Oscar Grouch: Is ‘Jackie’ Going To Be Too Difficult For Oscar?

By Joe Reid @joereid
Published Nov. 28, 2016, 3:00 p.m. ET

We’re still a long ways away from the part of Oscar season where Academy members sit down with their ballots. With the holiday season officially upon us, now is the time when Academy members are inundated with screener DVDs and — in an ideal world, at least — watch all the movies that are hoping to be considered for awards attention. This is not always as simple as it seems. Film professionals, the kind of which are members in the Academy, don’t always see movies at the same rate as, say, critics do. Which means end-of-year screener season becomes a battle for attention at the top of Academy members’ DVD piles. Whether an Oscar contender plays as well in the living room of an Oscar voter as it does on the big screen suddenly becomes incredibly important.
For film critics and Oscar beat writers, the holidays are a time to catch up on the films that may have fallen through the cracks over the course of the year. They, too, are gifted with a bounty of screeners that they can watch while on holiday break. One such critic, Vanity Fair‘s Richard Lawson, made note of his holiday screener-viewing on social media, and since Richard is a friend of the Oscar Grouch, we asked him if he’d share with us his thoughts on what movies might play better at home than others.

Decider: You talked on social media this week about bringing screeners home to your family for Thanksgiving break. What did you bring home and what were the verdicts?
Richard Lawson: I brought home a bunch, but we watched Jackie and 20th Century Women. We also saw Manchester By the Sea in the theater. My family loved Manchester, as I knew they would. It gets the Boston area, where I’m from, just so right. And it’s beautifully acted, filmed, et cetera.
I was a little surprised that my family really, really didn’t like Jackie. But the more I thought about it, the more it made sense. I think that movie is really going to suffer on screener. It teeters on such a fine line between artful camp and outright silliness. On the big screen, in the dark, I think the film achieves the former — it’s enveloping and persuasive. But at home, surrounded by dogs and kids and your phone and other distractions, I think the movie might tip over into the latter.

My family was lukewarm about 20th Century Women, admiring the performances but not finding much of a story to grab onto. I mostly agree with them.
What did your parents’ reaction make you think about a movie like Jackie? Is it too “difficult” to resonate with Oscar voters? Does it defy expectations too much? It it a critics movie more than a “regular people” movie?
Jackie was always going to be more of a critic’s movie, because it rewards uncommon expectations. The trailers for the film may somewhat indicate that this is a strange, swirling art movie, but I think many people — who just want a Jackie Kennedy movie, not some moody little provocation — will be frustrated during and after the film. It’s just not accessible enough. Which isn’t to imply that the people who don’t like the film are somehow lacking in taste or analytical prowess. It’s just that Jackie is the kind of movie that critics train themselves into loving, if that makes sense.
What other contenders this season do you think are in danger of being too difficult to score widespread votes?
I’ll be very curious to see what happens with Moonlight. Right now, I’m predicting a healthy amount of nominations but no win. But who knows? My family loved it! But again, I’m not quite sure what that tells us, if anything.
On the flip side, then, do you think there’s a movie that we’re underestimating? Something critics may have glided over with decent but unenthusiastic praise that has the potential to wrap up Oscar voters in a swell of accessibility and emotion?
One word: Sully.
How high do you think Sully‘s ceiling is?
I think Eastwood probably isn’t in the running, but Hanks really could be, and it could land in Best Picture.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”). Enter “The Oscar Grouch“:

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester By the Sea, Fences, Silence, Jackie, Lion, Arrival, Sully, Loving
Potentially Interesting Spoiler: 20th Century Women
What’s The Buzz: The above makes for a strong Top 10, albeit one with a LOT of question marks at this early date. No one’s seen Silence, for one. Jackie might prove too weird; Loving too reserved; Fences too stagebound. And the critics awards haven’t elevated a small handful of these films to the top of the pile.

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Denzel Washington (Fences), Pablo Larrain (Jackie), Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Potentially Interesting Spoiler:Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
What’s The Buzz: At this point, even though nobody has seen his film yet, I’m going with an Underestimate Scorsese At Your Own Peril motto. In 2013, he did the same thing with The Wolf of Wall Street, waited until the last possible moment before unveiling his film. With Marty, admiration and respect are pre-sold; he almost has to knock himself out of the race. As for Affleck, I wouldn’t say it’s likely (Live By Night looks BAD, if only by the trailer), but after the whole Argo situation (where the film won Best Picture but he wasn’t even nominated for Best Director), you’d think the Academy would jump at the chance to make it up to him.

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Denzel Washington (Fences), Casey Affleck (Manchester By the Sea), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
What’s The Buzz: The early Fences screenings suggest exactly the kind of actors’ showcase that the trailer suggested, and combined with a relatively weak Best Actor field — The Founder has lost all buzz, and STILL I think Keaton can get in — means Denzel is poised for Oscar #3, unless Casey Affleck can mount an insurgency (such an insurgency might end up being hampered by sexual harassment allegations anyway).
Meanwhile, if there’s a performance in the Oscar race that could really benefit from being available on streaming, it’s Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic. It’s been almost ten years since Viggo’s last (and only) Oscar nomination for Eastern Promises; could be time for a second.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Ruth Negga (Loving), Amy Adams (Arrival)
Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
What’s The Buzz: Still a strong field, but one that seems to be solidifying around five or six women. It’ll be interesting to see if Amy Adams can ride the stellar Arrival reviews to a sixth career nomination, for a performance that is incredibly interior and cerebral. Huppert’s performance, by contrast, is incredibly dangerous and flashy, even though Elle — which deals heavily with rape and taboo sexual desire — isn’t necessarily a movie that’s built to appeal to the Academy demographic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: Dev Patel (Lion), Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Liam Neeson (Silence), Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Craig Robinson (Morris From America)
What’s The Buzz: This is the one category that is COMPLETELY up in the air, and thus the one that could be most shaped by the upcoming wave of critics’ awards. We could end up with an Oscar five that include none of the above-named actors and I wouldn’t be floored, though I’m guessing the importance of Patel’s character to his movie and the career achievements of Bridges and Neeson should give all three an advantage. As for Ali, it’s easiest for him to rise to the top of a wildly deserving group of Moonlight actors, if only because he’s the only actor whose character doesn’t change hands.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Viola Davis (Fences), Michelle Williams (Manchester By the Sea), Naomie Harris (Moonlight) , Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Molly Shannon (Other People)
What’s The Buzz: Viola Davis is campaigning for supporting, and suddenly, everyone else is an also-ran. Williams and Harris were both considered strong contenders, and I believe they still are despite neither getting Independent Spirit nominations. As for the remaining spots, I’m giving Gerwig and Kidman the edge because they’re great in some very likeable roles, and because their movies are looking likely to appear in other categories. Shannon plays a mom dying of cancer, which is a really hook-y kind of a role if enough voters actually watch Other People (which they should!).
Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.