Of all the storylines that are swirling around the 2017 Primetime Emmy Awards — nominations are only two weeks away on July 13th! — one of the biggest concerns a show that won’t receive any Emmy nominations at all. By pushing the start of its seventh season to July this year, Game of Thrones took itself out of the eligibility window for the 2016-17 TV season. Which means the show that led all others last year with 24 nominations is out of the ballgame. Which leaves a whole lot of empty space on this year’s ballot for shows looking to break into the Emmys game.
This isn’t the first time that an Emmy favorite has been absent for a year. The Sopranos did this twice, between seasons 3 and 4 and again between seasons 5 and 6. During those years, shows like Six Feet Under, 24, Deadwood, and Lost were able to jump into the vacated slots.
So with 24 nominations suddenly unaccounted for, which shows and performances are most likely to get their shot at Emmy glory? Let’s take this category by category.
Supporting Actor in a Drama
Last year, Peter Dinklage (Tyrion) ad Kit Harrington (Jon Snow) were both nominated, though they lost to the deceased charms of Ben Mendelsohn’s character in Bloodline. With Mendelsohn only eligible as a guest actor this year, this category has really opened up. So who are the most likely contenders?
- John Lithgow, The Crown. Look for Netflix’s The Crown to pick up a lot of the discarded Game of Thrones nominations (or more specifically the discarded Downton Abbey nominations). Lithgow was nominated for a Golden Globe and won the SAG Award for his performance as Winston Churchill.
- Jared Harris, The Crown. The only other actor from The Crown on the supporting ballot is Harris, who was nominated in 2012 for his role on Mad Men. Here he plays the sympathetic King George VI, plagued by illness but a good and loving father to Elizabeth. It’s a very likable role which could help his chances.
- Ed Harris, Westworld. HBO’s Westworld is another big question mark on the Emmy ballot. Will voters look to simply replace one sprawling HBO genre series for another? If so, both Harris and co-star Jeffrey Wright would be prime contenders.
- Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us. While the jury is out on how fervently the Emmys will embrace This Is Us (they haven’t been super receptive to network dramas; the last one to get a Best Drama nomination was The Good Wife in 2011), Jones was a part of the show’s most acclaimed storyline, opposite last year’s Emmy winner Sterling K. Brown.
- Asia Kate Dillon, Billions. Dillon — who identifies as gender non-binary and uses they pronouns — made headlines several weeks ago by choosing to enter their name into the Supporting Actor category, as “actor” was a less gendered distinction. They also made headlines for being a standout member of the Billions cast, especially as that series reached its endgame. Billions was not an Emmy favorite last year, not even getting nominations for its Emmy-friendly leads Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis, so expecting major-category attention for anyone in its cast is a long shot. But the added spotlight on Dillon this year could be enough to make some big headlines.
- Christian Slater, Mr. Robot. Somewhat surprisingly, Slater was left off of last year’s Emmy ballot, despite winning the Golden Globe for the same role. The heat on Mr. Robot faded some in its second season, but the Emmys sometimes operate on a bit of a delay, so Slater’s recognition for last year could come this year.
- Michael McKean, Better Call Saul. McKean’s co-star Jonathan Banks has been nominated the past two seasons, and likely this season as well, but it’s McKean who really captivated critics with his big moments this year. Perhaps the Game of Thrones vacancies are just the wiggle room he needs to get a nod.
Other Possibilities: Marvel’s Luke Cage will probably not have a big haul on nomination day, but Oscar-winner Mahershala Ali‘s acclaimed supporting performance stands a (very) outside shot, if only because of the actor’s high profile; both Christopher Eccleston and Scott Glenn have big moments in The Leftovers‘ final season that could get them noticed, though that show’s best chances lie elsewhere; in a perfect world Delroy Lindo would be reaping nominations everywhere for his energetic performance on The Good Fight; if The Handmaid’s Tale gets a big haul, Joseph Fiennes could get swept along with it; ditto for David Harbour and Stranger Things.
Official Predictions: Assuming that last year’s nominees Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul), Michael Kelly (House of Cards), and Jon Voight (Ray Donovan) stay put, expect Jon Lithgow, Michael McKean, and Jeffrey Wright to join them.
Supporting Actress in a Drama
Here’s the real free-for-all category, as THREE Game of Thrones actresses — Lena Headey, Maisie Williams, and Emilia Clarke — were nominated last year. Throw in Maggie Smith for the departed Downton Abbey and Constance Zimmer for the fell-off-a-cliff UnREAL, and you’ve got a category where only The Affair‘s Maura Tierney is expected to recur. So who steps up?
- Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things. She’s become the mascot of the adorable Stranger Things cast, and she remains the series’ most likely acting nomination.
- Winona Ryder, Stranger Things. If the voters have room in their hearts for two Stranger Things cast members, the Winona Ryder comeback story would be a great one.
- Thandie Newton, Westworld. Honestly, even if the Emmys aren’t as gaga over Westworld as HBO hopes they’ll be, Newton’s performance stood head and shoulders above everyone else and demands recognition.
- Aubrey Plaza, Legion. Even people who weren’t digging Legion made sure to mention what a standout performance Plaza was giving. It’s always tricky to bet on a new show with the Emmys, but she’s her show’s best shot at a major nod.
- Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale. Of everyone in the Handmaid’s supporting ensemble, Hulu has been pushing Strahovski the hardest. That she had a whole episode spotlighting her character certainly helps.
- Vanessa Kirby, The Crown. Somehow, Kirby has managed to avoid picking up boatloads of nominations for her best-in-show performance as Princess Margaret. Could the Emmys be the award show that corrects this error?
- Samira Wiley, Orange Is the New Black. Remember, this year’s Emmys are recognizing last year’s OITNB, so the sad fate of Poussey could end up being prime Emmy bait for Wiley, who is also on the ballot for The Handmaid’s Tale.
- Chrissy Metz, This Is Us. Metz got a Golden Globe nomination for her performance, which could be a good omen.
- Amy Brenneman, The Leftovers. She was the clear standout of the Leftovers supporting cast this season, with a spotlight episode that is second to none.
Other Possibilities: Uzo Aduba still probably has a bit of that Emmy fairy dust that won her back-to-back Emmys for Orange Is the New Black in 2014 and 2015; Ann Dowd delivers typically brilliant work as Aunt Lydia in The Handmaid’s Tale; Margo Martindale has won awards for her performance on The Americans before, and it would be foolish to underestimate her; and Patricia Clarkson has gotten raves for her House of Cards performance, but did it arrive early enough for voters to have time to watch it?
Official Predictions: With the assumption that Maura Tierney makes it, the other five slots will likely go to Millie Bobby Brown, Thandie Newton, Yvonne Strahovski, Vanessa Kirby, and Amy Brenneman.
Outstanding Drama Series
Here’s the big one. What drama series will pick up the Game of Thrones mantle?
- The Crown: It’s big, it’s sweeping, it has costumes and diplomacy. It’s everything that voters loved about Downton Abbey (British class politics!) with a big red Netflix bow.
- Westworld: There aren’t “slots” that go to certain networks in the Best Drama/Comedy categories, but it does seem crazy that HBO wouldn’t have a Best Drama nominee. (The last time that happened was 2008, the year after The Sopranos ended.) HBO clearly wants Westworld to be its next big thing. We’ll see.
- The Leftovers: This one is a much longer shot, but there is something to be said for being the best show on the ballot, right?
- Stranger Things: It’s been a whole year for the heat from Netflix’s big summer 2016 smash to cool off, and perhaps it has. Especially since The Crown is Netflix’s much bigger fish, awards-bait-wise.
- This Is Us: Again, network TV has had a bitch of a time breaking into this category lately, but This Is Us has been a huge hit, and maybe the Emmys want to celebrate that.
- The Handmaid’s Tale: It would be a breakthrough for Hulu, and it was the show on everybody’s lips at the exact right time.
Official Prediction: While the other shows will have opportunities to boot out some of last year’s other nominees (Downton Abbey is over, and Homeland and Mr. Robot seem particularly vulnerable), The Crown is going to be the big Emmy dog that will lap up all those costume and cinematography and art direction nominations that Game of Thrones so dominated. Get ready.