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Captain Fantastic

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Wednesday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.

The stretch from the Golden Globe nominations to the SAG nods — this year only a span of a few days — tends to majorly shape and streamline the Oscar race. Films and performances are separated into contenders and outsiders. The acting races begin to take shape. Frontrunners become odds-on favorites. One thing that often happens is that a movie that was once considered a contender in all categories sees its chances whittled down to merely one element, often an actor. Last year was a good example. While many thought that Creed should have been a contender across the board — Best Picture, the editing, the cinematography — it ended up only being a contender for Sylvester Stallone’s supporting performance.

By far, though, the category where this “acting contender only” thing happens is in Best Actress. Movies with an acclaimed female lead performance translate into all-categories contenders at a shockingly low rate, particularly when compared to their Best Actor counterparts. I actually wrote about this at The Atlantic a couple years ago, after Wild and Gone Girl were reduced to acting categories and nothing else. Best Actress-nominated movies get 30% fewer total Oscar nominations than Best Actor movies do. In 2015 — which was a good year for Best Actress, in that two films in the category (Room and Brooklyn) were Best Picture nominees — Best Actress movies managed 15 total nominations, while Best Actor movies totaled 26 nominations.

It’s shaping up to be a similar kind of year, if the Globes and SAG nominations are anything to go by. A month ago, movies like Arrival and Jackie — and to a lesser extent Loving and 20th Century Women — were expected to be contenders in multiple categories, including Best Picture. Arrival is a big hit with pristine reviews and significant achievements in everything from visual effects to screenplay to sound. Jackie is a gorgeously rendered period piece with a strong directorial vision. And yet with every Best Picture list (and the SAG Best Ensemble category, which often predicts Best Picture), movies like Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Fences, and even Captain Fantastic have bested them. Jackie and Arrival have become one-category contenders. Best Actress or bust.

Now, this isn’t to say that the tech guilds won’t revive a movie like Arrival. Certainly it seems likely to get nominations in the sound categories. But even in tech categories where these movies should be showing up, they’re not. Look at Best Original Score, where Arrival was just ruled ineligible for utilizing other previously-produced music, and where Jackie‘s acclaimed score was left off the Globes list. And certainly when it comes to Best Picture, with the exception of Emma Stone’s La La Land, movies with strong female leads are on the cut line or worse.

So in the spirit of being part of the solution rather than part of the problem, a few For Your Considerations:

Arrival
Best Actress – Amy Adams
Best Director – Denis Villeneuve
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Production Design
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing
Best Visual Effects

Jackie
Best Actress – Natalie Portman
Best Director – Pablo Larrain
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design
Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Best Original Score

20th Century Women
Best Actress – Annette Bening
Best Director – Mike Mille
Best Supporting Actress – Greta Gerwig
Best Original Screenplay
Best Costume Design

Loving
Best Actress – Ruth Negga
Best Actor – Joel Edgerton
Best Director – Jeff Nichols
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Production Design
Best Cinematography

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of “buzziness”). Enter “The Oscar Grouch“:

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester By the Sea, Hell or High Water, Lion, Silence, Hacksaw Ridge, Fences, Arrival, Hidden Figures

Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Florence Foster Jenkins

What’s The Buzz: A nomination from SAG for its ensemble, plus some strong box-office numbers from only two screens across the country, puts Fences back into contention. We’ll see if it can stay there.

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Martin Scorsese (Silence), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge),

Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Denzel Washington (Fences)

What’s The Buzz: While a few months ago it seemed like Denzel’s double-duty of acting and directing would only look more impressive to voters, at the moment it seems like his actor buzz is fighting his director buzz. Who knew that the actor-turned-director to bet on this season would’ve been Mel Gibson?

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Casey Affleck (Manchester By the Sea), Denzel Washington (Fences), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Adam Driver (Paterson)

What’s The Buzz: Viggo got the precursor nomination he most needed; now, with Globe and SAG nods, he’s looking pretty likely to get nominated for a movie that probably wasn’t even in the top 5 of most buzzed-about titles out of Sundance.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Ruth Negga (Loving)

Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)

What’s The Buzz: Amy Adams and Meryl Streep both have better chances than Chastain to take that fifth Best Actress slot, but now that Miss Sloane has opened, there’s been an uptick of buzz for the performance. Maybe if it had opened a month or two ago?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Dev Patel (Lion), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

What’s The Buzz: Michael Shannon has come out of nowhere to take a surprise Oscar nomination before (in 2008 for Revolutionary Road). Nocturnal Animals isn’t good, but he’s good in it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Viola Davis (Fences), Michelle Williams (Manchester By the Sea), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

Potentially Interesting Spoiler: Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)

What’s The Buzz: Octavia Spencer has now gotten Golden Globe and SAG nominations, which is a much better position for her than when she started the 2013 season with early recognition for Fruitvale Station before running out of steam. Hidden Figures is peaking at the right time, and while Spencer may still have competition from her own film, she’s looking pretty good for Oscar.