The Oscar Grouch: Your Final Academy Awards Predictions

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Wednesday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.

It’s here! Oscar Week at last! Sunday’s Academy Awards will be the culmination of a turbulent year that produced some great movies. The nine nominated for Best Picture cover a remarkably wide terrain, from musicals to westerns, sci-fi to stage adaptations, independent originals to glossy true stories. And while the Oscar race has managed to boil itself down to La La Land versus Moonlight, it’s probably worth it to take a moment and recognize that we have an Oscar race between a wholly original movie musical and a fully independent depiction of black, queer youth in contemporary America. That’s not too bad.

Since we’ve talked all these categories to DEATH already, for this last pre-Oscars column, we’re going to do you a service and help you out with your Oscar pool. Predictions in every category, plus dark horses, and of course who we think should win. Best of luck!

Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival

There has been something of a groundswell of contrarian opinion about Moonlight‘s chances to take Best Picture in an upset. And while La La Land‘s commanding 14 nominations would seem to make any such notions laughable, there are circumstances that we probably shouldn’t dismiss out of hand. One of them is politics; Trump’s election threw Hollywood for a loop, and the argument goes that Moonlight winning Best Picture would be a statement against a Trump administration whose interests are hostile to minorities. Word out of Los Angeles is that there could be a groundswell building.

Another thing to consider has been recent Oscar history. While nomination count used to be a huge determining factor in which film took Best Picture, recent years have gone against that trend hard. In the past 12 years, the eventual Best Picture winner was also the nomination leader only four times.* In fact, the nomination leaders have been a good bit more successful in Best Director, matching up with that category in seven of the past twelve. And while it’s true that no film that’s been nominated for 14 Oscars has ever lost Best Picture, a) that sample size — just All About Eve and Titanic — is real small, and b) four out of eight films with 13 nominations have lost Best Picture. It’s not that crazy.

For now, we’re sticking with La La Land. But that final envelope could end up being more suspenseful than we’d figured a month ago.

*Birdman in 2014, The King’s Speech in 2010, The Hurt Locker in 2009, No Country for Old Men in 2007. In all cases except for The King’s Speech, those films were tied with another film for most nominations.

Best Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Should Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

As noted above, the overall nomination leader is much more correlative with Best Director, so Chazelle should take this.

Best Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Could Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Denzel Washington, Fences

This one is going to be a photo finish. As we’ve broken down before, Denzel’s surprise SAG win is far better an indicator of Oscar success than any of Affleck’s (MANY) precursor wins. But did Denzel’s campaign peak too early? This feels like a coin-flip situation.

Best Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone is WAY out in front on this one. If there’s going to be a surprise winner (there won’t), look for it to be a Juliette Binoche-style French revolution. But it won’t happen.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Could Win: Dev Patel, Lion
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Of the three major Oscar precursors — Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA — Ali has now lost two out of three. Aaron Taylor-Johnson took the Globe, which you could chalk up to Tom Ford’s generosity of spirit (and product) to the Hollywood Foreign Press; Dev Patel took the BAFTA, which you could chalk up to British homerism. Taylor-Johnson isn’t nominated here, but Patel is, and he’s in a Best Picture nominee to boot. Patel would be the second-youngest winner in this category ever (behind Ordinary People‘s Timothy Hutton). We still think Ali will hold on for the victory, but this is another race that has suddenly tightened.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Could Win: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences

Maybe the biggest lock on the ballot, if only because her co-nominees are either former winners (Kidman, Spencer) without a whole lot of drumbeat for a win or actresses overshadowed by their co-stars (Harris, Williams). This will now be Michelle Williams’s fourth Oscar nod without a win, though, so look out for her on her next one.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: 20th Century Women

This category could be an early indicator for La La Land‘s Best Picture chances. If it ends up taking the upset win over the far superior Kenneth Lonergan script here, don’t expect it to falter at the finish line.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: Moonlight

One way or another, Barry Jenkins is going to win an Oscar on Sunday, so look forward to that.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Moana
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Zootopia‘s been the front-runner in this category all season, and not even a great showing by Moana in the late fall could upend it.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Could Win: I Am Not Your Negro
Should Win: O.J.: Made in America

If there were no concerns about Oscar-voter squeamishness about rewarding a project that blurred the lines between film and television. O.J. would win in a walk. But those concerns do exist, and they exist in a very strong year for the category. Voters could opt for firebrand politics (I Am Not Your Negro or 13th) sentimentality (Life, Animated), or topicality (Fire at Sea).

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)
Could Win: Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Should Win: The Salesman (Iran)

It should be noted that The Salesman was already a huge threat to upset the buzzed-about-since-Cannes Toni Erdmann even before Trump’s Muslim ban shined a light on Salesman director Asghar Farhadi, who would have been barred entry to the U.S. if the ban hadn’t been struck down, and who has said he won’t attend the Oscars out of protest.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Jackie
Should Win: La La Land

Best Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Greig Fraser, Lion
Could Win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Should Win: James Laxton, Moonlight

Best Film Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Moonlight

Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Will Win: Suicide Squad
Could Win: A Man Called Ove
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond

Best Original Song
Will Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land
Could Win: “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
Should Win: “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

NOTE: The real Best Original Song wasn’t even nominated.

Best Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Jackie
Should Win: Moonlight

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Arrival

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: Arrival

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Doctor Strange
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Piper
Could Win: Pearl
Should Win: Pearl

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Ennemis Intérieurs
Could Win: Silent Nights
Should Win: Sing

Best Documentary Short Film
Will Win: Joe’s Violin
Could Win: Extremis
Should Win: 4.1 Miles

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That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will win in all six major categories — not who we think deserves to (ranked in order of “buzziness”). Enter “The Oscar Grouch“: