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Apple has been trying to figure out TV for almost 30 years, and now they are finally getting somewhere.

The Macintosh TV debuted in 1993, had a 14-inch display, retailed for $2,099, and Apple discontinued it after selling only 10,000 units. Apple introduced the first Apple TV set-top box in 2007 for $299 that has evolved over the last 12 years into the $179 Apple TV 4K that has the best overall user experience of any streaming device available.

Consumers, though, opted for cheaper Roku, Amazon Fire TV and Google Chromecast sticks that were all priced at $30-$40, and Apple largely missed the rise of streaming. Apple’s market share of connected-TV devices in 2017 was 15 percent and falling, according to Parks Associates research report.

Apple reportedly had a prototype for its own smart TV in 2012 but stayed on the sidelines in a product market where prices were falling and margins were razor thin and focused instead on selling expensive, high-margin iPhones by the tens of millions of units. Apple shifted its TV aspirations to content in 2017, hiring Sony Pictures Television co-chiefs Jamie Erlicht and Zack Van Amburg to build a Hollywood studio.

Smart TVs Are the Cash Register for Streaming

Now, suddenly, the same streaming devices and smart TVs that Apple avoided because they were inexpensive, low-margin hardware are the onramps to an estimated $72.8 billion global market by 2023 for streaming services like Netflix, Hulu and Amazon’s Prime Video. Amazon and Roku have effectively positioned their smart TVs as easy gateways — and commission generators for Amazon and Roku — for HBO, Showtime, Acorn TV, etc., with a few clicks of the remote.

In March, Apple announced its Apple TV+ streaming service — “the new home for the world’s most creative storytellers featuring exclusive original shows, movies and documentaries, coming this fall,” as Apple described it — and channels similar to what Roku and Amazon have that Apple users can add directly to their Apple TV 4K or the TV app on their iOS devices.

The keynote event was so thin on details like launch date, pricing and series trailers — Oprah was there, but her show was not — that the company’s stock price dipped on lack of details. At last week’s Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple showed the trailer for its impressive-looking sci-fi alternate-history series For All Mankind but added nothing on when Apple TV+ would launch, the cost, or what shows would be available at launch.

Apple is a bit player in streaming devices, missed smart TVs completely, has been almost completely opaque about its streaming plans, and is preparing to enter a market where Netflix already has 150 million worldwide subscribers and Disney+ will have Pixar, Marvel and Star Wars.

This could go very, very badly for Apple, but I’m still bullish.

TV Requires Scale, and Apple Has It

Apple has 1.4 billion devices in use worldwide, CEO Tim Cook said during his January earnings call. The installed base of iPhones — 900 million of those devices — grew 9 percent over the last year. Apple Music has 50 million global subscribers and more U.S. subscribers than Spotify. Apple News has 85 million monthly users globally.

Actors Steve Carell, Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston speak during an event launching Apple tv+ at Apple headquarters on March 25, 2019, in Cupertino, California. (Photo by NOAH BERGER / AFP) (Photo credit should read NOAH BERGER/AFP/Getty Images) — Photo: Getty Images

When it’s time to let the world know that Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon and Steve Carrell are starring in a dramedy series called The Morning Show set behinds the scenes at a GMA-style talk show, Apple will be able to make the first episode — or, heck, all of the episodes available on the TV app that’s preinstalled on all 900 million of those iPhones.

Entertainment media has become a global enterprise with big, well-capitalized companies like AT&T, Amazon, Disney, Comcast and Netflix that have the ability to spend billions of dollars a year on programming for a flagship global streaming service with hundreds of millions of subscribers. Apple has the reach, the money, and the Hollywood clout to compete at that level.

Apple TV Launching on Smart TVs

While Apple is the dominant global player in smartphones, which is the fastest growing segment for distribution of premium video and will be a dominant outlet for AppleTV+, the app lacks a significant presence in the living room.

In January, Apple hard-pivoted to making its video service available on other devices with an announcement at CES 2019 that Apple TV would launch as an app on Samsung smart TVs, and Apple has said it plans to launch the TV app on Roku, Amazon Fire TV, and as a freestanding app for Macs.

The Samsung app launched in May, and the interface and user experience are nearly identical to the TV app on the Apple TV 4K. One key difference, which I suspect Samsung and Apple will address in a future update, is that movies and TV episodes in your Up Next row will only launch if you subscribe to the content within the TV app. On Apple TV 4K, the TV app will launch the app — Hulu, Netflix, HBO, etc. — where the content is located. Apple will almost certainly launch the Roku, Amazon Fire TV and Mac versions ahead of the Apple TV+ launch this fall.

Apple Could Conceivably Make TV+ Free

The big unknown is whether Apple TV+ will be a new $10-or-$12 a month entrant in the market for your monthly streaming dollars, part of a bundle that includes Apple Music and Apple News+, or an inexpensive — or free — noisemaker to bring consumers to the service to subscribe to HBO and Showtime.

I’m betting on the latter two options.

Apple is an ecosystem of devices, software, services and content, and Apple TV+ will be part of that ecosystem. Apple could conceivably bundle Apple TV+ at no additional cost for Apple Music and Apple News+ subscribers as an additional benefit to consumers who are already paying the company a monthly fee.

And, given the potential upside to Apple for 30% of every dollar that its users spend subscribing to HBO and other services, Apple TV+ could turn out to be a billion-dollar loss leader. Just as Apple’s TV app is currently featuring the entire first season of Big Little Lies for free in hopes that viewers will binge through it and sign up for HBO to watch Season 2, Apple could promote its high-profile originals as free exclusives to drive millions of new users to the platform.

Apple Can Afford to Experiment

Netflix is almost entirely dependent on monthly subscription revenue, and services like Hulu and CBS All Access are losing money in the short term in hopes of building bigger platforms for the future. Apple, though, can afford to treat Apple TV+ like a relatively inexpensive product trial.

The $2 billion that Apple is reportedly spending on original content would be the entire budget for a dozen startups combined, but for Apple it’s less than 1 percent of annual revenue. That $2 billion is going to buy nearly 30 projects from awards-y names like Steven Spielberg (Amazing Stories), Octavia Spencer (Are You Sleeping?), Sofia Coppola (On the Rocks) and Oprah Winfrey (two documentaries), but it’s a relatively small investment for Apple.

That gives Apple enormous flexibility to experiment with Apple TV+ — charge for it, bundle it, give it away for free — and try different combinations of genres, stars and formats to see what will drive consumers to Apple’s TV app and turn them into subscribers.

Apple can do all of this without the pressure of having to deliver immediate hits. For a company that’s been trying to perfect the TV for the last 30 years, Apple can afford a few more years to get it right.

Scott Porch writes about the streaming-media industry for Decider. You can follow him on Twitter @ScottPorch.