The only film on this list that feels like a safe bet for a Best Picture nomination is Dune: Part Two. Not only did it get better reviews than its predecessor, it’s one of the year’s defining blockbusters that could lead the entire field in nominations if it can get into at least one acting category. Denis Villeneuve should be a serious contender for Best Director, and Timothée Chalamet’s commanding portrayal of Paul Atreides could land him his second Oscar nomination for Best Actor. The film landing numerous accolades below the line feels like a given.

Possible nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Chalamet), Best Actress (Zendaya), Best Supporting Actor (Javier Bardem), Best Supporting Actress (Rebecca Ferguson), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Sound, Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Visual Effects

A24’s biggest-ever box office hit may well be an outside contender for Best Picture, as it’s got the divisive edge to curry plenty of love with those most passionate about it. Alex Garland makes polarizing films, and that can occasionally help with a preferential balloting system. While this film’s best odds will probably go in the crafts, we’ll consider it as a sleeper candidate for bigger fish. A lack of recognition in Best Sound would be a huge shame.

Possible nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Sound, Best Film Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Luca Guadagnino’s thrilling sports romance did well enough at the box office to match its grand slam with critics. Boasting an irresistible trio of Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O’Connor and some of the most inspired filmmaking of the year, Challengers is one of our real Oscar contenders to come out of the first half of 2024. The film feels like a true wild card right now, as we could see it registering all over the board or missing out completely. Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle if Amazon/MGM can position it well with voters in the second half of the year. It does feel like Zendaya’s best chance at a Best Actress nomination this year over Dune: Part Two, at least.

Possible nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Zendaya), Best Supporting Actor (Josh O’Connor), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound

Due to its tough sledding at the box office and it having to stand against the unreal achievement of Mad Max: Fury Road, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga may just be a below-the-line player for Warner Bros. There’s no shame in that since the film is spectacular, but we doubt it reaches the Oscar heights of its classic 2015 predecessor. However, it’ll definitely register with the crafts.

Possible nominations: Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score

The first film since Barbie to cross a billion dollars at the global box office is Inside Out 2, the rousing Pixar comeback that proved why animated movies absolutely belong in theaters. The film also got widely positive reviews for a sequel, and Pixar has landed a Best Picture nomination in the past with one of its corresponding installments (2010’s Toy Story 3, the last animated film to make it in Best Picture). Will Inside Out 2 join well-reviewed billion-dollar grossers like Barbie, Top Gun: Maverick and and Avatar: The Way of Water as earning a Best Picture nomination? The Pixar sheen will help it, but the Academy isn’t always keen on nominating animated films in the Best Picture field. Color us intrigued either way. A Best Animated Feature nomination is a lock, though.

Possible nominations: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Feature, Best Original Score

DreamWorks Animation will probably put all their weight behind The Wild Robot in Best Animated Feature, but February’s very solid Orion and the Dark could be a contender in a soft year, too.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes feels like a safe bet to contend in Best Visual Effects.

Jane Schoenbrun’s magnificent I Saw the TV Glow could be an outside contender in Best Original Screenplay, but we do wonder if A24 throws all its weight for the film behind a Best Original Song nomination for Caroline Polachek’s outstanding “Starburned and Unkissed.”

Richard Linklater’s Hit Man unfortunately feels like a longshot right now for any nominations, but maybe Netflix can squeeze it in for an Adapted Screenplay spot with a steady campaign.

Jeff Nichols’ fantastic The Bikeriders may not enter the Oscar fray, but we’re still going to keep our eye on Jodie Comer as a dark horse for Best Supporting Actress if this is a weak year.

Kinds of Kindness sounds like a return to form for Yorgos Lanthimos’ deliciously acidic, anti-comfort mode, which will probably limit its Oscar reach. Poor Things had a much more hopeful, awards-ready slant to its tone and message. However, Jesse Plemons scored a Best Actor win at Cannes for the anthology film, so we’ll keep an eye on him as an outside contender, too.

A Quiet Place: Day One could always figure into the Best Visual Effects and Best Sound race.

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 has earned some commendation for its cinematography from J. Michael Muro, so we’ll tab it as a possible contender in that category. However, a second chapter coming in August and tepid audience and box office response may limit its chances.

The brave I Am: Celine Dion might be the rare celebrity-based documentary to break through with a nomination in Best Documentary Feature with its unflinching approach to Dion’s health struggles.

If Japan submits Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist as its 2024 contender in Best International Feature, it’s got great odds to snag a nomination.

Best Picture

1. Anora (dir. Sean Baker)
2. Blitz (dir. Steve McQueen)
3. Conclave (dir. Edward Berger)
4. Dune: Part Two (dir. Denis Villeneuve)
5. Gladiator II (dir. Ridley Scott)
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (dir. Todd Phillips)
7. The Room Next Door (dir. Pedro Almodóvar)
8. The Piano Lesson (dir. Malcolm Washington)
9. Sing Sing (dir. Greg Kwedar)
10. Wicked: Part One (dir. Jon M. Chu)

Director

1. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)
3. Edward Berger (Conclave)
4. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Best Actor

1. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
3. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II)
4. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie à Deux)
5. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)

Best Actress

1. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: Part One)
2. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux)
3. Angelina Jolie (Maria)
4. Mikey Madison (Anora)
5. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
2. Mark Eidelstein (Anora)
3. John Lithgow (Conclave)
4. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
5. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked: Part One)
3. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters)
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
5. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)

Best Original Screenplay

1. A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
2. Anora (Sean Baker)
3. Blitz (Steve McQueen)
4. Challengers (Justin Kuritzkes)
5. The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Conclave (Peter Straughan)
2. Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts)
3. Inside Out 2 (Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein)
4. Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar)
5. Wicked: Part One (Winnie Holzman)