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Meghan O’Keefe: Usually this is the time of year where everyone in Hollywood is kissing each other’s butts in order to win an Oscar or get a good seat at the show. This year, however, the conversation isn’t about who could win big, but who’s going to boycott the event. The Academy has even addressed the PR nightmare by frantically vowing to change its membership in the next few years. Is this the fall of Hollywood? Is everything we hold dear being uprooted? Joe, could the Oscars be in crisis?

Joe Reid: I mean, yes? But also no. The thing about the Oscars is that they’re not just going to suddenly get cancelled. The controversy isn’t whether the Oscars cease to be, it’s whether they’ve gotten too limited in their worldview to respect or pay attention to anymore. We’ve always known that Oscar voters are partial to a certain type of movie, and we’ve more or less made our peace with the idea of “Oscar bait” (for lack of a less dumb term). But the idea that the types of movies Oscar voters will go for excludes movies made by and about people of color is what will eventually damn them for good. Is that necessarily the case? Not really. Movies by and about people of color had been doing pretty well at the Oscars in the last dozen years or so. But after two years of complete whiteout (at least among the acting nominees), it became clear that more aggressive diversity in the voting ranks was necessary. It’s not going to get fixed all at once, and next year in particular is going to be subject to a kind of scrutiny that won’t serve anyone particularly well, but here’s hoping we’re on the way to getting more movies about people of color, more and better publicity pushes for those movies, and a more diverse body of voters to reward those movies.

MO: I don’t doubt that the Oscars will pivot and figure out a way to survive the current controversy, but I do think it’s interesting that the diversity debate is eclipsing the usual conversations. By that, I mean, it feels like more people will be tuning in to see what people say about the “whiteout” and less people care if Leo finally gets his Oscar. Hollywood is a city of storytellers and the power of the Oscars is their inherent mythos. Winners get added to a list of legends. In other years, DiCaprio’s hard-fought-for win, Brie Larson’s coronation as a Hollywood’s new princess, Sly’s long-sought-after Oscar, and whatever happens in the Best Supporting Actress category would all make for compelling narratives. Now? I’m not so sure. And I think that’s a good thing???

JR: Good or bad, I think the biggest effect this controversy will have on the winners and losers is that I don’t think we’re going to be seeing a lot of movement in the acting races. Nobody’s really talking about anything else but the diversity fracas, so I don’t think there’s much oxygen for, say, a Saoirse Ronan insurgency or for anyone to make the case for Not Leo winning Best Actor. Whether or not Oscar Night offers insightful and transformative commentary on diversity in Hollywood or just a bunch of Chris Rock jokes designed to make white people squirm in their seats, I think this year’s Oscar race just got frozen in carbonite.

MO: I love the Oscars.

JR: I know.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”). Enter “The Oscar Grouch“:

BEST PICTURE

Current Pick: Spotlight
Possible Dark Horse: The Big Short
What’s The Buzz? Okay, okay, okay…so it might seem like The Revenant is the film to beat, but this year’s Oscar race is so tumultuous (and so hellbent on subverting hype) that we think Academy voters will shy away from voting for the new shoo-in and go back to Spotlight. We think The Revenant‘s surge made the former frontrunner into a scrappy underdog. However, the big news? The Big Short took home the top prize in the PGA awards. It’s very possible that The Big Short upsets both.

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Pick: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Possible Dark Horse: Alejandro G. Iñarritu (The Revenant)
What’s The Buzz? At one point, Miller was this category’s dark horse darling, but now he’s the one to beat. Mad Max: Fury Road is a directorial triumph. It’s an auteur revising his own work in blistering technicolor. Hot on his heels? The irrepressible Alejandro G. Iñarritu. We don’t know what this guy’s hold on the Academy is, but they certainly like him. But do they like him enough to give him back-to-back wins in this category?

BEST ACTOR

Current Pick: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Possible Dark Horse: Matt Damon (The Martian)
What’s The Buzz? Guys, this is Leo’s year. He’s going to finally win that Oscar, and he’s going to use his speech to thank his mom and talk about environmental issues. The camera will cut to Kate Winslet crying.

BEST ACTRESS

Current Pick: Brie Larson (Room)
Possible Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
What’s The Buzz? Brie Larson has reached the part of the campaign where she’s accepted the Golden Globe, is covering The Hollywood Reporter, and acts demure when people call her the next “Jennifer Lawrence.” She’s the favorite to win. At one point, it looked like critics were postulating that Charlotte Rampling might be able to harness a strong enough dark horse campaign to make a surprise win. However, since her recent inflammatory comments hit the internet, it looks like Saoirse Ronan still has the best shot at upsetting Larson’s stride.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Pick: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Possible Dark Horse: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
What’s The Buzz? We still think that Sly Stallone will take home his very first Oscar for returning to the role that made him great, but he should keep an eye out for Mark Ruffalo. Since the whole idea of an Oscar boycott came up, Ruffalo is the only nominee who has made headlines for expressing his own qualms about showing up. While he’s emphatically stated that he will be at the Kodak Theater come Oscar night, he’s still being written about more than his fellow nominees. His name is now in voter’s minds and everyone likes him. He could easily snatch that prize from Rocky.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Pick: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Possible Dark Horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Rooney Mara (Carol), Rachel McAdams (Spotlight), and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
What’s The Buzz? How do we put this? Everyone in this category has the potential to take the top prize. Ironically, we’re putting Kate Winslet in the top spot because she had the best “dark horse” chances of the bunch. For most of the season, the hype has centered around Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander, but we think that could lead to a vote split. Same with Leigh and McAdams. Winslet is a perennial favorite of the Academy and we think some voters will link her with Leo when they cast their ballots.

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.