Can HBO Survive 2018 Without ‘Game of Thrones’?

HBO is home to arguably the most popular show on television, but Game of Thrones won’t be returning for its eighth and final season until 2019. So what does the Home Box Office look like in 2018? Can the premium cable network continue to bring in new subscribers (not to mention hold on to current ones) without the strength of Jon, Dany, and the Night King’s army of White Walkers? We got our first sense of the answers to these questions at Winter 2018 TCA, where HBO presented an array of brand new shows, docs, films, and specials: the Adam McKay dramedy Succession, comedies Barry and 2 Dope Queens, HBO films Fahrenheit 451 and Paterno, and the documentary The Zen Diaries of Garry Shandling.

Everything looked good, everything had that HBO prestige power, but without a traditional executive session up top to set the tone for what HBO was jazzed about in 2018, nothing popped as “the” show to fill the monster zombie ice dragon-sized hole left by their big breadwinner. If anything, what stood out was that HBO was filling the void with a bunch of high-quality smaller hits. By “smaller,” I don’t just mean these titles come with an obviously slimmer budget — but they do — but that with the exception of Succession, none of the titles previewed were designed to be on-going multi-season dramas, i.e. tentpoles. You can see a world where 2 Dope Queens could be expanded beyond four specials or that Barry slips into HBO’s stalwart comedy stable, but those aren’t the kind of shows that necessarily drive major subscriber drives. They gain critical kudos and cult audiences, but not ratings.

The big news to come out of TCA only seems to highlight this shift even more: Ronan Farrow has a three-year deal with HBO to produce a series of investigative documentary specials. HBO has a slew of high-profile documentaries on the horizon, including another newly announced one featuring Jane Fonda, but again, as popular as documentaries are, they aren’t exactly selling Errol Morris Funkos at Comic-Con. (I mean, they should, but that’s a whole other conversation.)

So what could fill the Game of Thrones void? Well, the one series drama presented at TCA, Succession, is a wee bit like Game of Thrones mixed with The Big Short. A wee bit. It’s a dramedy about the power struggle within a hyper-rich media family headed by the Rupert Murdoch-esque Logan Roy (Brian Cox). The show’s creator, Jesse Armstrong, demurred when asked if the show was based upon his existing script about Murdoch, explaining that the Murdoch family was “deeply in the background.” The team also looked at the Hearsts, or the British Royals, or even Imperial Rome. The allure of placing the power struggle within a media family came from the inherent chaos of the business. Executive Producer Adam McKay explained, “Media’s the perfect choice for their empire because it’s…always in flux…and at the same time, incredibly powerful.” So, HBO’s got another kind of juicy, family power drama in the pipeline, but it’s still unclear if it’s the kind of show that will appeal to the average Game of Thrones viewer. Even though the show deals with an uber-rich family, the production itself has a stripped down feel — you know, like The Big Short.

The glossiest, most hype-worthy title previewed at TCA was undoubtedly Fahrenheit 451. The HBO film is a “modern” adaptation of Ray Bradbury’s seminal dystopian classic about book burning. Writer, director, and Executive Producer Ramin Bahrani said the rise of the internet would be “paramount” to his version of the tale. He said, “Bradbury was very concerned with mass entertainment, Reader’s Digest, quick soundbites…” because he believed they would erode our ability to read with comprehension. A sizzle reel for the film made it look slick, exciting and dramatic. The film also packs the star power of Michael B. Jordan, Michael Shannon, and Sofia Boutella, but again, it’s just a film. It’s not an ongoing series that can alleviate the sagging weight left by Game of Thrones‘ absence this year.

What else does HBO have coming down the pipeline? Alan Ball’s new drama, Here and Now debuts in February, Westworld is back for Season 2 this spring, and a number of limited series — including Sharp Objects, My Brilliant Friend, Gentleman Jack, and The New Pope – are all slated to debut something in 2018. None of these programs was previewed at TCA, so it’s unclear how much confidence HBO has in them.

But HBO still has confidence. Namely, it has pride in its programming. During the panel for The Zen Diaries of Garry Shandling, director Judd Apatow explained precisely why the two-part, four-hour-long documentary felt at home at the premium cable network. Apatow said, “The Larry Sanders Show lit the way for what HBO could be.” What he meant was that Shandling’s audacious comedic imagination helped create a new gold standard for artistic quality. HBO’s lineup followed suit. This level of quality control is clearly still important for the channel. It’s a point of pride and the source of their swagger. Perhaps that’s the big takeaway.

HBO’s 2018 lineup is shaping up to be as creative and challenging and entertaining as ever. Maybe the question isn’t can the channel survive, because of course it can. Maybe the question is can HBO reclaim its identity outside the smash fantasy hit. If so, then the 2018 line up, full of diverse voices and thoughtful social criticism, may in fact be an affirmation of what HBO is.