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Veep

Sunday night’s Primetime Emmy Awards feature a lineup of comedy nominees that reflect how strong the comedy landscape is. From the formal daring of shows like Atlanta and Master of None to a star-driven vehicle like Grace & Frankie; from the personal comedy that only cable can provide like Better Things to shows like Black-ish and Mom showing that network sitcoms can still be daring. But we all know that there is one big dog in the yard that is poised to keep all those shows on the bench for another year: HBO’s Veep, which is setting up to win its third consecutive Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy. Even more impressive is its star, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who is the odds-on favorite to win her sixth consecutive trophy for Outstanding Lead Actress. (This doesn’t count the Emmys she won for Seinfeld or The New Adventures of Old Christine, either.)

And before I continue, let me just say: Veep is a great show, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus is a once-in-a-generation comedic talent. I was just flipping through channels the other day and came upon the Seinfeld where Elaine was disturbed to find that her date “took it out” as they were about to kiss goodnight. It’s no overstatement to call that scene a masterwork in comedic verve and timing.

So honestly, if there is anybody who deserves to win six consecutive Emmys for the same role, it’s Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

But this is the Emmys, and award shows thrive on spontaneity and unpredictability. So a year where Veep wins for the third time and JLD for the sixth just won’t be as fun or as interesting as it would be if there were some upsets. Also … not to put too fine a point on it, but Veep slumped in its sixth season. Or at least some of us here at Decider thought so. While it finished strong, it would still be pretty uninspiring if a slumping show took Outstanding Comedy simply because Emmy voters were used to checking off the same box.

But speaking realistically: what shows have a reasonable chance of unseating the champ? And even more pertinently: do any of the nominated actresses have a chance to knock Julia Louis-Dreyfus off her perch? Let’s break down the odds.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Veep‘s Competition:

Atlanta
Black-ish
Master of None
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

No Chance: If Kimmy was ever going to win this category, it would have been a couple years ago. While it’s still a strong show, it’s lost a lot of its awards-y heat to Netflix neighbor Master of None. Odds: 125-1

Slim Chance: It’s weird to think back just three years ago and remember that it used to be Modern Family we wondered about ever relinquishing their Outstanding Comedy crown. These days, ModFam‘s Emmy nominations are running on the fumes of Emmys past. The Emmys rarely return to a show they’ve gone cold on, and Modern Family didn’t have the kind of buzzy rebound season that would make such a return possible. Odds: 99-1

If Emmy Voters Are a Year Late: This does sometimes happen. The Emmy Awards can sometimes behave like a giant ocean liner. They’ll change course, but it can take them a long time. Sometimes, you’ll see a show or a performance win an Emmy the year after everybody expected them to. Like how Julianna Margulies didn’t win for The Good Wife until its second season. Which could mean a reason to hope for shows like Master of None or Silicon Valley, because you’d have thought if they were going to win, it would be after a splashy debut season (Master) or a season when buzz seemed to crest (Silicon). As a bonus, a win for Master of None would actually be honoring a second season where the show got even better. The odds still aren’t super great, but there’s a rationale in place if it does happen. Odds: Master of None 45-1; Silicon Valley 35-1

If Emmy Voters Are Feeling Edgy: If this was the Golden Globes, Atlanta would have this in the bag. Emmy voters are rarely that cool, nor rarely that inclined to hop to the hot new show. But a win for Atlanta would be huge, signifying a Television Academy willing to recognize fresh, artistic work in the comedy medium. I wouldn’t hold my breath, but Donald Glover’s series certainly has the buzz it would need. Odds: 18-1

If Emmy Voters Are Feeling Political: The series with the best chance of knocking Veep off its perch is ABC’s Black-ish, for several reasons. It’s the best sitcom on network TV, for one thing. And of all the shows on the ballot, Black-ish is the most of-the-moment. Which in this case means it addressed the Trump election head-on. Topicality doesn’t necessarily make a show better (though in this case, Black-ish was excellent), but it does give a show that extra sheen necessary for some Emmy voters to make it their #1. A win for Black-ish Says Something about the ability of TV to react to a cultural moment. Or something. Look, this is a great show, and it would be a hugely deserving win, that’s the point. Our money is still going on Veep, but the race could be closer than you think. Odds: 7-1

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Julia’s Competition

Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Jane Fonda, Grace & Frankie
Allison Janney, Mom
Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie

No Chance: Nothing at all against Grace & Frankie, which is a perfectly pleasant show to pass the time with, but Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin are on this Emmy ballot primarily for their star power. And good for them! What’s a long and distinguished career for if not to get star-power laurels later in life. But Tomlin didn’t have much of a chance in previous years, and that was before Fonda hopped onto the category and started splitting whatever Grace & Frankie voting bloc exists. Odds (for both): 155-1

Slim Chance: Ellie Kemper is the indomitably cheery face of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, but this season, Kimmy’s story took a definite back seat to the superior Titus storylines, leaving Kemper with her least Emmy-friendly season so far. A nomination will have to be her reward. Odds: 101-1

Can’t Ever Count Her Out: Julia Louis-Dreyfus is the reigning Queen of the Emmys, there can be no doubt. But Allison Janney is no slouch either. She’s won seven career Emmys, including four for The West Wing, two for Mom in the Supporting Actress category, and a Guest Actress win for Masters of Sex a few years ago. And if you think moving up to Lead Actress for Mom puts her out of her depth, know that she did the same thing for The West Wing and won two more Emmys. That said … Janney isn’t unbeatable. Last year, she lost Supporting Actress to SNL‘s Kate McKinnon. It could be that the Mom heat is off. But she’s always one great episode submission away from taking home another trophy. Odds: 38-1

Beginner’s Luck: The thing about the Pamela Adlon nomination is that she was a dark horse to even make it into this category, but now that she’s here, clearly the Emmy voters like what she’s doing on Better Things. We don’t know whether she squeaked onto the ballot in seventh place or was a strong vote leader. It’s her first year nominated, so we don’t know how well voters respond to her. She’s the true wild card of this category, and until proven otherwise, wild cards get better odds than nominees who have already been nominated and lost before. Odds: 28-1

This One Could Happen: If anybody is going to stand between JLD and Veep Emmy No. 6, it’s going to be Tracee Ellis Ross, who not only has all of the above-stated reasons to Black-ish behind her, but she also recently won a Golden Globe (there’s no overlap in the voting bodies, but sometimes seeing someone win an award is a subliminal hint that it’s okay to vote for them) and in general seems like an actress who is “due” an Emmy breakthrough. Black-ish had a great season, and Ellis was particularly strong during Rainbow’s pregnancy storyline, a storyline that provided comedy and tears, a classic Emmy combination. Odds: 14-1

Where to stream Veep