How Netflix Won the Fight for Emmy Nominations, And Why HBO And FX Lost

Another Emmys season, another year where Netflix came out on top of the nominations — which isn’t exactly a shocker. Ever since the streaming giant became serious about awards, it’s consistently ranked up an enormous amount of nominations. 2018 was the first time that Netflix actually broke HBO’s 17-year streak of having the most nominations, but this year Netflix has outdone itself: not only does the streaming service have the most Emmy nominations of 2020; its next competitor has 53 fewer chances to win.

Altogether, Netflix has scored a staggering 160 Emmy nominations. HBO, the longtime Emmy favorite, is next with 107 nominations. They are followed by NBC with 47 nominations and ABC with 36. And where does that leave FX, the cable network that long dueled against HBO in the battle for prestige television? This year the once-giant barely made the top five networks with only 33 nominations to its name.

We’re used to Netflix winning, but how exactly did it dominate the awards season this thoroughly? And what does this shocking flip mean for the future of HBO, FX, and awards-worthy television as a whole? We have some ideas.

How Did Netflix Win the Emmy Nomination Battle?

It all comes down to quality, of course; but perhaps more importantly, quantity. A lot of attention will be paid in the coming weeks to the truly staggering amount of Netflix content that’s been nominated this year. But to ignore the quality of many of Netflix’s originals based solely on their blanket approach would be a mistake.

One of the tell-tale signs of having a serious Emmy contending shows is having at least five nominations to its name. Eight of HBO’s acclaimed series — Watchmen, Succession, Westworld, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Insecure, Euphoria, Big Little Lies, and McMillion$ — fall into that category. Likewise, every network that appears in the top five, from NBC to FX, has a show of that caliber. Yet even considering these highly specific parameters Netflix scored the most five-nomination-or-more shows of any network. Ten of the streaming service’s nominated shows and specials — Ozark, The Crown, Hollywood, Stranger Things, Unorthodox, Queer Eye, Cheer, Dave Chappelle: Sticks and Stones, Tiger King, and The Politician — walked away with five or more nominations. Ozark, The Crown, and Hollywood even scored more than 10 nominations a piece.

All three of those shows are big-name, gorgeously produced affairs. It’s impossible to look at The Crown or Hollywood and claim that neither belong among the ranks of noteworthy television. Similarly, Ozark has long been able to stand toe-to-toe with the best of any crime drama.

Yet if you look at that list of 10 multi-nominated shows, you see the true secret to Netflix’s success. The reason this streaming giant is lapping the rest of television is because it’s made creating great, diversified television into an art. That above list contains five dramas, two documentaries, a reality show, a stand-up special, and a comedy. That’s a huge umbrella, especially considering how specialized cable programming used to be.

Of Netflix’s 160 nominations, only 90 awards nods are represented by those 10 shows. The remaining 70 nominations in Netflix’s cap come from a staggering 42 different shows. Some of those are ones you would expect, like The Kominsky Method and Dead to Me. Both gained the streaming service major awards including Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series for Dead to Me‘s Christina Applegate and Linda Cardellini as well as Outstanding Comedy Series, Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series, and Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series for The Kominsky Method, Michael Douglas, and Alan Arkin respectively.

Those other 40 nominated shows also contained some tried and true awards-worthy titles. Orange Is the New Black, Black Mirror, and Grace and Frankie all earned nominations. But then there were the more surprising picks: the viral reality show Love Is Blind, John Mulaney’s adorably quirky The Sack Lunch Bunch, the innovative Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. The Reverend, the horrifying docuseries Don’t F**k with Cats. All of these titles gained one or more nomination, quietly helping their network total tick up to that staggering 160 number.

It’s through these often overlooked categories that you can truly witness Netflix’s strength. When it comes to categories such as Outstanding Television Movie and Outstanding Variety Special, Netflix is responsible for creating four out of the five nominees. Its dominance is even more apparent when it comes to Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special. All five nominees were produced by Netflix in that category. For years now, Netflix has proven that there’s strength in numbers. But 2020 is the first year that its bet has paid off so clearly on the awards front.

How Did HBO Lose Its Hold on Emmy Nominations?

Well before we even knew when Emmy nominations were going to be announced (not a sure thing, given this year!), it was clear that HBO was in for a rough time. For years, the premium cable network had coasted on its hugely popular drama and comedy offerings: Game of Thrones and Veep. Those two titans were expected to bring home HBO’s big Emmy wins; any other nominations were just icing on the cake.

While HBO’s awards life without Game of Thrones and Veep wasn’t a complete disaster — whereas the premium cable network swept up 137 nominations last year, it scored 107 nominations for 2020, still enough to put it in the number two position — even that plus hundred nominations come with some serious asterisks, particularly when it comes to the future.

Watchmen, the highest nominated program of the year by far with 26 noms, is very likely going to remain a limited series. Though the door is possibly open for a Season 2, creator Damon Lindelof has expressed reservations. HBO’s next-highest nominated series, Succession, is set to continue, as are Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Insecure, Westworld, and Euphoria. But that’s not the case with either Big Little Lies or McMillion$. Then there’s the odd case of Westworld. Once thought of as a sort of Game of Thrones replacement, the sci-fi Western has never achieved the level of buzz HBO wanted since its first season. So of HBO’s eight highly nominated shows, three will not be returning and one has yet to pull in the number of nominations anyone behind the scenes at the Home Box Office might hope for.

There’s also COVID, and an acquisition to consider. Most networks don’t stockpile award-contending content to the degree that Netflix does, so it’s absolutely possible that if COVID-19 didn’t halt production HBO would have been able to release a few more awards-bait series, shows that may have then tipped the scale in their favor. And then there’s the blow of losing HBO’s longtime chief executive Richard Plepler shortly after AT&T’s acquisition. Anytime a network is acquired by another company or loses its leader there’s chaos. But losing both of those things at once? That’s absolute mayhem.

Though HBO doesn’t seem to be slowing down in the awards-bait department as they start to ramp up their number of releases under the direction of AT&T, none of the upcoming shows are sure things. There’s also the HBO Max of it all to consider, as the confusing launch of WarnerMedia’s streaming service creates series from a different part of the company than HBO. Will both HBO and the newer HBO Max start competing for awards campaign dollars in the future? HBO may be starting to copy Netflix’s strategy in terms of quantity (or at least, AT&T is), but will the quality keep up, long term? Ultimately, the network can continue to have a nice spread given its well regarded documentaries, comedy series and dramas. But this is a company very much in flux, and without a steady base level of nominations from its prestige shows, its entirely possible HBO might fall even further.

Or they could go ahead and greenlight Watchmen Season 2.

What Happened to FX?

When you look at the numbers, it doesn’t appear that FX is doing that much worse than it did last year. In 2019 the cable network scored 32 nominations compared to this year’s 33. But those two numbers are a far cry from the 50 nominations the network received in 2018 and the 55 it got the year before. And of this year’s 33 nominations, only seven of them are for major categories.

So what happened? The first and arguably biggest strike FX had going against it was its lack of returning content this year. Of the six FX programs that were nominated in 2020, only half were returning series: American Horror Story, What We Do in the Shadows, and Pose. Those latter two are only in their second season, by the way. First seasons can often break out during the Emmys, due to the excitement of something new… That’s what happened with FX’s own Atlanta and American Crime Story. But entering this year’s race without many of its staples, including Atlanta, American Crime Story, Fargo, and the now-cancelled The Americans and Baskets certainly didn’t help.

Then there’s COVID-19 to consider. More than Netflix and HBO, FX seems to run on a traditional network production schedule. Whereas it’s not uncommon for their to be multi-year gaps between HBO seasons, most of FX’s shows can be expected to return like clockwork. There’s always going to be a new season of American Horror Story in the fall and there will always be more It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia every year. That predictable schedule typically translates to tight production timelines. Much like with HBO it’s possible that FX was prepared to air a few more awards-contending shows in the spring. We know that was the case with Fargo Year 4, which would have assuredly been an Emmys contender. But with the pandemic halting Hollywood, FX’s tight schedule might have damaged it more than other networks.

Perhaps an even bigger blow was the loss of Ryan Murphy. In 2018, Netflix paid Murphy $300 million to exclusively create new content for them. This deal allows Murphy to keep working on his FX and Fox shows, but all of his new, typically buzz-worthy fare now goes to Netflix. You only have to look at Netflix’s 2020 Emmy nominations to see that this deal was a good move. Murphy’s Hollywood and The Politician scored the streaming service a total of 17 nominations. It’s unlikely that FX would have had the budget or on-air capacity to create both of those shows; that reasoning is partially why Murphy took the Netflix deal in the first place. Even so, it’s hard not to look at those nominations as “what ifs” for FX.

But the biggest strike against FX is undoubtably its Disney acquisition. Though FX head John Landgraf has always maintained that he was confident that FX had a place in Disney’s growing media empire, for almost a year after that acquisition it was unclear where that place was. That’s a bit different from HBO, which was always the star of the AT&T acquisition. This spring FX announced its partnership with FX on Hulu, broadening its streaming options. But that doesn’t change the fact for at least a year the network didn’t have a clear path with its parent company. March of 2019, when Disney acquired 21st Century Fox, may seem like a long time ago; but in the world of television that’s an entire cycle of taking pitches, reading scripts, and working on pilots. Losing any sort of momentum during that time is a blow most networks couldn’t recover from.

Given all this, it’s uncertain if FX will be able to regain its ground in the world of prestige television. If both Netflix and HBO are determined to ramp up their production, the network is facing two formidable foes. But the name of FX’s game has always been the opposite of Netflix: quality, more than quantity. Of the 15 Emmy-eligible series the network released this season, six were nominated for Emmys. Percentage-wise that’s an impressive spread.