We’ve Reached The ‘Survivor 44’ Finale: Who Is Most Likely to Win the Title of ‘Sole Survivor’?

With 12 episodes in the books and just one to go, the highly-anticipated three-hour Survivor 44 finale airs TONIGHT on CBS, and it is sure to be unforgettable.

After a season full of shocking blindsides, one-of-a-kind advantages and larger-than-life characters, this final episode may just be one of the most dramatic ones in Survivor history, with one Ratu member, one Soka member and three Tika members competing for $1 million and the title of “Sole Survivor.”

The final five castaways competing in the Survivor 44 finale are Carolyn Wiger, Carson Garrett, Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt, Lauren Harpe and Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho. The real question is this, though: Which of these stellar Survivor players is most likely to take home the victory?

We took a deep dive into each of the remaining contestants and their journey on Survivor 44 so far, highlighting any game-changing moves and mistakes from throughout the season. Afterwards, we ranked each castaway from who we think has the lowest chance of winning this season — sorry Lauren! — to the person we think will outwit, outplay, and outlast the rest.

1. Lauren Harpe

   While Lauren Harpe has played a much quieter game than the other four castaways, her experience throughout Survivor 44 has been anything but uneventful. Beginning her Survivor journey with an extra vote and managing to take home two immunity wins throughout the season, the elementary school teacher has been deemed as an under-the-radar threat, allowing her to outlast the rest of the Ratu tribe and land a spot in the final five.

   Given that Lauren has emerged as a strong physical competitor, the single mother has a high likelihood of winning the final immunity challenge, which may just land her a seat at the final tribal council. Unfortunately, after a few monumental voting mistakes, it is inferred that Lauren is the next easy target and will not get the opportunity to compete.

   Lauren and Jamie, her fellow Ratu member, missed an opportunity for a potentially game-winning move by voting against Heidi in the final seven vote, rather than taking out one of the members of the Tika alliance. Jamie was eliminated in the vote to follow, leaving Lauren truly isolated with no allies.

   If the Texas native manages to avoid elimination at the final five, it is likely that one of the other three castaways will want to take her to the very end, or she will take matters into her own hands and win the final immunity challenge herself.

   While Lauren is in good graces with nearly everyone on the jury, with Brandon, Kane and Jaime serving as some of her closest allies, it is still hard to envision her taking home the title of “Sole Survivor” as opposed to one of the strong Tika three. Playing a much quieter game, Lauren’s journey is very underwhelming in comparison to the flashy games of Carolyn, Carson and Yam Yam, and it will be hard to make her gameplay stand out while sitting next to even just one of these players.

   Regardless of where Lauren finishes within the final five, there is no doubt that she will go down in Survivor history as a well-rounded contestant who played with both poise and class, with a story from back home that is sure to melt everyone’s hearts.

3. Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt

   While the dominance of the Soka tribe gave Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt a relatively slow start to the season, the engineering manager came out with a bang once the merge hit, finding both an advantage and an idol early on.

   While Heidi began her time on the Va Va tribe as a huge threat, her power slowly began to dwindle after two costly mistakes in the final six vote. Heidi falsely played her idol, using it to secure her own safety despite receiving zero votes. She could have used it earlier on in the season to assert her dominance and pose her as a threat to her fellow castaways, or even used it on Jaime in the final six vote to cause Carolyn to be eliminated, ultimately breaking up the Tika Alliance. Unfortunately, how and when Heidi decided to use her idol undermined her gameplay as a whole.

   In addition to this, the 43-year-old decided to align with the Tika three in the final six vote, joining forces with them to vote out Jaime and ultimately leaving Lauren with no allies. Heidi could have made a potentially game-winning move by forcing a tie between Jamie and Carolyn and causing the other four castaways to draw rocks, ultimately creating a 50 percent chance of one of the Tika boys being eliminated.

   As a whole, Heidi fell into Carolyn, Carson and Yam Yam’s trap, placing her on the very bottom of the Tika alliance and serving as a pawn in their games. The Puerto Rico native had two opportunities to potentially split up the Tika alliance in the final six vote, however, she failed to capitalize on this opportunity. 

   Despite these costly mistakes, Heidi has a beautiful underdog story, serving as the last remaining Soka member who managed to make it to the final five, despite losing her closest allies along the way. Her badass energy and female dominance has not gone unnoticed throughout Survivor 44, and it was very refreshing to see throughout this season. 

   While seeing her win the title of “Sole Survivor” would be truly amazing to see, it will unfortunately be hard for Heidi to beat any of the strong Tika three, especially since she succumbed to their dominance in the tribal council prior.

4. Carolyn Wiger

   Carolyn Wiger will undoubtedly go down in Survivor history as one of the most one-of-a-kind players to date. While her unfiltered personality may be polarizing, the Minnesota native played a raw, authentic game throughout Survivor 44, all while solidifying her relationships with her Tika tribemates and making game-changing moves along the way. 

   One of Carolyn’s most notable moves this season was keeping her hidden immunity idol under wraps for the entirety of the game, then stunning everyone in the final seven vote by playing it to save Carson, one of her closest allies. Even though playing her idol did not have an impact on the result of the vote, this move caused all eyes to shift towards Carolyn, ultimately proving herself to be an unsuspecting threat. She even had Yam Yam, another one of her closest allies, debating whether or not to vote her out at the tribal council to follow, but he ultimately decided to remain loyal to the Tika three.

   While Survivor superfans may consider Carolyn to be too much of an emotional, unpredictable player to be crowned the winner of Survivor 44, all three remaining Tika members are in the running for the title of “Sole Survivor.” Despite criticism from Survivor fans everywhere, Carolyn has a strong chance at winning this season, with the ability to pull off a “Gabler-esque” victory.

   Last season, Gabler’s pitch at the final tribal council is what sealed his fate as the champion of Survivor 43. While he appeared to be a wacky, out-of-the-box character throughout the entirety of the season, the heart valve specialist said all of the right things to the jury during his final speech, showcasing several behind-the-scenes moves that made him stand out as the best player among the three finalists. 

   If Carolyn makes it to the final tribal council alongside even just one of her fellow Tika tribemates, it may be hard to convince the jury that she was a better player than those in her alliance, especially given how well-spoken both Carson and Yam Yam tend to be. If the drug counselor can convince the jury that her erratic gameplay was strictly strategic, and more impactful than the gameplay of her allies, she may prevail as the Survivor 44 champion in one of the most exciting victories of all time.

5. Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho

   Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho has used his charisma to capture the hearts of his fellow castaways and viewers at home throughout the entirety of this season, making for one of the best social games in the history of Survivor.

   Yam Yam is known for using his charm as an asset to his gameplay, being able to crack jokes at tribal council to distract his fellow castaways from impending blindsides and make sure the vote goes his way. The Puerto Rico native made it a priority to eliminate every contestant who had written his name down in the past, and with the help of his Tika tribemates, he has primarily been successful in achieving this goal.

   While nearly every tribal council has worked out in his favor so far, one of Yam Yam’s biggest mistakes of the season was voting out Jamie in the final six vote, rather than voting out Carolyn who proved herself to be a threat at the tribal council prior. Going into the finale with the Tika three intact is definitely a risky choice, given that Carolyn, Carson and Yam Yam all played similar games, however, there was a method to his madness.

   Yam Yam missed his opportunity to break up the Tika alliance going into the finale, which some Survivor fans view as a mistake, however, others see it differently. Deciding to keep one of his closest allies in the game is proof of the 36-year-old’s loyalty, staying true to his values and who he truly is as a person and a player.

   With such a brilliant social game, it is hard to imagine someone’s pitch at the final tribal council appealing to the jury more than his, however, there is just one player who may capture the hearts of the jury just a little bit more.

   Yam Yam’s primary competition is none other than Survivor 44’s other strong social player, Carson, who is extremely well-spoken as well. The salon owner’s words may be overshadowed by the bigger moves of his fellow Tika tribemate, with Carson potentially emphasizing to the jury that his strategic gameplay was more significant than Yam Yam’s.

   Regardless of whether or not Yam Yam wins the title of “Sole Survivor,” or even lands a seat at the final tribal council, he will always be remembered as one of the most high-energy, entertaining Survivor players to date.

6. Carson Garrett

   Carson Garrett is arguably one of the most well-rounded players in Survivor history, playing a phenomenal social and strategic game throughout the entirety of the season. With an immunity win under his belt, as well as strong relationships with nearly everyone on the jury, the 20-year-old boy genius is truly a force to be reckoned with going into the finale.

   Throughout Survivor 44, the NASA engineering student has dominated the game in the middle, with numerous game-changing moves that landed him into the position he is in today. His lies throughout the season were strictly strategic, advancing him in the game without burning bridges with his fellow castaways. Despite his under-the-radar deception, Carson serves as one of the most sensible castaways in Survivor 44, as well as the peacemaker within the iconic Tika three. 

   One of his most notable moves, and one that is often forgotten about, is Carson’s early decision to align with Carolyn and Yam Yam over Helen and Sarah. While he initially put on a facade that he had more trust in Carolyn and Yam Yam, both of their early edits showed that they were far more unpredictable than Helen and Sarah, making this hard to believe as a viewer.

   As we have seen in the past, emotional players are often easier to manipulate as the season progresses, which is likely the reason Carson made this decision early in the game. It is inferred that the Georgia native saw both Carolyn and Yam Yam as pawns in his game, and the fact that this trio is still intact in Survivor 44’s final episode proves that his plan was successful in the long run.

   Given that Carson is a stellar survivor player, his real challenge will be making it into the final three, which depends on both the final immunity challenge and the infamous final four fire-making challenge.

   Carson has been identified as a target the past two episodes, with Carolyn, his closest ally, even admitting that she does not want to sit next to him at the end. Without taking home a win in either the final immunity challenge or the final four fire-making challenge, it may be hard for the Survivor superfan to secure his seat at the final tribal council.

   Based on some mysterious editing throughout the season, Survivor fans speculate that the final four fire-making challenge will impact Carson’s game in one way or another. The amount of ominous shots of the campfire being reflected in Carson’s glasses seems almost too coincidental, and many believe that this is foreshadowing something monumental to come.

   Whether he wins or loses, it is inferred that Carson will be taking part in the final four fire-making challenge, either knocking him out of the running entirely OR adding yet another   spectacular feat to his Survivor resume. Being crowned the champion of the infamous final four fire-making challenge may be exactly what Carson needs to assert his dominance and take home the title of “Sole Survivor,” however, we will just have to wait and see…

The Survivor 44 finale will air on CBS at 8/7C on May 23, 2023.

Born and raised in Orange County, California, Melanie Rooten is a graduate of the University of Oklahoma. Melanie has a true passion for all things pop culture, and she tends to spend her free time going to concerts and music festivals, binging her favorite TV shows, spending time with her friends and family and cheering on the Oklahoma Sooners (of course). You can connect with her on Twitter (@MelanieRooten) to see all of her recent articles.

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