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Thus far in its short existence as a producer of TV originals, Amazon’s Emmy fortunes have been synonymous with Transparent. Two straight nominations for Outstanding Comedy Series, two straight wins for Jeffrey Tambor in Best Actor, eight wins in total. Transparent has been one hell of a foot in the door for Amazon, even though they lag well behind Netflix in terms of TV prestige.
So what are the chances that Amazon significantly diversifies its Emmy portfolio this year? In addition to Transparent, Amazon has comedies I Love Dick and Catastrophe that could contend in select categories. With dramas, the landscape is is a bit more sparse. Unless a show like Sneaky Pete proves to be an unexpected Emmy fave, Amazon is looking at a year where they get surpassed by Hulu (which is expected to get big nominations for The Handmaid’s Tale) for drama-series success.
But Amazon still stands a great chance at getting some big nominations this Thursday. Here are the five categories where they stand the best chance.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
It’s always a little tough to tell how successful Transparent is going to be at the Emmys because its streaming nature means we’ve finished it (and finished talking about it) long before Emmy voters get their hands on it. The third season of Transparent was a gorgeous one, with with seven nominees in Outstanding Comedy Series, this probably-a-half-hour-drama series will almost certainly find a slot. But we’re still most confident in a nomination for two-time defending champ Jeffrey Tambor for his performance as Maura, who sought a few different kinds of makeovers in season 3 and ended up less central to the season but no less exquisitely performed.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
If there’s another category where Transparent is apt to shine, it’s Supporting Actress. Between Amy Landecker, Gaby Hoffmann, Alexandra Billings, Kathryn Hahn, and Judith Light, you could field the majority of the category just with Transparent actresses, and that’s before you consider that Anjelica Huston and Cherry Jones are both eligible in Supporting this year as well. Last year, Hoffmann and Light were nominated, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be again, especially with Allison Janney and Niecy Nash exiting the category this year. In fact, while I’d still place last year’s winner Kate McKinnon as the frontrunner, Judith Light stands a decent chance at winning given the strong material she could submit for the season finale.
Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Potentially the most sentimental Emmy nomination this year could be a Guest Actress nod for the late Carrie Fisher, who played Rob’s mother on Catastrophe and who finished filming her scenes before her tragic and untimely death at the end of last year. Catastrophe might seem to be a long-shot of a show, but it did get some Emmy attention last year with a surprise Outstanding Writing nomination, a rarity for a show that isn’t nominated for Outstanding Comedy, so voters are definitely aware of this one. One last chance to recognize Carrie Fisher could be an opportunity Emmy voters can’t pass up.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Remember a few years ago when Outstanding Actor in a Comedy was the biggest wasteland category at the Emmys, having to settle for the likes of Ricky Gervais in Derek? That’s kind of where Actor in a Drama is now, especially once you get past the big contenders like Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), and Rami Malek (Mr. Robot). And while the Emmys could always just default to Kevin Spacey and Liev Schrieber like they always do, there’s a good chance that they’ll opt for Billy Bob Thornton, who won a surprise Golden Globe last winter for his performance in Goliath.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Once the best kept secret in comedy, it seems like everybody has finally caught on to Kathryn Hahn. Which is good news for her and good news for her critically acclaimed but little-buzzed series I Love Dick. Lead Actress in a Comedy is crowded as hell, especially with Allison Janney levelling up to lead for Mom. But Hahn’s performance is a scorcher, she’s incredibly respected and well-liked as a TV performer, and in a category without a whole lot of dramedy contenders, her role could be seen as having a lot of heft.
