The Red Envelope: ‘The Irishman’ Is The Best Picture Front-Runner. It’s What It Is.

Welcome to the Red Envelope, a weekly series focused on Netflix’s forthcoming domination of the 92nd Academy Awards.

It’s hard to remember now, but Martin Scorsese was once a pariah to the Academy Awards. For 30 years, starting with his feature debut, 1972’s Boxcar Bertha, the world’s greatest living filmmaker (with all apologies to Steven Spielberg) received just five total nominations, including three for best director (for Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, and Goodfellas). He never won and save for some undeniable performances — like Robert De Niro in Raging Bull and Joe Pesci in Goodfellas — his films never did either. 

Seventeen years ago, Scorsese’s reputation as Oscar repellant started to change — and, as with so many things around awards season over the last three decades, it was unfortunately, in part, because of Harvey Weinstein. The disgraced producer’s former studio Miramax released Scorsese’s long-gestating Five Points epic, Gangs of New York, in December 2002 following months of costly post-production work and contentious battles between Weinstein and the director. Whatever happened behind-the-scenes, however, paid off with the Academy: As the Miramax machine had done with films such as The English Patient, Good Will Hunting, and Shakespeare in Love in the ‘90s, Gangs of New York connected with voters, scoring 10 total Oscar nominations, including best picture and Scorsese for best director. It was the most nods a Scorsese film ever received to that point. 

Of course, Gangs of New York failed to win a single award, but it didn’t really matter in the long run. Its awards success established Scorsese as a perennial Oscars contender: Since its release in 2002, Scorsese has directed seven feature films and gotten four best director nods for his efforts (a fifth, for The Irishman, is all but guaranteed come next year; we’ll get to that in a moment). During this stretch, he won his first Oscar, for The Departed. Beyond his individual plaudits, Scorsese’s films have also reliably found favor with the Academy: the four best director nominations coincided with four best picture nods (The Aviator, winner The Departed, Hugo, and The Wolf of Wall Street) and numerous wins, including two for his longtime collaborator and editor, Thelma Schoonmaker. But despite the track record of success, Scorsese’s biggest Oscars bounty is yet to come.

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Every week between now and when the Oscar nominations are announced, Decider will investigate a Netflix awards contender and definitively establish its awards bona fides. Who’s watching? The Red Envelope.

This week: Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, out on Netflix right now.

A BRIEF SYNOPSIS: Based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt, Scorsese’s 209-minute The Irishman tells the story of Frank Sheeran (De Niro), a union organizer and self-described mafia enforcer who claimed to have carried out numerous hits for mob boss Russell Bufalino (Pesci) and also took credit for killing Jimmy Hoffa (Al Pacino). (Sheeran’s account has been widely disputed but the film takes his stories at face value.) Originally set up at Paramount and then financed through a split partnership between Paramount and STX, The Irishman was eventually underwritten by Netflix. The studio reportedly spent near $150 million for the film, which uses digital effects to de-age its principal players so the stars can perform as their characters throughout the entirety of the decades-spanning production. 

HOW MANY OSCAR NOMINATIONS WILL THE IRISHMAN GET?

THE LOCKS: There’s no question The Irishman will land major Oscar nominations on Jan. 13, including best picture and best director. What is up for debate is just how many can it get. But let’s start at the top with Scorsese, the lockiest of locks. He’s guaranteed to receive a ninth best director nomination and has to be considered a big competitor for the win. All that’s stopping him are the other contenders: Quentin Tarantino, who has never won an Oscar for directing, and Bong Joon Ho, a visionary filmmaker behind Parasite who could become the greatest living director in a matter of years. 

Scorsese’s nomination will come alongside a small army of his collaborators. Write these down in ink: Schoonmaker, writer Steven Zaillian (an Oscar winner for Schindler’s List), cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto, production designer Bob Shaw, and costume designers Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson will all hear their names called on nomination morning. 

Then there are the actors: both Pesci and Pacino have been hailed as revelatory in The Irishman and each should easily slot into the best supporting actor field. Of the two, however, Pesci should start working in his speech now — and judging from the last time he took the stage to win an Oscar, it shouldn’t take too long. 

THE POSSIBILITIES: All told, the above tally gives The Irishman nine Oscar nods, which is the floor of its eventual total. Its best shot at a 10th nomination is for De Niro in the best actor category. Heading into December, he was considered a slam dunk for a nomination but De Niro has been dinged by the precursors: he missed key nominations from the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild. Is the performance too subtle? It’s possible. The first time I watched The Irishman, De Niro felt like the weakest link; by the time I finished my third viewing (humblebrag), he had me in tears. Niagara Falls, Frankie Angel. The nuance here runs deep but will Oscar voters give The Irishman multiple viewings to have De Niro’s impressive skill surface?

There’s one other actor who could surprise for The Irishman: Anna Paquin. An Oscar winner, Paquin casts a long shadow over the proceedings and her silence speaks volumes. It’s a performance most actors would only be so lucky to give: she almost steals the movie with seven measly words. So, is a nomination possible? The case for this kind of shocker: best supporting actress has only three perceived locks (Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers, Laura Dern for Marriage Story, and Margot Robbie for Bombshell) and if The Irishman is a true Oscars favorite, Paquin could rise with its tide. No tin foil hat is needed to imagine this kind of scenario either; just look back to this year’s Oscars ceremony, where Roma star Marina de Tavira scored a surprise best supporting actress nod as part of Roma‘s impressive haul.

Lastly, what of the film’s visual effects? While some of the de-aging work is dodgy upfront, the way Scorsese uses the technology is impressive, historic, and more relatable than a lot of louder effects spectacles. More important, a nomination in this category would put Scorsese in direct competition with Marvel, which will likely have at least one film in the mix. Who could resist a showdown like that?

FEARLESS FORECAST: 11 nominations (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects), three wins (Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor for Pesci, Best Visual Effects).

Christopher Rosen is a writer and editor who lives in Maplewood, New Jersey and still thinks Lady Bird should have won best picture. Follow him on Twitter: @chrisjrosen

Stream The Irishman on Netflix