![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1280,h_853,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9029785-f7b0-470c-a30b-e82365fb928d_1143x1600.png)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3b3378a-b47f-49ef-be05-3603badf291f_322x213.png)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76f952ae-b629-4540-8885-7ffafc1c0c57_335x263.png)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41a8e5cc-376e-49de-a0c8-8ee77e5a5498_251x255.png)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2f93d6b9-b7d6-4210-a640-cb59d055ab32_1123x747.jpeg)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40811de0-8dd4-41c4-b74a-14e5f9d6ae0c_1792x1024.webp)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09ef06d8-6f86-4afa-becc-deed2eee19b4_322x213.png)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_center/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6188aabd-1324-4268-988b-fb9e135311fa_251x255.png)
![Astral Codex Ten](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_88,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png)
Astral Codex Ten
P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.
Recommendations
View all 16Cremieux
Craig Willy
Nils Wendel, MD
Asterisk Magazine
Nate Silver
Share this publication
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_120,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F430241cb-ade5-4316-b1c9-6e3fe6e63e5e_256x256.png)
Astral Codex Ten
www.astralcodexten.com
© 2024 Scott Alexander
Substack is the home for great culture