And then there were eight.
An exhilarating Euro 2024 has already produced so many instant classic moments. It really might be one of the best iterations of the tournament that we’ve ever seen. The Round of 16 alone was a powder keg of drama.
From Cristiano Ronaldo’s emotional redemption against Slovenia to a Turkish hero standing on his head to make one of the greatest saves in history, we’re seeing some extremely high-level soccer across the pond. And I, for one, hope it continues in a quarterfinals slate that looks positively stacked with quality from top to bottom.
This is where I pat myself on the back. If you’ve been diligently following this space, you will now note that I went 6-of-8 in my Round of 16 predictions. I even picked Portugal to win over Slovenia on penalties. (You will pay Romania and Austria! I assure you.)
Suffice it to say, this soccer betting writer knows his ball.
Here’s what I’m forecasting for each game of the Euro 2024 quarterfinals, including the current Final odds and what oddsmakers think of every matchup, courtesy of BetMGM.
Current Final odds smile upon the English
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Despite glaring struggles so far, BetMGM oddsmakers still expect England to make it to the Euro 2024 Final. That’s probably because the English are positioned on the “easier” side of the bracket. To the shock of no one, Spain is the favorite to reach the Final from the other side. Doubt Lamine Yamal at your own risk.
What a glorious potential Final that would be.
OK, let’s get to the latest games.
Friday, July 5: Germany vs. Spain
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Here, we have an epic matchup featuring the two best and deepest teams in the tournament in the quarterfinals. A matchup that unfortunately won’t happen in the Final but very well may likely decide the overall champion. Who’s got it better than us?
(Clears throat) No one!
I think this is the ultimate toss-up. On the one hand, Germany is the host nation, and the home-field advantage in this kind of international tournament is massive. I also love Jamal Musiala and Toni Kroos together, who might comprise the best midfield duo in these Euros. Usually, the team with the stronger, more experienced midfield wins.
Still, it’s so hard to overlook Spain’s top-end talent and depth. Whatever questions there were about 16-year-old phenom Lamine Yamal, they no longer exist. This impeccably poised young man is already giving off future “Best In The World” vibes. Fellow youngster Nico Williams has been a revelation, and the savvy Rodri might be the finest player alive right now.
The Germans are a machine. But so are the Spanish. It feels like they have a gear no one else can reach. Either way, we’re in for quite a treat.
Prediction: Spain 2, Germany 1
Friday, July 5: France vs. Portugal
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Friday’s Euros doubleheader closes with a (slight) battle of the Iberian Peninsula.
In one corner, you have Kylian Mbappe and superpower France, who has played in each of the last two World Cup Finals but has advanced past the Euro quarterfinals just once this century. On the other, you have Portugal, the team that coincidentally beat France in the 2016 Euro Final as it seeks out one last international title for the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo.
While both talented teams have been kinda disappointing so far, there’s no denying this game is flat-out dripping with intrigue.
The French may have entered this tournament as a favorite, but their lack of consistent offense scares me. Through four games, France has scored just three goals, two of which were deflections off the opposition. Mbappe and Co. haven’t had trouble generating opportunities, but seemingly no one can actually finish. The worst part is that France has yet to play an imposing backline.
On the flip side, Portugal has one of the deeper rosters at these Euros, but it’s been sleepwalking lately. Georgia’s group stage upset was a harbinger of things to come, at least in an anticlimactic penalty-kicks win over Slovenia in the Round of 16. Ronaldo’s mindset should be the most disconcerting situation for Portugal. Even while he’s still a good player, it felt like Ronaldo was forcing the issue far too much against Slovenia rather than letting his teammates make more plays.
At this point, I don’t trust either the French or Portuguese to live up to their respective high expectations. However, I have more faith in the French, who are still a better team on paper.
Prediction: France 1, Portugal 0
Saturday, July 6: Switzerland vs. England
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Another tournament favorite, England, has sputtered while trying to avenge its loss in the 2020 Euro Final. If not for miraculous heroics from Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane, this uninspiring iteration of the Three Lions would’ve been eliminated by Slovakia in one of the biggest upsets in international soccer history. I don’t know what’s wrong with a team with a constellation of stars, but it seems to be missing that extra special flare necessary to win it all.
Gareth Southgate, once again, please get it together.
Unfortunately for the English, their quarterfinals opponent, Switzerland, is the furthest thing from a “cupcake.”
The battle-tested Swiss took Italy apart without mercy in the Round of 16. This is a generation of Swiss soccer that has now firmly established itself as a European power with a Round of 16 appearance in 2016 and two consecutive quarterfinals berths in 2020 and now 2024. Captain Granit Xhaka is one of the more underrated midfielders in the world, while every member of the Swiss starting 11 plays in one of Europe’s big five leagues.
Most importantly, Switzerland plays together in perfect harmony and unison, unlike its quarterfinals opponent. It has “the look.” With all due respect to the English, I think the Swiss have the goods to win their first-ever European championship.
I won’t bet against them now, even if it won’t come easily.
Prediction: Switzerland 1, England 1 (Switzerland 5-4 on penalties)
Saturday, July 6: Netherlands vs. Turkey
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It wouldn’t be a proper European championship without a perennial disappointment having to ward off a Cinderella.
The Netherlands is arguably the most famous international soccer power that consistently falls short of expectations. The only championship the Dutchmen have ever won was a 1988 European title. The 2024 iteration is a solid group overall, led by center-back Virgil van Dijk. Still, outside of Cody Gakpo, it mostly lacks the expected firepower you’d hope for from a heavyweight.
Turkey, meanwhile, really shouldn’t be here. I don’t mean that in the sense that the Turkish don’t deserve this unexpected European success. They do, and we love to see it. I literally mean that if not for the fingertips of Mert Günok, Turkey would probably not have been playing in these quarterfinals.
What a remarkable story.
As vulnerable as the Netherlands seems, the slipper eventually stops fitting for most Cinderellas. Turkey will have to score early to put pressure on the Dutch and then turtle to even have a chance against a vastly superior side. I’m having trouble imagining the Oranje sitting much on their end of the field.
Maybe the unthinkable happens. Greece in 2000 and Portugal in 2016 similarly faced long odds before winning their titles.
But I’m certainly not going to bet on it.
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Turkey 1
