What’s at Stake in Christmas’s Big Streaming Showdown

Christmas might be an internationally recognized holiday for most of us, but for the big streaming services, it’s a ground zero battleground for the future of their respective companies. The excellent, but struggling, HBO Max went to the proverbial mattresses and announced that Warners’s most hotly anticipated film, Wonder Woman 1984 would be available on the streaming service Christmas Day. Arguably the biggest straight-to-streaming release ever, Wonder Woman 1984 goes up against Disney+’s big winter release Soul and Netflix’s big push into the untapped romance fandom.

What’s at stake for all of these big streamers? For some, survival, and for others, the opportunity to further secure already massive success. On a Christmas where Americans nationwide will be more housebound than ever before, the major streaming services are grappling for viewers’ attention. Is Wonder Woman a big enough hero to save HBO Max from self-destruction? Can Soul fill the void left by Baby Yoda’s recent departure? And will Netflix be the first streamer to harness the power of one rabid fanbase that other streamers have all-but-ignored? And elsewhere, what are Amazon, Hulu, and other streamers doing on Christmas Day?

Here’s a quick look at the biggest battleground day in the Streaming Wars to date: December 25, 2020.

CAN NETFLIX RAISE AN ARMY OF ROMANCE FANS WITH BRIDGERTON?

The Streamer: Netflix
The BIG Release(s): Bridgerton (and Midnight Sky and We Can Be Heroes)
What’s At Stake: For the past few years, Netflix has bet big with a splashy action title at Christmas time. While Bright was hugely received, Bird Box became a bonafide hit. However the biggest Christmas tentpole to date has to be The Witcher. That wild and NSFW fantasy series is arguably the streaming service’s biggest hit since Stranger Things. With COVID-19 pushing back production on The Witcher Season 2, Netflix needed to find another show to fill its Christmas slot. Enter Bridgerton.

While Bridgerton does have, uh, duels, most of its action is reserved solely for the bedroom. Based on the best-selling romance novels by Julia Quinn, Bridgerton is a lush and sensual Regency fantasy about a wealthy (and good-looking) family navigating the scandalous social season of 1813. Soapy, swoon-y, and full of sex scenes, the show embraces the tropes of the romance genre. Though romance is arguably the single most lucrative literary genre out there, very few major romance titles have been adapted for film or TV. (And they’re usually in the realm of YA fantasy.) This means that Bridgerton‘s already ardent fanbase is an underserved market chomping at the bit for some dreamy romances to watch.

At least that’s what Netflix hopes.

Produced by Shondaland and featuring a huge, hot ensemble cast, Bridgerton should be set up for major success on Netflix. The only issue is that many households might not be turning to their Netflix homepage on Christmas Day as usual. No, they might be clicking on HBO Max…possibly for the very first time…

CAN WONDER WOMAN SAVE WARNERMEDIA’S HBO MAX?

The Streamer: HBO Max
The BIG Release(s): Wonder Woman 1984 (and The West Wing)
What’s At Stake: Hoo boy, a lot in this case.

Ask anyone about HBO Max, and they’ll have the same praise and the same major criticism. The good news? HBO Max has a banging library of content. All of HBO plus Looney Tunes, Criterion and Turner Classic Movies picks, Cartoon Network, Studio Ghibli, Warner Bros. and a slew of really fun originals like The Flight Attendant and Raised by Wolves. Priced for the same amount as HBO Now was, it should have been an instant favorite in households across the country. All told 28.7 million folks are technically subscribed as they are eligible to access the service, but Variety recently reported only 8.6 million of those customers “activated,” or logged into HBO Max.

Confused? Well, it could be that folks either don’t know they can access HBO Max with their existing HBO credentials — which is a brand identity issue — or they literally can’t login. Until literally last week, HBO Max was not available on Roku, one of the most popular streaming devices. After months of haggling and holding out, the companies came to an agreement just in time for the splashy premiere of Wonder Woman 1984.

With Warner Bros. bearing the financial brunt of COVID-19’s effect on the film industry, WarnerMedia needs to drive up activation numbers on HBO Max fast. Which is one reason why they’ve decided to stop delaying the theatrical release of Wonder Woman 1984 (and all subsequent 2021 films) in favor of limited theatrical release and a direct-to-HBO Max premiere strategy.

The hope is that by sacrificing expected box office profits, WarnerMedia can leverage interest in these films to drive up subscriptions and activations. It remains to be seen if Wonder Woman (and the Roku deal) will be enough to push HBO Max into the big leagues of streaming with Netflix and the uber-successful Disney+….

WILL SOUL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DISNEY+ ALIVE?

The Streamer: Disney+
The BIG Release(s): Soul
What’s At Stake: Arguably the least of the big three, but only because Disney+ isn’t betting everything on Christmas Day like HBO Max is. That’s because Disney+ doesn’t need to. On December 10’s earnings call, Disney chief Bob Chapek revealed that in just one year, Disney+ had hit 86.8 million subscribers. That’s not only way more than HBO Max, but Disney+ hit its four-year goal in just one.

Propelling Disney+ to this great success is a combination of robust bundle deals with Hulu and ESPN+, the pandemic trapping families at home, and — oh yeah — Baby Yoda. The Mandalorian, the first Star Wars original scripted TV series, has been a huge cultural hit in its two seasons on the air. And while COVID-19 delayed the rollout of Marvel’s original series and theatrical releases to 2021, Disney+ is banking on a year full of MCU content to continue the service’s growth. WandaVision, Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Loki, and Ms. Marvel are all set to drop between now and the return of The Mandalorian/The Book of Boba Fett.

So Disney+ has a plan to keep subscribers happy in 2021, but what about Christmas Day? Well, they are dropping the family friendly Pixar film, Soul. Intended to be a summer 2020 release, Soul is not the first Disney film that has been sent straight to Disney+, but it is perhaps the biggest title not to come with the “Premiere Access” pay-to-play window. Disney+ is still throwing down, but the difference is they don’t have to rollout Black Widow to stay in the game. They have a treasure trove of content, including this big Pixar flick. Before HBO Max made the Wonder Woman 1984 announcement, Soul was arguably the biggest, most high profile film to drop on a streaming service. (Sorry, Sylvie’s Love.)

WHAT ARE THE OTHER STREAMERS DOING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY?

The Streamers: Prime Video, Hulu, Starz, Showtime, Peacock, etc.
The BIG Release(s): Sylvie’s Love on Prime Video, Letterkenny on Hulu on December 26, and, not much that’s new on Starz or Showtime or Peacock
What’s at Stake: The strategy to not drop a “major” release on Christmas day for these streamers makes sense when you take them case-by-case.

Prime Video’s saving high-profile flicks like One Night in Miami and Coming 2 America for early January 2021, probably so their buzz doesn’t get drowned out by the likes of Soul and Wonder Woman 1984. Plus, they are sitting on a number of big shows expected to (probably? potentially?) rollout in 2021 like The Underground Railroad and Lord of the Rings. Plus, Amazon owns them so the parent company isn’t pinning all their fiscal hopes on the success of the streamer.

Hulu is now seen as more of an extension of Disney+ thanks to Disney’s choice to bundle them in subscription plans and COVID-19 has disrupted their originals pipeline (as it has for everyone). There’s no need for Disney to bank on Hulu when they have Disney+.

Besides that, no other streamer has the pressure on to immediately deliver and/or continue to dominate the way Netflix, HBO Max, and Disney+ do at the moment. Really the only streamer that absolutely must nail Christmas Day in terms of numbers is HBO Max. Here’s hoping Gal Gadot and her golden lasso can secure the bag for WarnerMedia…