Here's who'll win the Emmys in the variety/musical and best TV-movie categories

Image Credit: Martin Crook/Comedy Central/Frank Ockenfels 3/Comedy Central/Mitchell Haaseth/NBCThis week, we’re considering two categories; unlike previous weeks, I’m asserting who I hope will win, since who will win may very well be different.

In the Outstanding Musical, Variety, or Comedy series category, we have:

• The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

• The Colbert Report

• Saturday Night Live

• The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien

• Real Time with Bill Maher

Who I Hope Will Win Jon Stewart plowed new ground this season, which is to say, he built up rage against so many worthy targets, and found fresh ways of expressing that anger through humor, that his show achieved a whole new level of comic effectiveness. He deserves the win.

Who May Win My colleague Lynette Rice has laid out an excellent argument for why Conan O’Brien’s Tonight Show may take an Emmy. Never underestimate Emmy voters’ desire to catch a wave of public sympathy for a man who was wronged. On the other hand, in an industry town like Los Angeles, a lot of voters look upon Conan as a business loser, and that may work against him.

Shoulda been contenders Where the hell is the nomination for The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson? And The Late Show with David Letterman?

The nominees for Outstanding Made for Television Movie are:

• You Don’t Know Jack

• Georgia O’Keefe

• Temple Grandin

• The Special Relationship

• Endgame

• Moonshot

Who should win Temple Grandin. Away and by far the best tv-movie, Temple Grandin featured a superlative performance by Claire Danes in the title role of the real-life woman with autism who became a significant inventor, and the film itself avoided any easy sentimentality and biopic cliches.

Who may win You Don’t Know Jack Never underestimate Emmy voters as suckers for a movie star: Al Pacino as Dr. Jack Kevorkian gave a fine performance; it’s just that Temple Grandin was a better production overall.

Shoulda been contenders The TV-movie genre is in such poor health, there should actually have been fewer nominees in this category; the excellence just isn’t there these days.

So what do you think of my picks? Do you think Stewart can win over Conan? Do you think someone else should win?

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