The Red Envelope: How Many Oscar Nominations Will Netflix Actually Get?

Welcome to the Red Envelope, a weekly series focused on Netflix’s forthcoming domination of the 92nd Academy Awards. Read the previous entries on: Marriage Story, The Irishman, The Two Popes, and Dolemite Is My Name.
When did Netflix truly make the leap to become a major awards player? Try the morning of Jan. 22, 2019, when nominations for the 91st annual Academy Awards were announced and Roma tied with The Favourite for most overall nods with 10. But it wasn’t the coronation of Alfonso Cuaron’s drama that cemented Netflix, but rather the unexpected support for another auteur-driven film: Joel and Ethan Coen’s The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. The anthology movie, one of the Coens’ best (don’t @ me), landed three surprise nominations: best adapted screenplay, best costume design, and best original song. That the Netflix awards team was able to drum up strong Academy support for what had previously been an almost forgotten film is reason to remain bullish on the streamer’s overall chances in 2020, even after Sunday’s near-washout at the Golden Globes. (The Hollywood Foreign Press Association bestowed Netflix with just one movie award — Laura Dern in best supporting actress for Marriage Story — while instead opting to honor old-school theatrical studios like Warner Bros., Sony, and Universal with major honors.)
Since its start, this column has sought to definitively establish the awards bona fides for the main Netflix slate. To recap our fearless forecasts thus far:

• Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story: 7 nominations (Best Picture, Best Actor for Adam Driver, Best Actress for Scarlett Johansson, Best Supporting Actress for Laura Dern, Best Original Screenplay for Noah Baumbach, Best Score for Randy Newman, Best Editing for Jennifer Lame) and two wins (Dern, Baumbach for Best Original Screenplay).

• Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman: 11 nominations (Best Picture, Best Director for Martin Scorsese, Best Adapted Screenplay for Steven Zaillian, Best Actor for Robert De Niro, Best Supporting Actor for Joe Pesci, Best Supporting Actor for Al Pacino, Best Editing for Thelma Schoonmaker, Best Cinematography for Rodrigo Prieto, Best Production Design for Bob Shaw, Best Costume Design for Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson, Best Visual Effects), three wins (Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor for Pesci, Best Visual Effects).

• Fernando Meirelles’ The Two Popes: 5 nominations (Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay for Anthony McCarten, Best Actor for Jonathan Pryce, Best Production Design for Mark Tildesley, Best Editing for Fernando Stutz), zero wins.

• Craig Brewer’s Dolemite Is My Name: 3 nominations (Best Actor for Eddie Murphy, Best Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Best Costume Design for Ruth Carter), zero wins.

Those previous predictions give Netflix a total of 26 Oscar nominations — but let’s update the total here by adding a couple of more: Sir Anthony Hopkins in Best Supporting Actor for The Two Popes (owing to the fact that Tom Hanks’ film, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, has seemingly been lost to time) and Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski in Best Original Screenplay for Dolemite Is My Name (file this potential nod under the Ballad of Buster Scruggs Corollary of Netflix Is Good At This). That puts Netflix at 28 total nominations from its major contenders — a lofty best-case scenario that would mean every single thing broke right for the company. In reality? It would be a surprise if all four Netflix best actor contenders were nominated (De Niro seems most obviously vulnerable to a snub, but Murphy and Pryce could also wind up without a chair when the music stops), while Da’Vine Joy Randolph remains a Dolemite longshot (albeit one we’re definitely rooting for to happen).

SO… HOW MANY OSCAR NOMINATIONS WILL NETFLIX ACTUALLY GET?

Every week between now and when the Oscar nominations are announced on January 13, Decider will investigate a Netflix awards contender and fearlessly forecast its Academy Awards chances. Who’s watching? The Red Envelope.
This week: The rest of Netflix’s Oscar offering.
THE LOCKS AND POSSIBILITIES: Even if the documentary American Factory wasn’t produced by Higher Ground, a.k.a. the production company started by Barack and Michelle Obama, the film would easily land among the five nominees for documentary feature. But with the Obamas as wind behind its sails, American Factory feels like one of the strongest locks in the entire field.
A fun fact about Netflix is that the company won its first Oscar not for a flashy full-length feature but for a documentary short: 2016’s The White Helmets. The streamer has historically performed well in the category — five nominations across three ceremonies since 2017 — and it could easily land at least two of its shorts in contention for 2020 honors. According to the odds laid out by awards site Gold Derby, Fire in Paradise and After Maria stand as the strongest likely choices, but don’t sleep on Life Overtakes Me, a powerful Swedish-American doc about refugee children.
In the newly rechristened Best International Feature category, Netflix also has a strong contender focused on a refugee crisis: Mati Diop’s Atlantics, a supernatural love story that has been on awards voters’ radar since its splashy debut at Cannes last year.

If Netflix sweeps the above categories that would give the company an eye-popping 33 nominations, more than double its current all-time haul of 29. But why stop there? Netflix could procure another nod in the best documentary category (perhaps for the political doc Knock Down the House which prominently features Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) and also break into the Best Animated Feature race with either I Lost My Body or Klaus. Even if Driver is the only actor to land a nominee for Best Actor and Dolemite Is My Name is softer than anticipated, Netflix could still comfortably hit 30 nominations because of its depth of field.
But what happens next? Heading into the Golden Globes, it felt like Netflix was poised to ascend into the awards pantheon. Then it lost, frequently and loudly. The results won’t affect the Oscar nominations — Netflix will still clean house next week — but it positions the service in a potentially surprising an unexpected spot: as an Oscars underdog.
FEARLESS FORECAST: 30 total nods for Netflix, one popped bottle for Ted Sarandos.
Christopher Rosen is a writer and editor who lives in Maplewood, New Jersey and still thinks Lady Bird should have won best picture. Follow him on Twitter: @chrisjrosen