Henry Cavill Leaving ‘The Witcher’ Is a Blow to Netflix During a Tumultuous Time

Right now, it’s a chaotic time to be a Witcher fan. Over the weekend, Henry Cavill announced that he would be stepping aside as Geralt of Rivia and passing the role to Liam Hemsworth. It’s an announcement that’s inspired everything from intense Reddit threads to boycotting threats. But this casting change doesn’t just mark a tumultuous time for this franchise… It continues a trend of uncertainty in the biggest streaming service in the game, Netflix.

The Witcher adaptation has always occupied a complicated place in the fandom. Any time a streaming service or studio announces that they will be adapting a video game into a live action project — even a video game that’s based on a series of books — there’s skepticism. Based on how these projects have played out in the past, it’s a valid feeling. But even the most intense gripes about The Witcher have been sheltered by one living shield: Henry Cavill.

From the very beginning, Cavill has made it clear that he is a fan of this series. And by that, we mean he’s not a casual fan. He’s someone who has read all the books, played Witcher 3 campaigns repeatedly, knows the lore, and can list Geralt’s many nicknames off of the top of his head. No matter how far The Witcher veered off course — and it has repeatedly and aggressively veered — Cavill’s intense devotion to this franchise and his loyalty to the source material served as a sort of security blanket. Sure, Lauren Schmidt Hissrich‘s show was taking some wild swings, from killing Eskel (Basil Eidenbenz), to Yennefer (Anya Chalotra) losing her magic. But Cavill was there, subconsciously assuring fans that this adaptation was going to be OK. This team knew what they were doing. Maybe it would take another season or two, but the story fans knew and loved would eventually be told.

Now that Cavill has announced his departure, that security blanket feels a lot thinner. It’s possible that Season 3 will be more of a return to the books than Season 2. But it seems more likely that Hissrich and her team will continue to take this adaptation in the entirely different direction they’ve paved so far, and that direction is rocky. There have been some highlights in the Witcher series such as Chalotra’s performance, and Joey Batey has been an absolute standout as Jaskier the bard. But there have also been nonsensical time jumps, political debates that are both under and over-explained, and random character deaths. Over its past two seasons, The Witcher has established itself as a promising show that is not greater than the sum of its parts. Cavill’s departure implies that fans’ loudest worries may be true: There isn’t really a grand plan for this series, and we’re going to be really going off book.

But fan expectations aside, Cavill’s departure is simply bad optics for this show. Cavill isn’t just the star of a hit Netflix show. He’s the only major name on this tentpole show that is centered around his character. The only other Witcher star who comes close to his level of fame is Kim Bodnia, who is best known for starring in Killing Eve. A cable hit, no matter how critically praised, is nothing compared to the man behind Superman. People have tuned into The Witcher specifically so that they can watch Henry Cavill smolder and kick monster butt. Liam Hemsworth, easily the second most recognizable Hemsworth brother, may be able to bring in viewers, but it’s not insane to think that The Witcher will lose a lot of its Cavill fans once it removes, well, Henry Cavill.

Then there’s The Witcher franchise to consider. We’re months away from Season 3, and The Witcher has already been renewed for a Season 4. Last year, the Netflix franchise released the anime movie The Witcher: Nightmare of the Wolf, and this December will mark the premiere of the prequel series The Witcher: Blood Origin. That’s without mentioning this franchise’s upcoming second animated feature or its family-friendly animated series. Netflix has put a Stranger Things-level of confidence into The Witcher and its related spinoffs. That level of trust is especially rare during a time when Netflix has been more than happy to axe cult hits like The Babysitter’s Club or kill recognizable projects like Cowboy Bebop and Resident Evil after their freshman seasons.

Despite this frankly surprising level of trust in The Witcher, Netflix has been unable to keep Henry Cavill, the man at the center of said franchise. For years, Netflix has dominated the television landscape by recruiting huge stars and green-lighting creators’ passion projects. Cavill is the latest proof that this tried-and-true strategy may not be working as well as it once did. In addition to the Cowboy Bebop and Resident Evil cancellations, this year Netflix has also canceled Steve Carell’s Space Force, Cooking with Paris, Archive 81, and Raising Dion, and it doesn’t look like it’s moving forward with The Chair, a show from Game of Thrones‘ showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss. Those are sorts of midrange shows with potential that Netflix-of-the-past would have likely given a couple more seasons. Then there are the stray creators who have left the streaming giant for various reasons. Kenya Barris, Avatar: The Last Airbender’s Michael Dante DiMartino and Bryan Konietzko, and Dear White People‘s Jaclyn Moore are all on that list.

This is not to imply that Netflix is bleeding content or creators. During its third quarter for this year, the company gained 2.4 million subscribers, reversing its slump. And it recently released Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, one of the most-watched series in its history. Netflix is doing fine. But there used to be a time in the not-too-distant past when the thought of a major Netflix star voluntarily leaving their show was unheard of. That’s no longer the case.

With this recasting, we will have to face an interesting question: Do people watch The Witcher because of Cavill’s star power, or simply because it’s a Netflix original? Netflix is clearly gambling on the answer to that question being the latter. Years ago, that would be a reasonable bet to make. There was an era where the phrase “Netflix original” was shorthand for a high-quality show or movie. That’s no longer the case, as Netflix routinely releases then cancels middling to bad shows before viewers ever knew they existed in the first place. Whatever power the Netflix Original used to hold, it’s depleting.

And Netflix has more competition now than ever. It’s not the only streamer with a major genre show. HBO has House of the Dragon, Amazon has Lord of the Rings, and Disney+ has two entire universes of big budget sci-fi shows. Even Paramount+ has Halo, for whatever that’s worth. The buzziest comedy on TV is on Apple, and the most discussed dramas largely reside on HBO.

This is not a good time for one of Netflix’s biggest and most recognizable shows to be going through a huge casting change. It’s far too early to call this being the end of The Witcher, as Season 3 hasn’t even debuted. But from a certain point of view, Netflix could as well have announced Hemsworth would be joining for the fourth and final season. Henry Cavill leaving may not exactly a death toll, but it also isn’t a vote of confidence.