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A legislative chamber filled with individuals engaged in discussion and activities at various desks. A large chandelier hangs from the ceiling.
Lawmakers on the Colorado House floor on Jan. 12, 2022 in Denver at the start of Colorado’s General Assembly’s 2022 session. (Olivia Sun, The Colorado Sun)
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Colorado Democrats are heading into the November election with the goal of maintaining their supermajority in the state House and achieving one in the state Senate. 

If Democrats have supermajorities in both chambers next year, they would be able to refer constitutional amendments to the ballot without Republican support and ask voters to make lasting changes to the tax system and around social issues. Supermajorities would also give Democrats in the legislature the ability to override vetoes by Gov. Jared Polis, who has been a persistent roadblock to progressive bills.

Reaching their goal may not be so easy. 

Democrats won a lot of legislative seats in 2022 they were expected to lose, namely in the House, and they’ll be defending them this year in a political environment that could favor Republicans. It’s a presidential election year, meaning turnout is expected to be higher among Republicans, and there are looming questions about President Joe Biden’s mental fitness. 

Biden beat Donald Trump in Colorado by 13 percentage points in 2020. A recent poll conducted just before Biden’s poor debate performance showed the candidates separated in Colorado by just 6 percentage points.

As a result, Democrats may actually be at risk of losing ground at the Capitol imperiling parts of their agenda even though they are expected to keep their majorities in the House and Senate. Progressive legislation like criminal justice reform and new gun regulations would be harder to pass if the Democratic edge in the House and Senate is slimmer.

“Democrats won a number of seats with very close margins in 2022 with a really strong statewide coordinated campaign and a very popular senator and governor leading the ticket,” Matt McGovern said. He led the House Majority Project, a group that works to elect Democrats to the state House, until August 2023 and now is a political consultant. 

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This year, McGovern said, there won’t be popular Colorado Democrats at the top of the ticket. And national Democrats aren’t expected to invest in Colorado to help Biden win like they are in other parts of the country.

“As Colorado gets fewer resources from national campaigns because we are solidly Democratic, it puts more of a burden on our legislative candidates,” he said.

But McGovern also says that while Democrats face a more challenging environment this year than they did two years ago, the party is much better at organizing than Republicans, who are mired in intense infighting.

(The Colorado Sun will write more about the candidates in these legislative districts, including their policy positions, as the Nov. 5 election nears. You can use this site to see which state House and Senate districts you live in.)

The House races to watch

Rep. Mary Young, center, was selected to replace Rep. Rochelle Galindo beginning this second regular session of the 72nd Colorado General Assembly as it convenes at the Colorado State Capitol on Jan. 8, 2020, in Denver. (Photo By Kathryn Scott)

Democrats have a 46-19 supermajority in the House. That means they can only afford to lose two seats to keep their two-thirds advantage in the chamber. 

There are six districts in which Democrats won by fewer than 1,500 votes in 2022. All but two of them lean in Republicans’ favor, meaning they will be difficult to keep control of in November.

Here are the House races to watch and who’s running in them:

  • House District 16: Democratic state Rep. Stephanie Vigil faces Republican Rebecca Keltie, a Navy veteran and self-described anti-establishment candidate, in this Colorado Springs district. Vigil won in 2022 by 710 votes, or 2 percentage points, in a district estimated to lean 3 percentage points in the GOP’s favor, according to a nonpartisan analysis of past election results conducted as part of Colorado’s 2021 redistricting process.
  • House District 19: Rep. Jennifer Parenti, D-Erie, will have a rematch with former state Rep. Dan Woog, a Republican. In 2022, Parenti beat Woog by 1,467 votes, or 3 percentage points, in a district estimated to lean 1.5 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
  • House District 25: Rep. Tammy Story, D-Evergreen, faces Republican George Mumma, a former police chief, in the west Jefferson County district. In 2022, Story won by 729 votes, or about 1 percentage point, in a district estimated to lean 2 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
  • House District 43: Rep. Bob Marshall, D-Highlands Ranch, is running against Republican activist Matt Burcham in the Douglas County district. Marshall won by 405 votes in 2022, or less than a percentage point, in a district estimated to lean 7 percentage points in the GOP’s favor. House District 43 was the most Republican-leaning seat won by Democrats in 2022. As a result, it’s a top target for the GOP this go-around.
  • House District 50: Rep. Mary Young, D-Greeley, will have a rematch with Republican Ryan Gonzalez, who works as a technician at J.M. Smucker. Young beat Gonzalez in 2022 by 330 votes, or 2 percentage points, in a district estimated to lean 6 percentage points in Democrats’ favor. The vote margin Young won by in 2022 was the smallest among all legislative races, leading Republicans to focus their efforts on ousting her in November.
  • House District 61: State Rep. Eliza Hamrick, D-Centennial, faces a yet-to-be-named Republican in the district that straddles Arapahoe and Douglas counties. The GOP nominee was disqualified and a vacancy committee must select his general election replacement. However, whoever gets the nod will be months behind in fundraising and campaigning. Hamrick won by about 1,200 votes, or nearly 3 percentage points, in the district, which is estimated to lean less than a percentage point in Democrats’ favor.

The Senate races to watch

State Rep. Marc Catlin, R-Montrose, listens during the legislative session Jan. 4, 2019. (Kathryn Scott, Special to The Colorado Sun)

Democrats hold a 23-12 majority in the Senate, one seat shy of a supermajority.

Democrats will be defending two competitive seats in November and trying to pick up three others. 

The districts with state Senate races this year will be up for grabs for the first time since their boundaries were redrawn in the 2021 redistricting process. 

Here are the state Senate races to watch and who’s running in them:

  • Senate District 5: State Rep. Marc Catlin, R-Montrose, is running against Democrat Cole Buerger, a small business owner who lives in Glenwood Springs, in this Western Slope district estimated to lean 3 percentage points in the GOP’s favor. The district is currently represented by Sen. Perry Will, a New Castle Republican appointed to the seat by a vacancy committee who is running for Garfield County commissioner instead of seeking another term.
  • Senate District 6: Sen. Cleave Simpson, R-Alamosa, is running for reelection against Democrat Vivian Smotherman, a Durango farmer and Navy veteran, in this district that spans the San Luis Valley into the Four Corners region. The district is estimated to lean 1 percentage point in Democrats’ favor. 
  • Senate District 12: Rep. Marc Snyder, D-Manitou Springs, is running against El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf in this El Paso County-centered district, which is estimated to lean 2 percentage points in Republicans’ favor. The district is currently represented by term-limited Republican Sen. Bob Gardner.
  • Senate District 13: Republican Scott Bright, who owns a chain of child care centers, is running against Brighton City Councilman Matt Johnston in this district that spans Adams and Weld counties. It is estimated to lean 4 percentage points in Republicans’ favor and is currently represented by Democratic Sen. Kevin Priola, who is term-limited. When Priola was elected to represent the district, he was registered as a Republican.
  • Senate District 16: Democratic Sen. Chris Kolker of Centennial is running for reelection against Centennial City Councilwoman Robyn Carnes, a Republican, in this south suburban district that is a true toss-up. Neither party has an advantage in the district, according to the nonpartisan analysis of past election results. 

Other legislative districts could be competitive in November

A woman in a dark blazer stands smiling beside an ornate, golden staircase and decorative pillar in an opulent setting.
State Rep. Meghan Lukens, a Democrat, grew up in Steamboat Springs. She won House District 26 in 2022 by about 3,000 votes, or about 7 percentage points. She’s defending the district, which is estimated to lean 3 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, against Republican Nathan Butler, a city councilman in Craig who attended the rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, that preceded the deadly riot at the Capitol. (Olivia Sun, The Colorado Sun via Report for America)

Republicans have their sights set on a handful of other legislative races they consider within their reach. 

While Democrats may hold the districts, any money they have to spend defending them would take away from their ability to win in more competitive parts of the state.

  • House District 18: Democrats are trying to hold this El Paso County seat, running software engineer and political activist Amy Paschal against Republican James Boelens, who started a construction company. The district is estimated to lean just 0.3 percentage points in Democrats’ favor. However Snyder, the Manitou Springs Democrat who represents the district now, won it in 2022 by more than 3,000 votes and roughly 9 percentage points. 
  • House District 26: Democratic Rep. Meghan Lukens of Steamboat Springs won House District 26 in 2022 by about 3,000 votes, or about 7 percentage points. She’s defending the district, which is estimated to lean 3 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, against Republican Nathan Butler, a city councilman in Craig who attended the rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, that preceded the deadly riot at the Capitol.
  • House District 28: Democratic Rep. Sheila Lieder of Littleton is running to defend her seat against Republican Peter Boddie, a hydrologist. Lieder won the district in 2022 by more than 2,000 votes, or roughly 5 percentage points. The district is estimated to lean 2 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
  • House District 38: This district is estimated to lean 3 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, but it’s currently represented by state Rep. David Ortiz, D-Littleton, who won in 2022 by more than 5,000 votes, or about 11 percentage points. Ortiz is retiring from the General Assembly. Running to replace him are Democrat Gretchen Rydin, a social worker, and Republican Jeffrey Patty, a lawyer.
  • House District 46: Rep. Tisha Mauro, D-Pueblo, is running for reelection to the seat she won in 2022 by about 3,000 votes, or about 8 percentage points. It’s estimated to lean 7 percentage points in Democrats’ favor. Her Republican opponent is Kimberly Swearingen, a civil engineer.
  • House District 59: Democrat Katie Stewart, who sits on the Durango 9-R Board of Education, is trying to hold this district for her party as she runs against Republican Clark Craig, the mayor of Ignacio. The district is estimated to lean 2 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, but it’s currently represented by Durango Democratic Rep. Barbara McLachlan, who won in 2022 by more than 6,000 votes, or nearly 14 percentage points. 

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Only one other state Senate district has a decent chance to be competitive in November. That’s District 19 in Jefferson County, where Rep. Lindsey Daugherty, D-Arvada, is running against Republican Sam Bandimere, the first cousin of the owner of Bandimere Speedway in Morrison.

The district is estimated to lean 9 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.

Corrections:

This story was updated at 9:51 a.m. on July 11, 2024, to correct the number of seats Democrats can lose in the House and still maintain their supermajority. It's two seats.

Type of Story: News

Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Jesse Paul is a Denver-based political reporter and editor at The Colorado Sun, covering the state legislature, Congress and local politics. He is the author of The Unaffiliated newsletter and also occasionally fills in on breaking news coverage. A...