Oscars Best Picture Predictions 2023: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

With the nominations for the 2023 Academy Awards in the rear-view mirror (it has been several hours, after all), we can finally get around to the big question of the year: who will win Oscars Best Picture, and who should win?

Granted, we have a nearly interminable month and a half to go until the Oscars air on March 12, 2023, which means at this early date it’s anyone’s race as The Narrative develops. Heck, maybe James Cameron pulls out a solid campaign for Avatar: The Way of Water, really tugging on the heartstrings by dressing as an adorable ragamuffin and singing “please let me win” in a twee British accent. Or we could discover that Tom Cruise isn’t just a adrenaline junky maniac, and Top Gun: Maverick pulls out in front like… Something fast, nothing is immediately coming to mind. I’m sure something will eventually.

Anyway, neither of those movies are going to win Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars, barring some sort of enormous upset (even though TG:M at the very least is an actually good movie). They’re only there to draw in the viewers to the live ceremony, which they won’t do because nobody watches awards shows live anymore. But I digress. The point is, of the nominees, there are only a few that are truly worthy of that golden statue. Aside from Avatar 2: More Avatar and Top Gun: The Third Act of Star Wars, the other possible winners are: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking.

Before we break down who will win and who should win, I want to emphasize again that as of this writing there are 47 days until the Oscars, and it is anyone’s game. These predictions are probably (definitely) wrong. But you wanted to know, so let’s get into it:

Oscars Best Picture Predictions 2023: Who Will Win

In a surprise upset, Morbius, the superhero movie starring Jared Leto, will win Best Picture despite being nominated for zero Oscars. Matt Smith will accept the award by doing shirtless push-ups on stage while the ghost of Jack Palance cheers him on.

…Or, more seriously, the early favorite is Everything Everywhere All at Once. Not only did the sci-fi pic get 11 nominations, more than anyone else, but it also wrapped up Best Picture wins at NBR, AFI MOVIES of the Year, Critics Choice, and tied at LAFCA.

The closest in terms of sheer Oscar nominations are Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front with nine each, and either could potentially pull out the win. Banshees won Best Picture (musical/comedy) at the Golden Globes, beating Everything and giving it an edge. Meanwhile, All Quiet has been, er, all quiet, though that sort of surprise sweep is the kind of thing Oscar loves. Plus, given the age of the voting body it’s plausible they might think they’ve renominated the original movie from 1930 and vote for that.

The big sticking point for Everything, though, is the weird divide the movie has between generations. Younger folks love it; older folks don’t get it. While Oscars have made significant strides in the past few years to diversify their voting body, it’s possible it may not be enough. In that case, to throw out a semi-wild prediction: The Fabelmans will win Best Picture. The Oscars might stop at giving Spielberg Best Director for the movie and call it a night, but The Fabelmans, a movie about making movies, is exactly the sort of thing Oscars loves. And with multiple wins including TIFF People’s Choice, AFI Movies of the Year and Golden Globes (Drama), it’s entirely conceivable Spielberg’s most personal film will nab the top prize.

Oscars Best Picture Predictions 2023: Who Should Win

Everything Everywhere All At Once. Despite a surprisingly strong crop of movies, Everything has the nominations, the critical mass behind it, and is the most wildly creative movie of the year. It breaks narrative convention at every turn, has something actually original to say about families and the human condition, and most importantly is the only Oscar nominee in history to have a butt plug as a major plot device, other than Green Book of course. Everything deserves, well, everything, including the Best Picture win at the Oscars.