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Twisters on the Horizon: Is This Decade a Re-Make of 'That 70s Show'? July 19, 2024
If we're in a re-make of 'That 70s Show', the plot twists--and twisters heading our way--may be far wilder than we can currently imagine.
I've often written about the 1970s, as it is a profoundly misunderstood decade in so many ways. As one example, the enormous expense of retooling America's industrial base to clean up pollution and become more efficient that I described in The 1970s: From Rotting Carcasses Floating in the River to Kayak Races (January 22, 2023) added to the stagflationary dynamics of the decade (trillions invested with no immediate increase in productivity or profits) but eventually paid enormous dividends in the decades that followed. I often discuss cycles, and there are various theories about cycles. One is that all economic cycles share certain traits, for example, an unsustainable expansion of credit that leads to defaults and writedowns (the Kondratieff cycle, the business cycle), or an unsustainable expansion of the money supply. Another theory holds that we don't repeat the most recent downturn, we repeat the one before that. In this scenario, we'll experience not a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s but the Crash and Depression of the 1930s. If what we've entered is not just an economic cycle but an era of social-political tumult, then we have to be careful not to assume we can predict which features will echo past cycles. Perhaps we will experience the stagflation of the 1970s in this decade, as financial excesses are worked out and monumental investments to retool our industrial base and infrastructure place a drag on productivity and profits. There is substantial logic in that scenario. As the charts below illustrate, stagflation also crushed the stock market's speculative dynamic. In the financial realm, That 70s Show was characterized by a massive devaluation of the purchasing power of stocks as a result of elevated inflation and an equally massive decay in the speculative impulse to play the stock market, as the percentage of household assets in the stock market fell from 38% to 14%. But what we might experience in addition to stagflation is something few seem to recall about the 1970s: the extraordinary unpredictability of events and crises. Consider the situation in April 1973, at the start of President Nixon's second term. The Christmas Bombing of North Vietnam in December 1972 had brought all parties to the negotiating table again, and a deal bringing closure to the war in Vietnam had been signed. Inflation had flared up, a currency crisis loomed and Nixon had issued sweeping policy changes in August 1971, ending the convertibility of the US dollar to gold in international markets and imposing wage and price controls. The general outlook in early 1973 was positive, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) topped 1,000 again, reaching a new nominal high. If any seer predicted the Oil Embargo / Gas Crisis that pushed Americans into long lines around gas stations in October 1973, or the kidnaping of media heiress Patty Hearst in February 1974, or the Watergate cover-up leading to Nixon's resignation in August 1974, or the attempt on President Ford's life in September 1975, they are unknown to the world. If anyone predicted a decade of anti-Establishment domestic terrorism, their prediction is lost to history. The hundreds of bombings of Corporate America buildings, banks and other symbolic fortresses of the Establishment has been ably documented in the book Days of Rage: America's Radical Underground, the FBI, and the Forgotten Age of Revolutionary Violence. If anyone predicted that the US dollar would lose two-thirds of its purchasing power from 1966 to December 1981, their prediction is not well known. What $1 bought at the market peak in 1966 cost $3 by December 1981, in the throes of the deepest recession since the Great Depression, a recession triggered by soaring interest rates and monetary tightening to crush the wage-price-spiral inflation that had become embedded in the economy by 1980. Note that "Dow 1,000" in October 1982 was only "Dow 330" when adjusted for inflation since the peak in 1966-- $1 in February 1966 = $3.07 in October 1982. From the Dow's top in January 1973 at 1051.70 to the point when the Dow reached 1,012 in October 1982, $1 in January 1973 = $2.31 in October 1982. So "Dow 1,000" in January 1973 = "Dow 435" in October 1982. These data points are from the CPI Inflation Calculator (BLS.gov). 
Few predicted the demise of the belief that "stocks only go up" and the market was a money-making machine available to all gamblers, oops I mean "investors." 
If we propose that the 2020s will mirror the 1970s not in the precise dynamics but in the unpredictability of crises and reversals of all that is stable, known and reliable, then we cannot possibly predict what lies ahead. We can only anticipate twisters on the horizon that will be completely unexpected and potentially disruptive on a scale that stretches across culture, society, politics and the economy. If we're in a re-make of That 70s Show, the plot twists--and twisters heading our way--may be far wilder than we can currently imagine. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) 
De-risk your life, problem-solve, carve a path that works for you.
When Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote his famous essay Self-Reliance in 1841, the economy was localized and households supplied many of their own essentials. In our hyper-globalized economy, we re dependent on distant sources for our essentials. Emerson defined self-reliance as being our best selves thinking for ourselves rather than following the conventional path. Self-reliance in the 21st century means reducing our dependency on fragile supply chains and becoming producers as well as consumers. Self-reliance is often confused with self-sufficiency--the equivalent of Thoreau s a cabin on Walden Pond. But self-reliance in the 21st century isn t about piling up money or a cabin in the woods; it s about humanity's most successful innovation: cooperating with trustworthy others in productive networks. The book details the essential mindset of self-reliance and 18 nuts and bolts principles of self-reliance in the 21st century.
Podcast with Richard Bonugli: Self Reliance in the 21st Century (43 min)
When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal ( $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook) 
When I burned out, what I wanted but could not find was a practical guide by someone who had experienced burnout
themselves. None of the material I found spoke to what I was experiencing or to my sense that our
economy is now optimized to burn people out.
I decided to write the guide I wanted but could not find. This is my experience of burnout, reckoning and renewal. This book is my account of what helped me. The intended audience is other burnouts and those who want to better understand the experience of burnout. Burnout is a life-changing experience in a good way, as absurd as that may sound to those in the depths of burnout. To paraphrase Samuel Beckett: I can't go on but I must go on. There is a way forward. Read the first section for free (PDF). The Introduction
The Epidemic Nobody Talks About: Burnout
Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States ( $22.50 print, $9.95 Kindle ebook, audiobook) 
Nations that embrace Degrowth and social cohesion will survive. Those that cling to "waste is growth" economies
and destabilizing extremes of inequality will perish.
The threats to the republic are unprecedented, and conventional responses are an accelerant of collapse: the status quo is now the problem rather than the solution. We have an opportunity to redraw America s Grand Strategy from the ground up. Should we fail to do so, the United States will fail, along with all the other nation-states that are incapable of grasping degrowth and social unity as solutions. This revolutionary Grand Strategy will be the deciding factor between nation-states that fail and the few (if any) that will not just survive but actually thrive. Read Chapter One for free (PDF). Read the Introduction Podcast discussing the book: A Grand Strategy to Address the Global Crisis (54 min., with Richard Bonugli)
Recent entries: Twisters on the Horizon: Is This Decade a Re-Make of 'That 70s Show'? July 19, 2024 The Roots of American Populism: Are Trump and Vance Populists? July 16, 2024 I Fear for Our Nation July 14, 2024 How Will We Distribute the Pain Ahead? July 12, 2024 Here's Our Big Problem: The Ratchet Only Moves Us Closer to the Cliff July 10, 2024 No Reform or Leader Is Going to Save the Status Quo--We're On Our Own July 8, 2024 Living Well on Less Than $30,000 a Year--One American Family's Story July 5, 2024 Is It Possible to Live Well Earning $30,000 a Year in America? Yes--With These Conditions July 3, 2024 Move Over, Disaster Capitalism--Make Room for Addiction Capitalism July 1, 2024 10 Geopolitical / Financial Risks to the Global Economy June 27, 2024
"Why Are You So Negative?" Good Question. 4 Answers from Real Life
June 25, 2024
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Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms:
"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity." (Douglas MacArthur) "We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle) "Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson) "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.) "He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones) "When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac) "Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger) "Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam) "The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley) "A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS) "Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte) "The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu) "Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur) "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill) "Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi) "The realm of gratitude is boundless." (CHS, 11/25/15) "History doesn't have a reverse gear." (CHS, 12/22/15) Smith's Law of Conservation of Risk: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)(thanks to Lew G. for retitling the idea.) Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only. The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16) My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me) "We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16) "Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16) "Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16) "Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17) "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18) "Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas) "Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB) "When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19) "Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau) "Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19) "Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22) "Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22) "The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22) "There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22) "Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22) "When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22) "It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23) "Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24) "We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24) "It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W. |
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