Emmys 2018: Who Will Win? Who SHOULD Win?

Monday night’s Emmy Awards will be the culmination of weeks and weeks worth of wondering: how are we going to survive a whole evening of Colin Jost and Michael Che?

Kidding! I’m kidding. Monday night’s Emmys will be a fascinating coronation for the best of TV this year. In the comedy categories, the absence of Veep means that quite a few categories that had, until recently, been totally locked down, are now thrillingly up for grabs. In the drama categories, the return of Game of Thrones means the last two Best Drama winners — GOT and The Handmaid’s Tale — will be up against each other in the top categories.

If you’re looking to get ahead of the curve, we put together an overview of the major categories. Who will win? Who should win? Read on…

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
The Americans
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

Will Win: All due respect to sentimental fave The Americans, which is riding its last chance to win an Emmy, this one’s going to come down to the last two champions in this category. Game of Thrones was ineligible last year, leaving the door open for The Handmaid’s Tale to make Hulu history. And while neither Handmaid’s second season nor GOT‘s seventh were their best-reviewed, they both held onto their positions as shows that were very much of the conversation. Emmy voters might wait to award the Westerosi spectacle in its final season and give The Handmaid’s Tale a second win here.

Should Win: While Stranger Things and Westworld were both far more successful at avoiding sophomore slumps than I thought they would be, let’s hand this to The Americans for that killer finale episode alone.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Ed Harris, Westworld
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld

Will Win: Last year’s winner, Sterling K. Brown, has really become an irresistible awards magnet. I’d say that, barring a groundswell of surprising Ozark enthusiasm we never saw coming, it’s Brown’s to lose, with dark horse Matthew Rhys coming up on the outside.

Should Win: Getting bumped up from last year’s supporting nominations, Jeffrey Wright stepped into the center ring on Westworld this season and delivered a performance that was by turns tragic and terrifying.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Claire Foy, The Crown
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Keri Russell, The Americans
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Will Win: It’s truly insane that Claire Foy, after having delivered two seasons as strong as she’s been on The Crown, feels like an also-ran in this category. But she really doesn’t have a hook, does she? Moss is the defending champ, Russell is the sentimental favorite representing her show’s final season, and Sandra Oh is the exciting newcomer to the category. I tend to not be an optimistic predictor, and many indicators say Emmy voters won’t like Elisabeth Moss any less this year, I’m still going to say Sandra Oh saves my Emmy night and wins.

Should Win: Read the above-linked article. It’s Sandra Oh.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Matt Smith, The Crown

Will Win: Dinklage is the former champion in this category, and Tyrion had a very strong season last summer. As did Jaime, honestly, so I wouldn’t be all that shocked if Coster-Waldau took his first nomination all the way to the podium. But I’m putting my money on Matt Smith to take the Emmy home for The Crown. John Lithgow won last year for the same show, and the awards drumbeat for him might have been masking significant love for Smith’s performance.

Should Win: David Harbour is great, but I would truly love it if Mandy Patinkin‘s years of committed, intense work opposite Claire Danes’s volcanic Carrie Mathison finally got rewarded.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale
Millie Bobbie Brown, Stranger Things
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Lena Heady, Game of Thrones
Vanessa Kirby, The Crown
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale

Will Win: Two years ago, everybody assumed that Lena Headey had this award in the bag for her work during Cersei’s wildfire season of vengeance on Game of Thrones. Last year, everybody figured Millie Bobby Brown was going to win for becoming a pop culture sensation as Eleven on Stranger Things. Do either of them get their make-up award? The Emmys can sometimes deliver on a time delay. The other contenders here are a pair of Handmaid’s Tale winners from last year: Dowd (who won in Supporting) and Bledel (who won in Guest Actress). The chance of splitting each other’s vote (and Yvonne Strahovski pulling votes as well) makes me lean in Lena Headey‘s direction.

Should Win: Thandie Newton once again delivered the best performance on Westworld and should get a trophy for it. Her Maeve went even deeper into her own abilities, essentially leading her own side-story all season.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Atlanta
Barry
black-ish
Curb Your Enthusiasm
GLOW
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Silicon Valley
The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Will Win: No Veep. No Modern Family. One of these seven shows will win a Best Comedy Emmy for the first time. Atlanta had all the momentum last year, but Amazon’s Mrs. Maisel is this year’s hot new show. That said, on the network side, if black-ish is ever going to win this award, it’s now or never, after a season that was topical, buzzy, and a little dramatic. (Too dramatic? My guess is Emmy voters won’t think so.)

Should Win: I almost want to reward Kimmy Schmidt for having such a zippy, funny, bounce-back season. But by a wide margin, my favorite of these show is GLOW, which in its second season became an even stronger ensemble series while keeping its rebelliously funny spirit.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
William H. Macy, Shameless

Will Win: Donald Glover is the defending champion, and we know how much the Emmys love their defending champions. But they also love it when HBO blends comedy, drama, violence, and shows about Hollywood. And they surely love Ted Danson, historically speaking. It still feels like The Good Place is more of a fanboy fave than a Television Academy fave, so I’m putting my chips on Bill Hader to win for Barry.

Should Win: Ted Danson spent a whole season walking the perfect line between dastardly and sweetly naive, and he was never less than fully, hilariously delightful while doing it. He deserves a separate Emmy for each episode of season 2.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Allison Janney, Mom
Issa Rae, Insecure
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish
Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie

Will Win: Quick, somebody grab an Emmy before Julia Louis-Dreyfus gets back! Janney’s winning movie awards now, she doesn’t need your puny Emmys. This one’s going to be a race between the two most recent Golden Globe winners in this category, Brosnahan and Ross. Ross has been putting in the work on black-ish for years, but Rachel Brosnahan and The Marvelous Mrs.Maisel have everything Emmy voters have always looked for, from hammy performance scenes to period detail to the prestige of her streaming platform.

Should Win: Tracee Ellis Ross, who’s been the best thing on black-ish for years and who endured a brutally depressing divorce arc in order to give Emmy voters the dramatic material they crave in their comedy performers.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Louie Anderson, Baskets
Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Henry Winkler, Barry

Will Win: Are Emmy voters as sick of Alec Baldwin’s Donald Trump impersonation as the rest of us are? That’s the question as we ponder who’s winning this. Also worth pondering: the three Emmys that Tony Shalhoub won for Monk. They really like him.

Should Win: In the category of Overdue Black Actors of Size, truly we are spoiled for choice. We waited all this time for Kenan Thompson to finally get a nomination for Saturday Night Live, and as much as I desperately want him to win and then interrupt his own speech by breaking into “What Up with That?,” I truly cannot allow Tituss Burgess to remain Emmy-less.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Zazie Beetz, Atlanta
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live
Betty Gilpin, GLOW
Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Laurie Metcalf, Roseanne
Megan Mullally, Will & Grace

Will Win: Easily the most stacked category on the ballot, with two-time defending champ Kate McKinnon essentially the main character in one of those video games where you fight new opponents and classic opponents? Like, it’s not enough that Betty Gilpin, Alex Borstein, and Zazie Beetz got nominated, but they also dipped into the past and brought back Laurie Metcalf (three Emmy wins) and Megan Mullally (two Emmy wins) just to shake it up. I’d say McKinnon is going to make it a three-peat on inertia alone, but Metcalf is such a wild-card. Between Lady Bird and two consecutive Tonys, she’s on the kind of career hot streak that awards voters love. The question is whether the Roseanne controversy means voters will stay away from the show in all forms or funnel their votes to Jackie as a means of crediting anyone other than Roseanne Barr for that show’s success. I say nobody wants to hear from anyone who even might thank Roseanne, so Kate McKinnon it is.

Should Win: Oh, torture me why don’t you. Can we split it three ways between Aidy Bryant, Zazie Beetz, and Betty Gilpin? No? Twist my arm, I say give it to Betty Gilpin, who took Debbie to new, complicated emotional places in season 2, while nailing her big comedic moments (that road trip with Bash!).

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
The Alienist
Genius: Picasso
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Godless
Patrick Melrose

Will Win: The Emmy voters have been known to get deeply weird, but this feels like it’s going to The Assassination of Gianni Versace almost by default, doesn’t it?

Should Win: Luckily, The Assassination of Gianni Versace is the best show in this category by a lot.

OUTSTANDING TV MOVIE
Fahrenheit 451
Flint
Paterno
The Tale
Black Mirror, “USS Callister”

Will Win: Not a great year for TV movies! My guess is it comes down to HBO movies Paterno and The Tale, with the better-reviewed The Tale winning while everyone at home wonders which movie this was.

Should Win: STOP WONDERING AND WATCH THE TALE!

OUSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Antonio Banderas, Genius
Darren Criss,The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Jeff Daniels, The Looming Tower
John Legend, Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert
Jesse Plemons, Black Mirror, “USS Callister”

Will Win: With Versace winning easily in Limited Series, you’d think Darren Criss would also be a shoo-in, but then you’d be underestimating the draw of the ‘Batch (who snagged an Emmy in 2014 for Sherlock) and of Jeff Daniels (who won an Emmy for The Newsroom; THE NEWSROOM!). Also? Don’t underestimate the chances of John Legend to snag the award for Best Only One of These Performances I Saw. If he does, that’ll be an EGOT! Still, I say Benedict Cumberbatch takes it.

Should Win: Darren Criss is so, so unsettling and great as Andrew Cunanan. He doesn’t need the award, with all his youth and handsomeness, but he deserves it.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Jessica Biel, The Sinner
Laura Dern, The Tale
Michelle Dockery, Godless
Edie Falco, Law & Order: The Menendez Murders
Regina King, Seven Seconds
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Cult

Will Win: Jessica Biel. No, I’m kidding, but can you imagine? Laura Dern won raves upon raves for her performance in The Tale, and she’s already an Emmy fave from last year’s Big Little Lies win. Still, she’s going up against a throng of Emmy faves in Falco, King, and Paulson. (And Biel!)

Should Win: It’s not like Laura Dern deserves fewer awards in her life.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Jeff Daniels, Godless
Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert
John Leguizamo, Waco
Ricky Martin, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Michael Stuhlbarg, The Looming Tower
Finn Witrock, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Will Win: If anyone from Versace is going to win this, it’ll be Ramirez, but I wonder if he’s not a big enough star in the States to grab enough votes. Maybe this is where all those Newsroom loyalists push Jeff Daniels across the finish line.

Should Win: Honestly, they didn’t nominate the one Versace cast member who truly deserves to win, which would be Cody Fern. Barring a write-in vote, I’m saying justice for Brandon Victor Dixon!

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Sara Bareilles, Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Judith Light, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Adina Porter, American Horror Story: Cult
Merritt Wever, Godless
Letitia Wright, Black Mirror, “Black Museum”

Will Win: If you’d asked me a year ago, I’d have told you to start etching Cruz’s name on the nameplate. She’s an Oscar winner for Pete’s sake! Now, though, after having watched the series and the conversation that emerged as it was airing, I’d say she’s in a dead heat with Judith Light. But while Light may be a Tonys magnet, let’s assume Penelope Cruz‘s star power is enough to pull her across the finish line for Versace‘s lone acting win.

Should Win: In a mere two episodes, Judith Light simply gives the better performance. There’s no getting around it.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK SERIES

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
The Late Late Show with James Corden
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Will Win: With minimal change from last year to this (Trevor Noah’s Daily Show returned to the category for the first time since Jon Stewart went away, replacing Real Time with Bill Maher), it’s hard to find many good reasons why Last Week Tonight won’t win for a third straight year.

Should Win: Kimmel and Colbert had some major highlights this year, but were inconsistent. Samantha Bee regressed a bit. Boring as it may sound, John Oliver likely deserves it.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH SERIES

At Home with Amy Sedaris
Drunk History
I Love You, America with Sarah Silverman
Portlandia
Saturday Night Live
Tracey Ullman’s Show

Will Win: SNL won last year while we were all caught up in Hurricane Trump. With a year to cool off, Emmy voters might be in the mood to move on … but to what? Sedaris, Silverman, and the sloshy geniuses on Drunk History would all make for exciting winners … but the Emmys are never exciting in these Variety categories. SNL repeats.

Should Win: Drunk History is the best show, but for sentimental reasons, they should let Portlandia win one.

OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION SERIES

The Amazing Race
American Ninja Warrior
Project Runway
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice

Will Win: This category has been around for 15 years, with only THREE shows ever winning. All three are still nominated this year — The Amazing Race, The Voice, and Top Chef — meaning you’d be a fool to bet on literally any other show. So why do I want to throw a quick hundo on American Ninja Warrior? No, I’ll be smart and say The Voice wins AGAIN.

Should Win: Even though season 10 had a much better first half than a second half, RuPaul’s Drag Race is still the only answer when it comes to what deserves to win an Emmy.