2018 Oscar Nomination Preview Spectacular: Numbers vs. Feelings

By Joe Reid @joereid
Published Jan. 22, 2018, 9:04 a.m. ET

Predicting the Oscar nominations has always been a combination of reading tea leaves, doing the funky math of adding up precursor success, and taking the temperature of the room, that “room” being all of Hollywood. A lot of it is taking various shots in the dark. We know a good deal about what movies have been resonating with award voters — we know from the Golden Globes, the SAGs, the BAFTAs, various critics awards — but we don’t know everything. The gulf between doing 75% on your Oscar nomination predictions and 100% is a wide one indeed.

In making these Oscar predictions, I’m leaning heavily on the precursors, just to see if they still matter as much as we think. Here’s a quick guide to the metrics I’m using:

  • Globe = the Golden Globe Awards, voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press, a tiny group of journalists who have no overlap with the Academy
  • SAG = the Screen Actors Guild, composed of every working actor (and many non-working actors) and a much larger voting pool than the actors’ branch of the Academy
  • AFI = the American Film Institute, which issues a top 10 movies every year
  • NBR = the National Board of Review, a critics-and-other-writer-types organization that honors a top 10 movies and other awards
  • NYFCC = New York Film Critics Circle
  • LAFCA = Los Angeles Film Critics Association
  • NSFC = National Society of Film Critics, the above 3 being the most prominent and influential of the critics’ awards
  • PGA = Producers Guild of America, who nominate a top 10 films
  • DGA = Directors Guild of America, which was historically the best predictor of the Oscars’ Best Picture category
  • WGA = Writers Guild of America, a good barometer of guild support (the guilds tend to have much better overlap with the actual Academy membership), though one whose restrictive rules mean a lot of top scripts end up ineligible (as Three Billboards was this year)
  • ACE = American Cinema Editors
  • ASC = American Society of Cinematographers
  • TIFF = Toronto International Film Festival, whose People’s Choice Award has long been an indicator of Oscar success

Going by the combined math of all these precursors, I’m listing this year’s possible nominees in the order of how they did this year. But that’s only half the story. Every year, we get left-field nominees that the precursors never saw coming, and those all come down to those ephemeral feelings. They’re a lot harder to guess. So take the predictions below as a kind of exercise in melding analytics and intuition. The truth will always lie somewhere in the middle. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow morning.

photo: Everett Collection

BEST PICTURE

The Locks:

Lady Bird
Major Precursors: 9/13 (Globes, AFI, NBR, NYFCC, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, ACE)
Greta Gerwig’s story about growing up restless in Sacramento has been the very definition of a crowd-pleaser, and the film’s cast — from Saoirse Ronan, to Laurie Metcalf, Lucas Hedges, Beanie Feldstein, Timothée Chalamet, and Tracy Letts — could not be better or more likeable ambassadors.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Major Precursors: 8/13 (Globes, PGA, DGA, TIFF, BAFTA, SAG, AFI, ACE)
It likely would have gone 8/11 if Martin McDonagh’s script had been eligible for the WGA. I wrote after the Golden Globes about the emotional and “timely” resonance that this film has experienced, despite being controversial in many circles.

Get Out
Major Precursors: 8/13 (Globes, AFI, NBR, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, ACE)
There’s a lot of social commentary in Jordan Peele’s film, though it comes in a package that Oscar voters haven’t always been receptive to. This year feels like an exception.

The Shape of Water
Major Precursors: 8/13 (Globes, AFI, BAFTA, PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ASC)
People who haven’t seen this movie don’t seem to realize the kind of appeal it holds. Yes, there is a fish-man, and yes there is human/fish-man sex, but there’s a very Old Hollywood vibe at play here; a nostalgia that still manages to be about marginalized characters. It’s a love story without men and a love letter to the movies that doesn’t invoke the studio system. It’s kind of perfect.

Dunkirk
Major Precursors: 8/13 (Globes, AFI, NBR, BAFTA, PGA, DGA, ACE, ASC)
Respected-but-not-adored seems to have become the Dunkirk brand this awards season, but that respect is pretty massive. Nolan’s only had one of his films end up as a Best Picture nominee (Inception in 2010), but this looks very safe to be his second.

Call Me By Your Name
Major Precursors: 7/13 (Globes, AFI, NBR, LAFCA, BAFTA, PGA, WGA)
There’s a cynical temptation to point to the fate of Carol in 2015 — the last period-set LGBTQ film from a gay director — and think that film’s Best Picture shutout bodes ill for this one. But there’s been pretty widespread appreciation for this across the board.

On the Bubble:

The Post
Major Precursors: 5/13 (Globes, AFI, NBR, PGA, ACE)
The Post would seem to tick all the classic “Oscar-bait” boxes, and four of Spielberg’s last seven films have been been Best Picture nominees. But did the movie wait too long to open wide and build a proper buzz? A Best Picture snub would be a shock, even if the numbers have been weak.

The Big Sick
Major Precursors: 4/13 (AFI, SAG, PGA, WGA)
Small comedies haven’t had as difficult a time getting nominated as they used to, since the Best Picture field was expanded. It’s a hugely likeable movie with great guild support.

I, Tonya
Major Precursors: 4/13 (Globes, PGA, WGA, ACE)
Few movies this year have been more hotly discussed, debated, and disagreed about. In this case, the controversy is good, as it was at the top of every conversation right around the time Oscar ballots went out. Easily the strongest late-breaking buzz. Feels like it’s in.

Long Shots:

Molly’s Game
Major Precursors: 3/13 (PGA, WGA, ACE)
This movie has better numbers than you might think, but it still feels like an all-or-nothing bid on a Jessica Chastain nomination.

Mudbound
Major Precursors: 2/13 (SAG, WGA)
The Netflix curse may well be real; it’s easy to see how a theatrical campaign (especially if it made money) could have helped build buzz. But do the newer, younger, more diverse Academy members really care about keeping the red menace of Netflix away?

The Florida Project
Major Precursors: 2/13 (AFI, NBR)
Everybody who sees it seems to fall in love with it, but have enough people seen it?

Predicted nominees:
*There can be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, based on how the votes fall. I’m currently predicting nine:

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Lady Bird
  4. Get Out
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Call Me By Your Name
  7. The Post
  8. I, Tonya
  9. The Big Sick

photo: Everett Collection

BEST ACTOR
Locks:
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Major Precursors: 5/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA, NYFCC, LAFCA)

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Major Precursors: 4/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA, NSFC)

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Major Precursors: 3/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)

2018 has settled into a very interesting classic Oscar-season paradigm, where one performer racks up all the critics awards, while a more sentimental favorite (for one reason or another) ends up cleaning up at the big ceremonies. Chalamet has been the clear precursor fave, but Gary Oldman’s long and accomplished career appears to be pushing him to the front of the line. It’s also worth celebrating that two months ago, we were worried that Daniel Kaluuya might get passed over amid the Get Out love, but that has decidedly not been the case.

Likely:
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, SAG)

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, BAFTA)

Possibly:
Tom Hanks, The Post
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, NBR)

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, SAG,)

Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Major Precursors: 0/7 

Here’s where it could get interesting. Four actors with very similar on-paper cases, all of them with interesting Oscar history. Franco feels like a total lock, and Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t ever miss, really, so it feels tempting to just say that is that. But Phantom Thread was verrrry slow to open, and James Franco’s sexual-misconduct scandal happened during the Oscar voting window, which could make room for either Hanks (who is maybe not the Oscar shoo-in he once was; that Captain Phillips snub still stings) or Washington (who feels like he might be amassing Captain Fantastic-style lowkey buzz). And watch out for Pattinson; everybody who sees that movie utterly raves about him.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Timothy Chalamet
  2. Gary Oldman
  3. Daniel Kaluuya
  4. James Franco
  5. Daniel Day-Lewis

Photo: Everett Collection

BEST ACTRESS

Locks:

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Major Precursors: 5/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA, LAFCA, NSFCA)

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Major Precursors: 4/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA, NYFCC)

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Major Precursors: 3/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Major Precursors: 3/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)

Hawkins emerged as the critical champ, but really, the precursors have been in lockstep on all four of these women this year. McDormand won the Globe and the SAG, but it will be interesting to see how this race evolves once the Oscar nominations hit.

Possible:

Meryl Streep, The Post
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, NBR)

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, SAG)

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Major Precursors: 1/7 (Globe)

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Major Precursors: 1/7 (Globe)

It is downright bizarre to see Meryl Streep having trouble gaining traction in an awards race for a performance that is by far her best in a decade. It lends credence to the idea that SAG voters just didn’t get The Post screeners on time. But then there is Judi Dench, another huge Oscar favorite, sitting on Globe and SAG nominations and starring in a pleasant but not great Stephen Frears movie, just like Streep was in Florence Foster Jenkins last year. Chastain is good enough to deserve a surprise nod, and Williams got good, sympathetic press for her All the Money in the World reshoot-salary controversy, but at this point, either of them would be a surprise.

Predicted nominees:

  1. Frances McDormand
  2. Sally Hawkins
  3. Saoirse Ronan
  4. Margot Robbie
  5. Meryl Streep

photo: Everett Collection

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Locks:

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Major Precursors: 7/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA, NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFCA)

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Major Precursors: 3/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)

Dafoe has enjoyed the most dominant precursor run you can possibly enjoy, but unlike actors in recent years like J.K Simmons or Jared Leto, Dafoe doesn’t seem positioned to collect all the top trophies. It’s Rockwell’s semi-redeemed racist cop character who appears to be resonating with voters.

Possibly:

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, SAG)

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Major Precursors: 2/7 (SAG, BAFTA)

Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Major Precursors: 1/7 (Globe)

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, SAG)

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, BAFTA)

Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Major Precursors: 0/7

There’s a huge scrum at the bottom of this pile, with each of these performers having missed out on at least one crucial precursor. The case for Michael Stuhlbarg as a dark horse — a la Michael Shannon last year for Nocturnal Animals or Tom Hardy for The Revenant — is that the movie is strong in other categories, and everybody still raves about his big clip scene. If there’s a Laura-Dern-in-Wild this year, it’ll be him.

Predicted nominees:

  1. Willem Dafoe
  2. Sam Rockwell
  3. Richard Jenkins
  4. Woody Harrelson
  5. Michael Stuhlbarg

photo: Everett Collection

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Major Precursors: 7/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA, NBR, LAFCA, NSFCA)

Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Major Precursors: 3/7 (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)

These two have been ahead of the supporting actress pack since the Toronto Film Festival in September. Metcalf cleaned up in the critics awards, but Janney’s Golden Globe and SAG wins signaled a shift in momentum.

Possibly:

Hong Chau, Downsizing
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, SAG)

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, SAG)

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Major Precursors: 2/7 (Globe, BAFTA)

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Major Precursors: 1/7 (SAG)

Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Major Precursors: 1/7 (NYFCC)

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Major Precursors: 1/7 (BAFTA)

Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Major Precursors: 1/7 (BAFTA)

I mean … roll the dice and take your chances. Everybody here has one good reason to doubt them: Chau is repping a movie no one loves, Spencer’s role is incredibly small/inconsequential, Blige has the Netflix albatross around her neck, Manville and Scott Thomas feel like very Brit-only selections (unfortunately). With a field this muddled, why couldn’t Tiffany Haddish crash that party? I’m keeping the faith.

Predicted nominees:

  1. Allison Janney
  2. Laurie Metcalf
  3. Hong Chau
  4. Mary J. Blige
  5. Tiffany Haddish

Photos: Getty Images

BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:

  1. Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
  2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
  4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
  5. Jordan Peele, Get Out

Close behind: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name; Steven Spielberg, The Post
Best-case longshots: Dee Rees, Mudbound; Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Wild card: Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

The second that Natalie Portman called out the patriarchy at the Golden Globes, this category became all about representation. Whether or not Greta Gerwig or Dee Rees (or Jordan Peele, for that matter) can get nominated will really define a lot of what the conversation around Tuesday’s nominations will be. This category could go a lot of ways. I’m not un-convinced that Gillespie won’t pull a Lenny Abrahamson and grab a nominations no one was expecting. I also wouldn’t rule out either Rees or Baker pulling off a “lone director” nod (no corresponding Best Picture citation); that’s only been done once in the expanded Best Picture era, with Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher in 2014.

The rest of the Oscar ballot is below…

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted nominees:

  1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. Lady Bird
  3. Get Out
  4. The Post
  5. I, Tonya

Close behind: Phantom Thread
Best-case long shot: The Big Sick
Wild card: The Shape of Water

The battle between Martin McDonagh, Greta Gerwig, and Jordan Peele for the win in this category is going to be wild, but for now, it’s a pretty wild four-way race for the final two spots, with The Shape of Water as a wild card. It’s not really a screenplay-first kind of film, but if voters love it a lot, it could get swept in.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted nominees:

  1. Call Me By Your Name
  2. Molly’s Game
  3. Mudbound
  4. Disaster Artist
  5. Victoria and Abdul

Close behind: Logan
Best-case long shot: The Lost City of Z
Wild card: Wonder

The disparity between the stacked Original Screenplay category and the comparatively anemic Adapted category is vast. In some ways that’s good — it will take a lot to screw Mudbound out of a nomination here, I don’t care how much Hollywood hates Netflix. But it’s generally better to have a surfeit of Oscar bait in the Original category, because that’s where the really fun long shots rely. Will it really be all that exciting if Last Flag Flying or Wonderstruck shows up as a surprise nominee? Logan could make headlines as the rare action superhero movie to attract love for its screenplay.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted nominees:

  1. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
  2. Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
  3. Dan Lausten, The Shape of Water
  4. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
  5. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name

Close behind: Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
Best-case long shot: Matthew Libatique, mother!
Wild card: Ben Davis, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

A few good storylines here, including Roger Deakins looking for his 14th Oscar nomination and first time, and Rachel Morrison looking to be the first woman nominated in this category ever.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted nominees:

  1. Beauty and the Beast
  2. Phantom Thread
  3. The Post
  4. I, Tonya
  5. The Greatest Showman

Close behind: Victoria and Abdul
Best-case long shot: Wonder Woman
Wild card: The Shape of Water

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted nominees:

  1. Blade Runner 2049
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Beauty and the Beast
  4. Dunkirk
  5. The Greatest Showman

Close behind: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best-case long shot: Wonderstruck
Wild card: Downsizing

BEST EDITING
Predicted nominees:

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Get Out
  5. Baby Driver

Close behind: The Post
Best-case long shot: Lady Bird
Wild card: I, Tonya

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Predicted nominees:

  1. Coco
  2. Loving Vincent
  3. The Breadwinner
  4. Ferdinand
  5. Despicable Me 3

Close behind: The Boss Baby
Best-case long shot: The LEGO Batman Movie
Wild card: Big Bad Fox

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Predicted nominees:

  1. The Square (Sweden)
  2. In the Fade (Germany)
  3. Loveless (Russia)
  4. A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  5. Foxtrot (Israel)

Close behind: The Insult (Lebanon)
Best-case long shot: On Body and Soul (Hungary)
Wild card: Felicité (Senegal)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted nominees:

  1. Jane
  2. Last Men in Aleppo
  3. Icarus
  4. Faces Places
  5. City of Ghosts

Close behind: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Best-case long shot: Strong Island
Wild card: Long Strange Trip

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted nominees:

  1. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
  2. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
  3. John Williams, The Post
  4. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour
  5. Carter Burwell,Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Close behind: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Best-case long shot: Carter Burwell, Wonderstruck
Wild card: Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted nominees:

  1. “Remember Me,” Coco
  2. “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
  3. “Mighty River,” Mudbound
  4. “The Star,” The Star
  5. “Tell Me How Long,” Chasing Coral

Close behind: “Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name
Best-case long shot: “If I Dare,” Battle of the Sexes
Wild card: “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever,” Fifty Shades Darker

There’s always one super-weird nominee in this category, and I’m going with the song from the Netflix eco-doc Chasing Coral (sung by Kristen Bell!). Meanwhile, people are gonna be mad if Sufjan Stevens misses a nomination for his Call Me By Your Name songs, but I just don’t think this category is on that wavelength.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR STYLING
Predicted nominees:

  1. Darkest Hour
  2. Wonder
  3. Bright

Close behind: Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
Best-case long shot: I, Tonya
Wild card: Ghost in the Shell

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted nominees:

  1. Blade Runner 2049
  2. War of Planet of the Apes
  3. The Shape of Water
  4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  5. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2

Close behind: Alien: Covenant
Best-case long shot: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
Wild card: Dunkirk

BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted nominees:

  1. Blade Runner 2049
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Baby Driver
  5. The Greatest Showman

Close behind: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best-case long shot: Get Out
Wild card: Beauty and the Beast

BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted nominees:

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Blade Runner 2049
  4. Logan
  5. Baby Driver

Close behind: Wonder Woman
Best-case long shot: Get Out
Wild card: mother!