Netflix is Poised to Dominate the Oscars Like Never Before

This year’s Oscar race is unlike any before thanks to Coronavirus closing theaters, stymying production schedules, and preventing the usual winter-long campaign circuit. But it’s also radically different because one studio is already squashing the competition in the Oscar odds race. Netflix seems poised to not only win big at the 2021 Oscars, but also suck up most of the nominations. While Searchlight’s Nomadland and Amazon’s One Night in Miami are poised to scoop up their fair share of nods, Netflix’s film slate is dominating every thing else.

Netflix movies like Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Da 5 Bloods, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are all heavy favorites to take home Oscar gold, and we’re not even talking about acting contenders like Pieces of a Woman’s Vanessa Kirby, Malcom & Marie‘s Zendaya, or even (post-critical bashing long shot) Hillbilly Elegy. The fact is the 2021 Oscars won’t just be defined by how COVID-19 has rocked the film industry, but by how Netflix has successfully invaded it.

Netflix first moved trepidatiously into the world of original films, putting most of its early efforts into documentaries. After the 2013 film, The Square, earned an Oscar nomination in 2014, it became obvious that the streaming service had dreams of elbowing into Hollywood’s most elite circle. Netflix’s very first original feature was Cary Joji Fukunaga’s spellbinding war film Beasts of No Nation. Netflix attempted an awards push for the movie, screening it at TIFF and giving it a limited theatrical release, but it would still be a few years before Netflix really became a legit Oscar contender. (Much to Fukunaga’s 2016 era chagrin.)

In the last two years, Netflix has seen its chances at Oscar gold spike like never before. Roma and The Irishman were both early frontrunners for Best Picture, and while they lost their top prizes, Netflix release Marriage Story secured a Best Supporting Actress win for Laura Dern. With every passing year, Netflix’s Oscar contenders get bigger and better, and the stigma surrounding the streaming service lessens.

Which brings us the 2021 Oscar race, one where the bulk of Best Picture contenders already look to be Netflix originals. As early as Summer 2020, Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods was earning buzz for Delroy Lindo’s incendiary portrayal of a self-destructive Vietnam vet, but that celebrated film now looks to be one of Netflix’s lesser offerings for the Academy. David Fincher’s Mank, Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom are all steady favorites for Best Picture nominations. And that’s not even looking at the wealth of acting slots the streamer is destined to snatch.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom‘s Chadwick Boseman, Mank‘s Gary Oldman, and Delroy Lindo are all heavily favored to earn Best Actor nominations. Netflix also has three big contenders for Best Actress with Ma Rainey‘s Black Bottom star Viola Davis, Pieces of a Woman‘s Vanessa Kirby, and The Life Ahead‘s Sophia Loren. The Supporting categories are also full of Netflix stars like The Trial of the Chicago 7‘s Mark Rylance, Sacha Baron Cohen and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mank‘s Charles Dance and Amanda Seyfried, and Hillbilly Elegy star Glenn Close and Kirby’s Pieces of a Woman co-star Ellen Burstyn.

So yeah, Netflix is going to have a huge Oscar year. That’s in part because the streaming service has aggressively acquired titles from film festivals and perfected their campaigning strategies. It’s also, uh, thanks to COVID-19.

Because COVID has upended the typical theatrical release schedule, Netflix remains one of the few studios largely unfazed by the closing of theaters. Since Netflix specifically makes films for streaming, they haven’t sat on releases in the hopes of recouping the film’s budget in theaters. That means while other major studios have pushed back tentpoles, big budget Oscar bait, or been denied the ability to reshoot smaller flicks, Netflix’s already aggressive film slate is…just what it was always going to be. Aggressive.

Perhaps the bigger question isn’t if Netflix will swallow up a bunch of Oscars this year, but what happens in the future? If theaters are officially dying and Netflix’s model is already set up to support straight-to-streaming releases, they’re in a key position to gobble up the competition for decades to come. If, however, theaters and studios bounce back, will Netflix go back to scraping for awards attention?

What the future beyond 2020 holds is anyone’s guess, but it does seem this will be a breakthrough year for Netflix’s Oscar hopes and signals that the streamer’s aggressive content strategy is finally paying off…in terms of Oscar gold…

The 2021 Oscar Nominations will be announced on March 15, 2021. The ceremony will take place Sunday, April 25, 2021.