Reese vs. Nicole vs. Bette vs. Joan? It’s Not Too Early to Get Psyched for Best Actress at the Emmys

Yes, we’re still at least four months ahead of the Primetime Emmy nominations, and yes, we just got out from under the shadow of the Oscar behemoth. But look around you, people. Everywhere you turn, there are TV series boasting phenomenal lead actress performances. Some of them two to a show. And with Big Little Lies and Feud already killing it and American Crime and Fargo set to return with their own high standards of quality, it’s become impossible not to mentally fill in that ballot for Best Actress in a Limited Series. Because, people, it is going to be a bloodbath, even with six slots to fill.

Let’s take a look at the contenders:

• Jessica Lange and Susan Sarandon in Feud: Bette and Joan. Any other year and this would be the ballgame. Two of the finest actresses of their (or any) generation, three Academy Awards between them, both playing legendary Hollywood queens in their own right, on a show that gives them no shortage of opportunities for grandstanding and big moments. Any other year and the “Jessica or Susan?” debate alone would be enough to fuel this category to burn brighter than any others on the Emmy ballot. Particularly since the main thrust of Bette and Joan is the awards-night battle between Bette Davis and Joan Crawford over the 1962 Best Actress Academy Award. It’s just too delicious. Any other year. This year, however, they’ve got competition.

• Reese Witherspoon and Nicole Kidman in Big Little Lies. Oh, no big deal. Just two more Oscar-winning actresses at the top of their game. Reese Witherspoon in particular is giving the best performance of her career as Madeline, a Monterrey wife and mother who nurses her grudges, relishes drama, and crusades for her right to put on a school production of Avenue Q. Nicole Kidman is not quite as central to Big Little Lies and will probably be content with a nomination, but when your filler nominees are Nicole freaking Kidman, think for a second about how great your category is.
• Michelle Pfeiffer in The Wizard of Lies. It used to be that HBO ruled the mini-series/TV Movie categories with an iron fist, and a movie like The Wizard of Lies — about the Bernie Madoff Ponzi-scheme scandal and directed by Oscar-winning Barry Levinson — would have been poised to clean up. As it is, Michelle Pfeiffer’s performance as Ruth Madoff represents not only a titanic performance waiting down the road, but a bit of a comeback for Pfeiffer, an actress whose ability and beauty have always made her one of Hollywood’s best modern movie stars. And a little bit of extra narrative to throw on the heap? Pfieffer’s longtime husband, David E. Kelley, is the executive producer of Big Little Lies.

• Felicity Huffman and Regina King in American Crime. Oh, right! Television! You remember regular ol’ television. Networks and commercial breaks and such. ABC’s American Crime may be low-rated, but it’s consistently boasted some of the best acting on TV since it began two years ago. For season 3, the focus turns to modern-day immigrant farmers, wage slavery, sex slavery, all loosely situated around a family-run agricultural business in North Carolina. As with the first two seasons, Felicity Huffman takes a lead role as a member of the aforementioned agri-business family, but it’s Regina King as a social worker whose role pops most vividly in the first few episodes. King has won the Best Supporting Actress Emmy two years in a row for American Crime, but she certainly seems like a lead this time around. It’d be a hell of a competitive year for her to make a category leap, though.
• Carrie Coon in Fargo. Over the past two years, FX’s unlikely little adaptation of the Coen Brothers’ film has garnered eight acting nominations from the Television Academy. It’s impossible to think that Carrie Coon — an actress who’s already been acclaimed to the moon and back on HBO’s The Leftovers — wouldn’t attract the same kind of attention for her lead performance this spring.
• Oprah Winfrey and/or possibly Rose Byrne in The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks. Were I placing bets, I’d wager that Byrne would be placed in the supporting category, but Oprah is front and center in this HBO movie based on the bestselling true-story about a woman researching her mother’s history and finding out she was part of a medical breakthrough. It looks like Winfrey will have some big, emotional material to play, and if she gets nominated, the star power in this category would be officially off the charts.

So there they are. Ten actresses battling it out for six spots in a field without weak spots. The star power is unbelievable; between Lange, Sarandon, Witherspoon, Kidman, Pfieffer, and Winfrey, you’ve got six of the most famous women in the world. And they’re all drawing rave reviews. So who gets left off?

• Say Rose Byrne does indeed get bumped down to supporting. That’s nine.
• Say Regina King takes the path of least resistance, stays in Supporting, and wins a third-straight Emmy. Though, honestly, she’ll be facing stiff competition there too, from Big Little Lies‘ Laura Dern at the very least, not to mention Byrne and Tony-winner Renee Elise Goldsberry in Henrietta Lacks — do we have to start a whole discussion on Supporting Actress next? That’s eight.
• You’d think the weak link of the remaining eight women would be Carrie Coon, seeing as she’s the least notable “name” among who’s left. But Fargo has been such a strong Emmy contender in its first two seasons. Stick a pin in her chances and hold on to them for a moment.
• Meanwhile, if American Crime continues to sputter in the ratings, the show risks becoming an afterthought. And just judging by the early-season episode’s, Huffman’s character is far more quiet a presence in season 3 than she was in her bravura season 2. Down to seven.

I see no universe in which Jessica Lange, Susan Sarandon, or Reese Witherspoon don’t get nominated. Which leaves four women — Nicole Kidman, Michelle Pfeiffer, Carrie Coon, and Oprah Winfrey — and three slots. Kidman has the advantage in that her show has already premiered, so we know it’s great. Winfrey has the advantage of being the focal point of her movie. Coon has the advantage of being on a property we know the Emmys love. Pfeiffer has the comeback narrative. One of them isn’t going to make it. We’ve got four months to watch this all shake out.