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Bridge of Spies

And now it’s on to Phase 2!

When you’re talking about the Academy Awards race, you’re talking about two very different races. There’s the race to the nomination, which is the thing that starts at Sundance and runs through Cannes and the fall festival season (stopping briefly to pick up a worthy blockbuster here or there), before blazing a trail through the December critics’ awards and January guild precursors, before finally arriving at Nomination Morning, the most wonderful day of the year. (Except for this year, when we all had to simmer in the knowledge that the Academy didn’t nominate a single actor of color for the second straight year and how disappointing that was.)

Phase 1 is a race to the nomination. Phase 2 is a race to the stage at the Dolby Theater. Before Thursday morning, there were films and performers who were far bigger locks for nominations who stood zero chance at winning. Meanwhile, shakier prospects for nominations that panned out now have a real shot at winning. At least in some categories.

For now, a moment for those who didn’t make it on Thursday: Todd Haynes (Carol), Michael Keaton (Spotlight), Johnny Depp (Black Mass), Jane Fonda (Youth), Helen Mirren (Trumbo), Benicio Del Toro (Sicario), Michael Shannon (99 Homes), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation).

Oh, and how did we end up doing on predictions last week? We went 27-of-33, getting Best Actor entirely correct, missing two Best Director nominees, and missing one from each of the other major categories. Not great, but not too shabby either. Hey, we called that Mark Ruffalo nomination.

Here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get win in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”):

BEST PICTURE

Current Pick: The Revenant

Possible Dark Horse: Spotlight

What’s The Buzz: After spending the bulk of Phase 1 coming up with reasons why The Revenant wouldn’t replicate Birdman’s success last year, nomination day slapped us to the tune of 12 nominations. Just because the Oscars hardly ever go for the same director’s movies in back-to-back years doesn’t mean they won’t. Clearly, The Revenant is the perfect intersection between Important and Showy Craftsmanship that the Oscars very often love. Still, we’re probably going to be looking for reasons to pick anything else as an upset, if only because it’s so incredibly rare for a director to go back-to-back like that. Which brings us to Spotlight. While The Big Short was the one with all the momentum going into January, Spotlight bested it in nomination totals (6 to 5) and acting nominations (2 to 1). Suddenly, Spotlight looks to have the resume of a little-engine-that-could Best Picture spoiler that we all thought it would be in the fall.

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Pick: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Possible Dark Horse: Alejandro G. Iñarritu (The Revenant)

What’s The Buzz: …Okay, but Best Picture AND Best Director two years in a row? Again, watch us completely underestimate the runaway nominations leader, but doesn’t Fury Road feel like this year’s Gravity? The blockbuster popcorn movie made with impeccable technical skill that people straight-up enjoyed better than the Best Picture frontrunner?

BEST ACTOR

Current Pick: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Possible Dark Horse: Matt Damon (The Martian)

What’s The Buzz: Take that “possible dark horse” designation with a huge grain of salt, because ain’t nobody beating DiCaprio to this Oscar. Nice try, everybody else in the category.

BEST ACTRESS

Current Pick: Brie Larson (Room)

Possible Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

What’s The Buzz: Here’s another case of the buzz heading into nomination morning getting totally reversed. Room was totally on the downswing, and even Brie Larson’s Golden Globe win felt like the product of old buzz. Now? Best Picture/Director/Screenplay nominations for Room have us feeling that Larson is solidly in the driver’s seat. Which we said back in September when Room screened in Toronto.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Pick: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Possible Dark Horse: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

What’s The Buzz: Stallone may not have the stranglehold that DiCaprio has on the category, but that doesn’t mean that anyone else he was nominated against have anything close to as good of a shot at winning. Rylance was the consensus critics’ champ this year, and maybe he’s The One Award for Bridge of Spies, but it doesn’t seem super likely. Maybe Tom Hardy (The Revenant) or Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) ride Best Picture champs to a surprise upset?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Pick: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Possible Dark Horse: Rooney Mara (Carol)

What’s The Buzz: This is easily the most interesting category of Phase 2. Because of category confusion, Mara and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) didn’t compete against Winslet at the Globes, so until the SAG Awards on January 30th, there’s no way of knowing who’s the frontrunner among the three of them. So right now, Winslet’s Globe win stands tallest. And honestly? After a nomination morning that was not overly kind to Carol (6 nominations but none in Picture/Director), The Danish Girl, or Steve Jobs, could Rachel McAdams find a way to sneak past everyone and pick up a win for Spotlight? Hell, after two Christoph Waltz wins in the past six years, would it be that crazy to see Jennifer Jason Leigh win for The Hateful Eight? This might be a true 5-person race!

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.

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[Photos: Everett Collection]