‘Chernobyl’ Is Proof You Should Never Count HBO Out

Ever since it was announced that their mega-popular drama would be coming to an end, one question has haunted television: What will HBO do without Game of Thrones? Just typing that question into Google produces a list of think-pieces from publications like The Wrap, The Los Angeles Times, and Vox; yet even before Thrones ended, HBO already had an answer to the question. It may not be a global phenomenon, but like so many HBO series before it, Chernobyl has grown into a much-discussed hit.

It feels patently bizarre that Chernobyl has grown to be as big as it has. Craig Mazin’s five-part miniseries isn’t a soapy murder mystery or a sexy thriller. It’s an intentionally drab and depressing take on one of the most horrific manmade disasters in modern history. The Chernobyl nuclear disaster resulted in 31 direct deaths and countless more from radiation poisoning. Chernobyl the series never looks away from that grim reality even though recreating it involves dying families, self-sacrificing miners, murdered dogs, and horrifically malfunctioning robots. Chernobyl is depressing and it never tries to sugar-coat its many horrors.

And yet this bleak, morbid series has unquestionably been a hit for the cable network, even outside the broody circles of critics. Last week several outlets caught onto the fact that Chernobyl is already the highest rated series in IMDB history. Since IMDB votes come from fan voting and Chernobyl still has one episode to go, that ranking should be taken with a grain of salt. However, at least 52,000 IMDB users took it upon themselves to rate the HBO miniseries extraordinarily high. It’s Rotten Tomatoes score, which currently sits at 96 percent, is nothing to laugh at either.

Ratings-wise Chernobyl has never approached Game of Thrones numbers, but it has gained an arguably larger-than-expected audience considering its subject matter. Sky Atlantic, HBO’s partner for the series, announced that Chernobyl was the network’s third best launch of all time, totaling an audience of 1.7 million. The miniseries has seen similar numbers stateside. Chernobyl‘s fourth episode secured an estimated 1.19 million viewers in live-day viewing, which doesn’t account for streaming views that may happen later in the week. It also has built its audience every week, growing from .756 million viewers for the initial episode, which is even more impressive.

But even with those numbers, Chernobyl has generated a notable amount of search traffic for the premium cable network. Since its premiere, search for “Chernobyl” has triumphed over Killing Eve and Veep, two larger cable shows that aired during this time. Its search traffic has also overshadowed Game of Thrones on at least one occasion:

For a super-sad historical drama that had the potential to slip under the radar? That’s pretty impressive. It also continues a trend of HBO relying on a cycle of mid-level, ambitious risks that often pay off.

HBO’s biggest and likely one of its most unexpected hits was 2016’s The Night Of starring Riz Ahmed. Though its premiere secured a comfortable audience of 2.1 million, according to Deadline that same premiere went on to end up with a total audience of roughly 8.2 million viewers. The building murder mystery produced a lot of hype for the network during a rather quiet summer season. That viewership excitement also translated into awards recognition. The miniseries was nominated for 13 Emmys, and ultimately won five of them.

That was followed in 2017 by one of the most surrealist series HBO has ever offered, the Sky Atlantic and Canal+ co-produced The Young Pope. Everything about The Young Pope screamed gamble. It was primarily in Italian, had an insane premise, and though it starred Jude Law and Diane Keaton, it was pointedly, intentionally bizarre from beginning to end. Additionally, The Young Pope always seemed like the kind of show HBO wanted to burn off, as evidenced by the network’s two episodes a week strategy. It was still a hit. HBO estimated that each episode of the series was watched by an average of 4.7 million viewers across all viewing options. That number wasn’t close to the audience Game of Thrones or even Westworld brought in, but it was similar to Veep’s audience. It even picked up a couple of Emmy nominations, and a devoted meme empire.

And before Chernobyl, there was Sharp Objects, a thrilling miniseries from Gillian Flynn that helmed HBO’s 2018 summer. Though each of its episodes averaged between a million and 1.5 million night of viewers, its finale saw a significant boost. According to Deadline, the Sharp Objects finale was seen by a series high audience of 2.6 million people. That put it within 6 percent of Big Little Lies‘ finale from the previous year, and we all know how much HBO loves Big Little Lies.

This isn’t to say that Chernobyl or any of these shows are a bigger hit than Game of Thrones. That’s obviously not the case; nothing is as big as Thrones. But while sites have been looking at the next great fantasy epic to pick up Thrones‘ crown, they’ve potentially been ignoring a much smarter strategy for multiple smaller hits that don’t just keep audiences engaged — they build over time, a rarity for modern TV.

Because of that, Chernobyl joins HBO’s growing history of mid-level shows that transform the premium cable network into a much-watch television destination. It’s also an excellent, well-watched miniseries that’s helping to keep those premium lights on. It would absolutely be great for HBO to find its next Game of Thrones or its next Sopranos in the next few months, and it looks like that’s what the network is trying to do. Both Watchmen and His Dark Materials look like the type of big ambitious projects that could become the must-see mega hits. But in the meantime, shows like Chernobyl, Sharp Objects, The Young Pope, and The Night Of prove it’s not the scope of these shows that keeps viewers tuning in and subscribers paying. It’s this network’s tried and true reputation for masterful storytelling.

The final episode of Chernobyl premieres on HBO Monday, June 3 at 9/8c. 

Watch Chernobyl on HBO Go and HBO NOW