A few things to keep in mind before we dive into the dubious act of predicting the whims of Emmy voters: This was not your typical awards season. Two days after the Emmy nominations were announced, the actors' union went on strike — and they didn't go back to work until early November, more than two months after Emmy voting closed. None of the stars got to do the typical For Your Consideration rounds, which should mean that voters made their picks based solely on the work. ("Should." Not "will.")
The other key point to remember is that Emmy voting closed about 173 years ago — more specifically, Aug. 28, 2023. Everything that happened at Sunday's Golden Globes? Irrelevant, as far as Emmy predictions go. Of course, even the most insightful predictions often prove to be irrelevant, because in the end, nobody knows what those kooky Emmy voters are thinking except the voters themselves. Nevertheless, we shall persist in making our picks in the nine main categories. (For thoughts on the Supporting races in Comedy, Drama, and Limited Series, check out EW's The Awardist podcast embedded below.)
Outstanding Drama Series
![Succession - Kieran Culkin, Alan Ruck, Sarah Snook, Jeremy Strong](https://ew.com/thmb/oUUQ_gG0o9YCefUTwUhvJ4nqIpk=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/kieran-culkin-alan-ruck-sarah-snook-jeremy-strong-succession-010924-2cb71a0a8e8842858cf205deb80f59c3.jpg)
Macall B. Polay/HBO
Andor
Better Call Saul
The Crown
House of the Dragon
The Last of Us
Succession (Should/will win)
The White Lotus
Yellowjackets
Let's ease into these predictions with the biggest forgone conclusion of the night: HBO's ridiculously satisfying family saga, which took home five Golden Globes on Jan. 7, will also win a lot of Emmys, including the top drama prize. Would it be nice to see Better Call Saul finally take home the gold after six unparalleled seasons? Sure — but we're holding out hope that Albuquerque's flashiest lawyer won't go home empty-handed...
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
![Kieran Culkin (Succession) and Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)](https://ew.com/thmb/YRkkAxwUNRG6gFMowP33tmgjiW8=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/kieran-culkin-succession-bob-odenkirk-better-call-saul-010924-50b94e3138ea47bab9a007a257a1efe2.jpg)
Macall B. Polay/HBO; Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television
Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession (Will win)
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (Should win)
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Call it delusion or magical thinking, but I choose to live in a reality where voters feel that Odenkirk — a man they've nominated every single season — deserves to take home the gold for his consistently stunning performance as Jimmy McGill/Saul Goodman. (Especially this season, which almost killed him, I might add.) It's not entirely impossible, as the Succession men might split the vote — but Culkin's shattering work during Logan's funeral will probably put him over the edge.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama
![Matthew Macfadyen, Sarah Snook - Succession](https://ew.com/thmb/STX6OQrje0U6rSrLHMU9nKL6EUQ=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/matthew-macfadyen-sarah-snook-succession-010924-f845858c065b4b528cb6c929f0aacfb2.jpg)
Claudette Barius/HBO
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession (Should/will win)
In Succession's final season, Snook earned her promotion to Lead Actress from Supporting as Shiv Roy navigated pregnancy, reeled from her father's sudden death, and pulled the ultimate power move on eldest boy Kendall (Jeremy Strong) in the series finale. To the other contenders, allow me to paraphrase Shiv herself: "I love you. Really, I love you, but I can't f---ing imagine anyone but Snook will win."
Outstanding Comedy Series
![Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary, Jeremy Allen White in the Bear](https://ew.com/thmb/7Z92GsKi6XPKM8xA6FCofI74CLA=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/quinta-brunson-abbott-elementary-jeremy-allen-white-the-bear-010924-58c74d77c0514695947b4d79b6e7762c.jpg)
ABC/Gilles Mingasson; Chuck Hodes/FX
Abbott Elementary (Should win)
Barry
The Bear (Will win)
Jury Duty
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
Wednesday
It's going to be a tight race between Abbott Elementary and The Bear — which dropped its stellar second season just two months before Emmy voting closed — but ongoing love for Quinta Brunson's breakout hit (and the fact that it should have won over Ted Lasso in 2022) could give it a boost. There is a chance, of course, that voters will give Lasso a knee-jerk threepeat despite its not-universally-beloved third season, but I choose to believe they can and will do better.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
![THE BEAR - Season 2, Episode 10, Jeremy Allen White as Carmen Carmy Berzatto](https://ew.com/thmb/JxbpauRhow_hUYJs4lOjyYQFJYY=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/the-bear-jeremy-allen-white-010924-fbecd5d63e2143758580a27bef7a6d7d.jpg)
Chuck Hodes/FX
Bill Hader, Barry
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (Should/will win)
Carmy's season 2 freezer meltdown was likely fresh in voters' minds as they filled out their ballot, and Jeremy Allen White also received rapturous reviews for season 1. With Lasso's shine fading, The Bear's leading man is the one to beat.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
![ABBOTT ELEMENTARY - QUINTA BRUNSON](https://ew.com/thmb/7oEoxCaPJMTR1bAnxUc0UpHHx-c=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/abbot-elementary-qunita-brunson-010924-b7f3521fd635493b9f214f655a3f0fd5.jpg)
ABC/Gilles Mingasson
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (Should/will win)
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Abbott's season 2 finale aired way back in April of 2023, so it's easy to forget how many memorable Janine moments Brunson delivered last year. The egg drop fiasco! Getting a surprise visit from her difficult mom! And, of course, finally sharing a kiss with Gregory! Voters clearly love this cast (Abbott received five nominations in the acting categories), so Brunson seems set for another win following her Writing victory in 2022.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
![Beef. (L to R) Ali Wong as Amy, Steven Yeun as Danny in episode 106 of Beef.](https://ew.com/thmb/QG7k6-eIbfFkmXaVNj_CgfX1Fpo=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/Beef-040623-d912cbd439324f39944248de2963ec7f.jpg)
Beef (Should/will win)
Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Daisy Jones & the Six
Fleishman Is in Trouble
Obi-Wan Kenobi
Beef is exactly the type of series this category should be honoring: Thoughtful, completely original, with a point of view that brings something new — and in this case, underrepresented — to the TV landscape. After winning big at the Globes, producers will need to clear more space on their shelves come Jan. 15.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
![Beef. Steven Yeun as Danny in episode 101 of Beef.](https://ew.com/thmb/F2m3gxcTnJKWsH0fmZuUUEw-frM=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/steven-yeun-beef-010924-eb5187de12a143609672e0dc9605ceb3.jpg)
Andrew Cooper/Netflix
Taron Egerton, Blackbird
Kumail Nanjiani, Welcome to Chippendales
Evan Peters, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Daniel Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Michael Shannon, George & Tammy
Steven Yeun, Beef (Should/will win)
This is an interesting category, in that three contenders — Steven Yeun, Evan Peters, and Daniel Radcliffe — have a decent shot at winning. Voters awarded Weird the Emmy for Outstanding Television Movie at the Creative Arts Emmys, and plenty of pundits put Radcliffe in the lead here. But the voting body also liked Netflix's controversial Dahmer enough to give it 13 nominations, and with Beef likely to win in the Limited Series category, they may want to reward Peters here. With all of that said, I think it'll be a cake-and-eat-it-too situation: Yeun gets the gold here, voters get to feel good about honoring Radcliffe with the TV Movie Emmy, and Dahmer supporting actress Niecy Nash-Betts takes home the statuette in her category. Everyone's a winner!
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
![Ali Wong (Beef) and Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)](https://ew.com/thmb/rVgxHt3xSj5HS1XimR8KdyZ8Dxk=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/ali-wong-beef-jessica-chastain-george-tammy010923-8b2540e753a846519f3a77db514eb425.jpg)
Andrew Cooper/Netflix; Dana Hawley/Courtesy of SHOWTIME
Lizzy Caplan, Fleishman Is in Trouble
Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy (Will win)
Dominique Fishback, Swarm
Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six
Kathryn Hahn, Tiny Beautiful Things
Ali Wong, Beef (Should win)
Back in August, many quote-unquote experts (myself included) put Chastain at the top of the list in this race, and she's still the only one who could prevent Beef from sweeping the main three categories for Limited Series/Anthology. The Emmys have always loved movie stars (especially movie stars playing real people in prestige dramas), and they probably won't be able to resist inviting an Oscar winner to the stage.
The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards air live on Monday, Jan. 15 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on Fox.
Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best in TV.
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