Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in a bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India on Sept. 10, 2023.Sean Kilpatrick/The Associated Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
A mile wide and an inch deep is one way to describe Canada’s current foreign-policy strategy. Since 2015, Canada has been balancing a range of priorities and initiatives. It has been working to build trade relationships and deliver on security commitments while also advancing progressive politics around the world.
Our self-perceived position in the world is one of a middle power with a legacy shaped by the golden diplomatic age of the postwar period. Canada had been a significant military contributor to the Second World War, and under prime minister Lester B. Pearson, we were a country of peacekeepers and an active United Nations partner.
These days, however, Canadians don’t feel great about their place on the world stage: Only 3 per cent of Canadians believe our international reputation has improved in the past year, while only 10 per cent believe it has somewhat improved. This is the lowest positive score on record since Nanos started tracking this measure. (On the other hand, 39 per cent of Canadians say our international reputation has not improved.)
How would you rate Canada’s reputation
around the world over the past year?
Improved
Somewhat improved
Neutral
Somewhat not improved
Not improved
Unsure
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2007
‘09
‘11
‘13
‘15
‘17
‘19
‘21
‘23
How would you rate Canada’s reputation
around the world over the past year?
Improved
Somewhat improved
Neutral
Somewhat not improved
Not improved
Unsure
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2007
‘09
‘11
‘13
‘15
‘17
‘19
‘21
‘23
How would you rate Canada’s reputation around the world over the past year?
Improved
Somewhat improved
Neutral
Somewhat not improved
Not improved
Unsure
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2007
‘08
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
‘16
‘17
‘18
‘19
‘20
‘21
‘22
‘23
It hasn’t helped that Canada has had strained relations with China and awkward encounters with the Modi regime in India, while having to manage a relationship with the United States during a time when the Americans are much more focused on nativist domestic politics.
Since Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister in 2015, Canada’s foreign policy and international dealings have been mostly conducted through a progressive lens. See, for instance, Canada’s push to rebrand what eventually became the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or, when meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the G7 summit in 2023, Mr. Trudeau’s criticism of the state of LGBTQ+ rights in Italy. (One could only imagine how Canadians would have responded if another major Western democracy saw fit to lecture the Canadian Prime Minister on social issues.)
The impact of this approach on our international standing has been mixed. Efforts to get elected to the United Nations Security Council failed, while Canada was left out of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) trilateral security partnership.
Most Canadians would support a pivot toward a more strategic approach focused on deeper, stronger ties with key countries.
A new study that tracks opinion on foreign-policy issues shows that Canadians consider the U.S. (59 per cent) and Europe (30 per cent) as the top ranked regions for mutually beneficial relationships. Key factors driving perceptions of the U.S. were proximity (36 per cent) and trade (19 per cent). For Europe, positive impressions were a result of the view that it shared common values (29 per cent) and was trustworthy/stable (22 per cent).
Opinions of Canada’s partnerships
with other countries
BRITAIN
Positive
51%
Somewhat positive
32
Neutral
11
Somewhat negative
3
Negative
2
Unsure
2
GERMANY
Positive
41
35
Somewhat positive
17
Neutral
3
Somewhat negative
2
Negative
Unsure
2
U.S.
37
Positive
34
Somewhat positive
10
Neutral
14
Somewhat negative
4
Negative
1
Unsure
FRANCE
38
Positive
36
Somewhat positive
17
Neutral
4
Somewhat negative
3
Negative
2
Unsure
MEXICO
20
Positive
41
Somewhat positive
24
Neutral
9
Somewhat negative
3
Negative
2
Unsure
CHINA
3
Positive
7
Somewhat positive
15
Neutral
33
Somewhat negative
40
Negative
2
Unsure
Note: Numbers may not add to 100 because of rounding.
Opinions of Canada’s partnerships with other countries
BRITAIN
Positive
51%
Somewhat positive
32
Neutral
11
Somewhat negative
3
Negative
2
Unsure
2
GERMANY
Positive
41
Somewhat positive
35
17
Neutral
Somewhat negative
3
2
Negative
Unsure
2
U.S.
37
Positive
34
Somewhat positive
10
Neutral
14
Somewhat negative
4
Negative
1
Unsure
FRANCE
38
Positive
36
Somewhat positive
17
Neutral
4
Somewhat negative
3
Negative
2
Unsure
MEXICO
20
Positive
41
Somewhat positive
24
Neutral
9
Somewhat negative
3
Negative
2
Unsure
CHINA
3
Positive
7
Somewhat positive
15
Neutral
33
Somewhat negative
40
Negative
2
Unsure
Note: Numbers may not add to 100 because of rounding.
Opinions of Canada’s partnerships with other countries
Positive
Somewhat positive
Neutral
Somewhat negative
Negative
Unsure
Britain
51%
32
11
3
2
2
Germany
41
35
17
3
2
2
U.S.
37
34
10
14
4
1
France
38
36
17
4
3
2
Mexico
20
41
24
9
3
2
China
3
7
15
33
40
2
Note: Numbers may not add to 100 because of rounding.
More than eight in 10 Canadians hold a positive or somewhat positive view of Britain (83 per cent), followed by Germany (76 per cent), France (74 per cent) and the U.S. (71 per cent). At the bottom of the list came China, with only 10 per cent of Canadians holding a positive or somewhat positive view of the country.
When it comes to security issues between Canada and Europe, 83 per cent want strong co-operation. This parallels a survey for Bloomberg News Canada that suggests that, despite Canadians being worried about inflation, the economy and the rising cost of housing, about six in 10 people support strategies (ranging from cutting spending on social programs to raising taxes) to ensure Canada meets the terms of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) agreement that allies spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence. (Twenty-six per cent do not want defence spending to increase, while 13 per cent of respondents were unsure.)
The world is grappling with both security and trade disorder. On the one hand, conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and between Israel and Hamas are rewiring security partnerships. On the other hand, the economic cold war between the U.S. and China threatens all bystanders as they deal with the fallout of industrial and trade policies between the two biggest economies.
The reality is that all governments need political licence to move policy solutions forward. Back in 2015, with the election of a new Liberal government in times when the economy was stable and Canadians were more hopeful for the future, adding a progressive lens to our trade and foreign relationships made more sense.
In 2024, sentiment suggests that Canadians would welcome a pivot in our foreign-policy strategy: first, to focus on key allies such as the U.S., Britain and Europe; second, to renew our defence capability to build credibility within NATO; and finally, to focus on security and trade.
Instead of our foreign-policy strategy being a mile wide and an inch thick, Canadians believe we need to focus on friends and allies so as to build greater economic and security resilience.