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The nominations for the 68th annual Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced tomorrow, and as with every year, the question on the eve of nominations is how many new shows and performances will be able to break through into the ranks of the entrenched previous nominees. More than any other awards-giving institution, the Emmys have their favorites, and they stick to them fiercely. Last year saw Mad Men exit the stage, but that’s really the only major Emmys powerhouse to have ended, so we’re looking at the potential for a LOT of carry-over from last year’s nominees.

While there are some new shows that feel buzzy enough to break into the top categories — I’d place USA’s Mr. Robot and The CW’s Crazy Ex-Girlfriend at the top of that list — this also feels like a make-or-break year for some returning shows. Is this the year that ABC’s Black-ish makes the leap and takes over the mantle of ABC’s prestige sitcom from Modern Family? Emmy history has shown that when they love you, they love you, but when they’re over you, they drop you all at once. Last year, Modern Family lost the Outstanding Comedy Emmy (to Veep) for the first time ever. We’ll see how cold that shoulder gets this year. And if The Americans can’t break through into major Emmy recognition this year, it’s literally never going to happen.

We’ve made our cases for the performers who should get nominated, but the following are our official predictions for how things might shake out on Thursday. As always, they’re a bit more pessimistic about how exciting those nominations will be, but hope springs eternal.

Outstanding Drama Series

Mad Men surrendered the Outstanding Drama throne to the folks from Westeros last year, and there doesn’t seem like there’s any show ready to unseat them this year. Still, don’t expect shows like House of Cards or Better Call Saul to miss out on nominations. And maybe this is the year we stop acting surprised that the Emmys still love Downton Abbey. They do. They’ll love its final season too. The new series most likely to crash the party is USA’s Mr. Robot, which may well be the only show that could beat Game of Thrones for the trophy.

So that’s five slots down, two to go, and weaknesses abound. The Good Wife ended its run with a weak season. Outlander (Starz) and UnREAL (Lifetime) are buzzy shows on networks that haven’t shown much Emmy strength, historically. Orange Is the New Black was nominated last year and had a great fourth season, but it still feels like it’s been leaking buzz for two years now. If Billions were an HBO series, it would be a lock for a nomination, with its mix of antiheroes and heartless topicality. I still think it manages to unseat Homeland for the Showtime slot. And then there’s FX’s The Americans, the critical darling which has been steadfastly ignored by Emmy voters for three years running. In a stronger year for the category, they’d be a non-factor, but maybe this is the year they make that Friday Night Lights style mid-run leap to Emmy viability.