of his Creed pals with him. It doesn’t help matters that Stallone forgot to mention Creed director Ryan Coogler or star Michael B. Jordan in his televised speech. If Thursday comes and goes without recognition for those two, that’s gonna sting.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”). Enter “The Oscar Grouch”:

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: The Big Short, Spotlight, The Revenant, The Martian, Mad Max: Fury Road, Carol, Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, Inside Out, Straight Outta Compton

What’s The Buzz: Everything Brooklyn and above looks secure, though I can’t seem to fully silence that voice inside me screaming that Fury Road is way too extreme for Oscar voters’ tastes. Bridge of Spies seems much more their speed, and it picked up Producers Guild and Writers Guild nominations this week.

And then there’s Straight Outta Compton, which gets our flyer 10th place designation this week. Here’s the facts: since the Best Picture category expanded in 2009, only one film has been nominated for the PGA and SAG ensemble award and missed a Best Picture nomination: Bridesmaids in 2011. Bridesmaids was a comedy with poop jokes, which is not a genre Oscar loves. Straight Outta Compton is a music bio-pic, a genre they most definitely do love. The assumption is that the old white men of Hollywood will reject hip-hop, but I’m willing to bet there are more Les Grossmans out there than we realize.

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Ridley Scott (The Martian), Alejandro González Iñárritu (The Revenant), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), Adam McKay (The Big Short), Todd Haynes (Carol)

What’s The Buzz: Expect one of the stories on nomination day to be what to make of the success (or lack thereof) of Mad Max and Carol, the two massive critical favorites that initially seemed too lowbrow and too highbrow (respectively) for Oscar love. Their presence during precursor season has gotten everybody onboard, but right now, with The Big Short‘s Adam McKay having sneaked into the race in the last few weeks, it seems like there may only be room for George Miller OR Todd Haynes. Though hold onto your butts if Steven Spielberg sneaks in ahead of both for the surging Bridge of Spies.

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Matt Damon (The Martian), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

What’s The Buzz: It really looks like these are your five. It’ll be funny to see DiCaprio and Damon’s award trajectories intersect yet again.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Brie Larson (Room), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), Cate Blanchett (Carol), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Rooney Mara (Carol)

What’s The Buzz: Yes, we’re putting out chips on Rooney Mara as a lead actress. If she does indeed go supporting, I’d say Charlotte Rampling gets in. Though don’t rule out a Cold Mountain-style “we got sick of you all at once” reception for Jennifer Lawrence and Joy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: Sylvester Stallone (Creed), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Christian Bale (The Big Short), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

What’s The Buzz: The toughest acting category on the ballot. Look for Paul Dano, Michael Shannon, Michael Keaton, or even a Jacob Tremblay to try to break in. And I’m still not counting out Benicio Del Toro, whose Sicario had a great week this week, with WGA and PGA nominations.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Helen Mirren (Trumbo), Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) ,

What’s The Buzz: Without Rooney Mara, might this category go up for grabs. Winslet’s Golden Globe win says maybe! Jane Fonda (Youth) appears to be the spoiler here, though don’t rule out Vikander getting nominated for Ex Machina instead of The Danish Girl.

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.