Majority of those polled view justices’ decisions as motivated mostly by politics, while opinion is divided on the Court’s honesty and ethics

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 43% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 57% disapprove. In May, approval was 39% and disapproval was 61%.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: U.S. Supreme Court approval

Among Adults

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	43	57
5/6-15/24	39	61
3/18-28/24	47	53
2/5-15/24	40	60
11/2-7/23	41	59
9/18-25/23	43	57
7/7-12/23	45	55
5/8-18/23	41	59
3/13-22/23	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
11/15-22/22	44	56
9/7-14/22	40	60
7/5-12/22	38	61
5/9-19/22	44	55
3/14-24/22	54	45
1/10-21/22	52	46
11/1-10/21	54	46
9/7-16/21	49	50
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/8-15/20	66	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024. The survey interviewed 1,005 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

Public opinion about recent decisions

 

The poll asked about seven recent decisions of the Supreme Court:

• Large majorities of the public favor the ruling that it does not violate the Second Amendment for the government to take guns away from people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from a court (U.S. v. Rahimi).

• Two-thirds favor the decision that maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, and rejected a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the pill (FDA v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine).

• A small majority favors the decision that upheld city ordinances that prohibit people who are homeless from sleeping and camping on public property, ruling that such ordinances do not constitute cruel and unusual punishment prohibited by the Constitution (City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson).

• A similar small majority of the public favors a decision that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause (Trump v. Anderson).

• A majority opposes the decision that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives exceeded its statutory authority when it prohibited bump stocks which enable semiautomatic rifles to fire at speeds rivaling those of machine guns (Garland v. Cargill).

• A majority also opposes the decision that while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president (Trump v. U.S.)

• Two different question wordings were asked on the Court’s decision that overturned the 1984 Chevron decision, which required courts to defer to executive agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes (the 2024 decision being Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo). A random half-sample was asked Version 1, and the other half-sample was asked Version 2. The majority reverses between the two wordings of the question, with a majority opposed to the ruling when the question simply says the ruling overturns deference to agencies, but a majority favoring the decision when the question adds that courts must exercise independent judgment on statutory interpretation.

When asking about Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, Version 1, which yielded majority opposition to the Court’s ruling was worded:

In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Version 2, which found majority support for the ruling, added further description of the ruling:

In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes, ruling instead that courts must exercise their independent judgment on all questions of statutory interpretation made by agencies administering statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Table 2 summarizes opinion about all seven decisions.

Table 2: Favor or oppose the Court’s decision

Among Adults

Case	Favor or oppose decision
	Favor	Oppose
Remove guns from those under restraining order	76	24
Maintain current access to abortion medication	67	33
Overturn deference to executive agencies, wording Version 2	57	43
Restrict homeless camping	55	45
States cannot remove Trump from ballots under 14th Amendment	54	46
Overturn deference to executive agencies, wording Version 1	44	56
Ban on bump stocks exceeded statutory authority	43	57
Presidents have immunity for official acts	41	59
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: (Description of the decision) Do you favor or oppose this decision?
Note: See complete question wording at end of the release.
Note: Decision on deference to executive agencies was asked, of different half-samples of respondents, with two wordings.

 

Previous decisions

Among major decisions from earlier terms, a solid majority of the public favors the 2015 decision that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage, with 68% approving of that ruling and 32% opposed (Obergefell v. Hodges).

A similarly large majority, 69%, favors the 2022 decision that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen). The decision is opposed by 31%.

The most controversial opinion of recent years overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states (Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in 2022). This decision is opposed by 67% and favored by 33%.

 

Basis of the justices’ decisions

In this latest survey, 57% say the justices’ decisions are motivated mainly by politics, while 43% say decisions are based mainly on the law. In September 2019, 35% said mainly politics and 64% said mainly the law. The percentage saying that politics is the main motivation of justices began increasing in January 2022 and has remained at or above 50% since July 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics

Among Adults

Poll dates	Perceived motivation
	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
7/24-8/1/24	57	43
5/6-15/24	56	44
3/18-28/24	50	50
2/5-15/24	54	46
11/2-7/23	55	45
9/18-25/23	52	48
7/7-12/23	58	42
1/9-20/23	49	51
7/5-12/22	52	48
1/10-21/22	47	53
11/1-10/21	30	70
9/7-16/21	39	61
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/8-15/20	37	62
9/3-13/19	35	64
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

Among Republicans, 59% say the justices’ decisions are based mainly on the law, whereas 55% of independents and 73% of Democrats say decisions are mainly based on politics. Table 4 shows these results.

Table 4: Justices’ decisions based mainly on law or politics

Among Adults

Party ID	Basis of decisions
	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
Total	57	43
Republican	41	59
Independent	55	45
Democrat	73	27
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

Amid debate about the ethical standards of the Court, the public is more likely to rate the honesty and ethical standards of Supreme Court justices as low or very low (38%) than to rate them as high or very high (27%). The remaining 34% rate the justices’ ethical standards as average. Despite calls for a strengthened code of ethics for justices, opinions about the justices in this respect have not changed much since May 2023, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Rate the ethical standards of justices

Among Adults

Poll dates	Rating
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
7/24-8/1/24	27	34	38
2/5-15/24	27	37	36
11/2-7/23	28	39	34
9/18-25/23	30	41	29
7/7-12/23	32	33	35
5/8-18/23	26	39	35
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?

 

Attention to news about the Court

Table 6 shows the trend in attention to news about the Court from September 2023 to July 2024. Few respondents had heard a lot about the Court in the past month in either September or November, but there has been some increase since. Following major decisions at the end of the term in late June and on July 1, awareness of news about the Court increased in July. Even so, more than half in each poll since September say they’ve heard only a little about the Court in the last month.

Table 6: Attention to news about the Court

Among Adults

Poll dates	How much heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/24-8/1/24	32	54	14
5/6-15/24	27	52	21
3/18-28/24	30	50	19
2/5-15/24	24	56	20
11/2-7/23	15	60	25
9/18-25/23	17	61	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?

The Court has had a majority of justices appointed by Republican presidents since 1970, a span of nearly 54 years, with the exception of a 14-month vacancy in 2016-17 which created a 4-4 tie in terms of such appointments. The current Court has six justices appointed by Republicans and three appointed by Democrats. Nonetheless, 24% of adults believe a majority of justices were definitely or probably appointed by Democratic presidents. Forty-one percent say a majority were probably appointed by Republican presidents and 35% say the majority were definitely appointed by Republicans. This opinion has varied modestly since 2019, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents

Among Adults

Poll dates	Majority appointed by
	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
7/24-8/1/24	24	41	35
5/6-15/24	28	40	33
3/18-28/24	25	43	32
2/5-15/24	29	38	33
11/2-7/23	26	43	30
9/18-25/23	26	42	32
7/7-12/23	22	42	36
5/8-18/23	29	41	30
3/13-22/23	27	41	31
1/9-20/23	23	41	36
11/15-22/22	24	40	35
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Knowledge of which party’s presidents have appointed a majority of the Court varies by party, with 26% of Republicans saying there is definitely a majority appointed by Republicans. Many more Democrats, 47%, say there is definitely a majority of Republican appointees. Likewise, 33% of Republicans say a majority were definitely or probably appointed by Democrats, while 14% of Democrats believe a majority were appointed by Democratic presidents. The full results are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents, by party identification

Among Adults

Party ID	Majority appointed by
	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Total	24	41	35
Republican	33	42	26
Independent	34	43	20
Democrat	14	39	47
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

 

Confidence in institutions

Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 9. Juries in criminal cases enjoy the highest confidence of the five institutions, as well as the lowest percentage of those saying they have little or no confidence. Each of the other institutions has more respondents expressing little or no confidence than a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. The Presidency has the second highest level of confidence, followed by the U.S. Supreme Court.. Congress has the second lowest confidence rating, with 13% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence and 47% saying they have little or no confidence in Congress. The lowest confidence is in the national new media with just 12% having a great deal or a lot of confidence, and over half, 57%, with little or no confidence.

Table 9: Confidence in institutions

Among Adults

Institution	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Juries that decide criminal cases	39	41	20
The Presidency	32	33	35
U.S. Supreme Court	26	32	42
Congress	13	40	47
National news media	12	31	57
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

As approval of the Supreme Court has declined, so has confidence in the Court. In 2019, 39% had a great deal or a lot of confidence in the Court, while 16% had little or no confidence. In this July poll, the balance has sharply reversed, with 26% having a great deal or a lot of confidence while 42% have little or no confidence. The full trend is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Confidence in the Supreme Court, 2019-2024

Among Adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/24-8/1/24	26	32	42
5/6-15/24	24	37	40
3/18-28/24	30	37	33
2/5-15/24	25	35	40
11/2-7/23	28	36	36
9/18-25/23	28	37	35
7/7-12/23	31	32	37
5/8-18/23	25	36	39
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

 

Perceived ideological leaning of the Court

In this July survey, 28% describe the Supreme Court as “very conservative,” 30% describe it as “somewhat conservative,” and 32% call the Court “moderate,” while 7% see the Court as “somewhat liberal” and 3% believe it is “very liberal.”

Views of the Court have shifted to the right since 2019, with fewer seeing the Court as moderate and more seeing it as conservative or very conservative, as shown in Table 11. The shift in perceptions is most apparent in May and July 2022, around the time of news of the Dobbs decision overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision.

Table 11: Perceived ideological leaning of the Court, 2019-2024

Among Adults

Poll dates	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
7/24-8/1/24	28	30	32	7	3
5/6-15/24	25	32	31	10	2
3/18-28/24	25	32	33	8	3
2/5-15/24	21	34	33	7	5
11/2-7/23	21	35	32	7	5
9/18-25/23	20	37	32	7	3
7/7-12/23	27	35	28	7	3
5/8-18/23	24	33	30	10	3
3/13-22/23	23	35	34	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following… The U.S. Supreme Court

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 1005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey concerning the 2024 presidential election were released previously, on Aug. 8.

Wording of questions about recent and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about recent decisions includes:

U.S. v. Rahimi

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that it does not violate the Second Amendment for the government to take guns away from people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from a court. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, rejecting a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the pill. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld city ordinances that prohibit people who are homeless from sleeping and camping on public property, ruling that such ordinances do not constitute cruel and unusual punishment prohibited by the Constitution. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Trump v. Anderson

• In March, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo

• Version 1: In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
• Version 2: In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 1984 decision that required courts to defer to executive agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes, ruling instead that courts must exercise their independent judgment on all questions of statutory interpretation made by agencies administering statutes. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Garland v. Cargill

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives had exceeded its statutory authority when it prohibited bump stocks, which enable semiautomatic rifles to fire at speeds rivaling those of machine guns. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Trump v. U.S.

• In July, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that, while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

The wording of questions about prior decisions include:

Obergefell v. Hodges

• In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen

• In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization

In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%. These results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.

In a May 6-15, 2024, Marquette Law School Poll national survey, Trump was the choice of 50% and President Joe Biden was the pick of 50% Among registered voters, while Trump took 51% of likely voters and Biden 49%.

When the ballot question explicitly includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent candidate Cornel West, Harris receives 47% and Trump 41% Among registered voters. Kennedy is supported by 9%, Oliver receives 1%, Stein is the choice of 2%, and West wins 1%, among these voters. Among likely voters, Harris is supported by 50% and Trump 42%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, and West 0%.

In a generic question about congressional races, 52% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 48% will vote for the Republican candidate. In May, 50% picked the Democrat and 50% picked the Republican.

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

Reaction to Biden’s withdrawal and to Harris

A large majority of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 87% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee, 10% very or somewhat dissatisfied, and 3% who say they don’t know. The poll was completed before Harris secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates.

A substantial majority of all registered voters, 80%, say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 13% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 87% say Biden should have withdrawn.

Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 43% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 11% say they don’t know.

A majority, 56%, say Biden should not resign and should serve out his term as president, while 31% say he should resign and 13% don’t know.

When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 58% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 42% say Harris will definitely or probably win.

The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 69% say Trump would definitely or probably win, while 19% say Biden would win and 12% say they don’t know.

Perceptions of the candidates

Since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50% of registered voters, while 3% say they haven’t heard enough. In May, 35% had a favorable opinion of Harris and 59% had an unfavorable view of her, and 6% hadn’t heard enough. The full trend of Harris favorability is shown in Table 1. This July poll is the best net favorability rating in Marquette polling for Harris since she became vice president.

Table 1: Harris favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/24-8/1/24	-3	47	50	3
5/6-15/24	-24	35	59	6
3/18-28/24	-25	35	60	5
2/5-15/24	-19	37	56	7
11/2-7/23	-26	34	60	6
9/18-25/23	-20	37	57	6
7/7-12/23	-25	33	58	9
5/8-18/23	-26	32	58	10
3/13-22/23	-21	33	54	13
1/9-20/23	-21	35	56	9
11/15-22/22	-16	36	52	12
9/7-14/22	-15	38	53	9
1/10-21/22	-14	37	51	12
11/1-10/21	-8	39	47	14
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was chosen as the Democratic nominee for vice president after the poll was completed.

Opinions of Trump and Vance

Following the July 13 assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee July 15-18, favorability toward Trump rose to 45%, with 53% unfavorable and 1% without an opinion. In May, 41% viewed Trump favorably and 58% unfavorably, with 1% lacking an opinion. The full trend for Trump favorability since 2021 is shown in Table 2. Trump’s net favorability hit a low point in January 2022 but has improved notably in 2023 and 2024. His July net favorability is his best rating since November 2021.

Table 2: Trump favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/24-8/1/24	-8	45	53	1
5/6-15/24	-17	41	58	1
3/18-28/24	-13	43	56	1
2/5-15/24	-9	45	54	1
11/2-7/23	-15	42	57	2
9/18-25/23	-15	42	57	1
7/7-12/23	-28	35	63	2
5/8-18/23	-21	38	59	2
3/13-22/23	-29	34	63	2
1/9-20/23	-26	36	62	2
11/15-22/22	-36	31	67	1
9/7-14/22	-30	34	64	2
7/5-12/22	-27	35	62	3
5/9-19/22	-23	37	60	2
3/14-24/22	-22	38	60	2
1/10-21/22	-37	31	68	1
11/1-10/21	-34	32	66	2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is seen favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 45%, with 25% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans and is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats, as shown in Table 3. Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and particularly independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.

Table 3: Vance favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	58	16	26
Independent	22	35	43
Democrat	4	74	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Vance is seen as an excellent pick for the vice-presidential slot by 12%, as a good choice by 21%, as a fair choice by 14%, and as a poor selection by 36%, with 17% who say they don’t know. Almost two-thirds of Republicans rate the choice of Vance as excellent or good, while just under half of independents say fair or poor, and almost two-thirds of Democrats rate it poor, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Vance as VP, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Rate choice of Vance as VP
	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Don’t know
Republican	25	40	17	9	9
Independent	6	13	29	20	31
Democrat	1	4	10	63	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you rate Trump’s choice of Vance for vice president? Would you rate this choice as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Biden and the “double haters”

Favorability toward Biden improved slightly following his withdrawal from the presidential race to 42% favorable and 58% unfavorable, a 3-point improvement in favorability ratings. The full trend for Biden since November 2021 is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Biden favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/24-8/1/24	-16	42	58	1
5/6-15/24	-21	39	60	1
3/18-28/24	-20	40	60	1
2/5-15/24	-20	40	60	1
11/2-7/23	-19	40	59	1
9/18-25/23	-21	39	60	1
7/7-12/23	-17	41	58	1
5/8-18/23	-23	37	60	3
3/13-22/23	-15	41	56	3
1/9-20/23	-11	43	54	2
11/15-22/22	-6	46	52	3
9/7-14/22	-9	44	53	2
7/5-12/22	-26	35	61	3
5/9-19/22	-17	40	57	3
3/14-24/22	-10	44	54	2
1/10-21/22	-6	46	52	3
11/1-10/21	-5	45	50	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” declined slightly in July. For Biden and Trump, 21% were unfavorable to both in May, a group which group shrank to 14% in July. For Harris and Trump, 10% have an unfavorable view of both in July, a decrease from May when 21% were unfavorable to both Harris and Trump.

Characteristics of Harris, Trump and Biden

The replacement of Biden by Harris has changed the relative perceptions of the candidates, with Harris having different perceived traits from Biden. Table 6 shows which phrases describe Harris, Trump, and Biden. The Biden numbers are from the May poll, while Harris and Trump perceptions are from July.

Unlike Biden, few respondents (13%) see Harris as too old to be president; the number was 79% for Biden. Trump is seen as too old by 57%.

Harris performs slightly better than Biden or Trump on “shares my values,” and is less likely to be seen as having behaved corruptly than is Biden and much less so than is Trump.

Trump maintains an advantage on having strong accomplishments, where Harris is seen as only slightly more accomplished than Biden.

Harris has a substantial advantage over Trump on having the right temperament to be president and does a bit better than Biden on this.

Trump is seen as a strong leader by more voters than is Harris, although the margin is modest.

Table 6: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump or Biden

Among registered voters

Candidate	How well phrase describes
	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well
Is too old to be president
Harris	13	87
Trump	57	43
Biden	79	21
Shares your values
Harris	51	49
Trump	45	55
Biden	45	55
Has behaved corruptly
Harris	35	65
Trump	61	39
Biden	44	56
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris	44	56
Trump	53	47
Biden	41	59
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris	58	42
Trump	41	59
Biden	52	48
Is a strong leader
Harris	50	50
Trump	56	44
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)(Joe Biden)?
Note: Biden items asked in May. Strong leader was not asked in May.

Respondents were also asked if Harris and Trump have the communication skills to succeed as president. For Harris, 50% say she does have the skills needed and 38% say she does not, while 12% say they don’t know. For Trump, 48% say he has the communication skills to succeed as president, while 47% say he does not and 5% say they don’t know. This has not been asked about Biden.

Following Trump’s New York criminal trial in May, 56% say Trump is guilty as the jury found, while 33% say he is not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling, and 11% don’t know.

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in September. Twenty-six percent say he should be given no penalty at all, 13% say a fine only, 10% say probation without jail, 38% say he should be sentenced to jail, and 13% don’t know.

On July 15, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida dismissed the classified-documents case against Trump, ruling that the appointment of the special prosecutor violated the Constitution. In the survey, 39% favor that decision, while 44% oppose the ruling and 17% say they don’t know. A majority, 75%, believe Trump had top secret and other classified documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago in Florida in 2022, while 24% believe he did not.

Ideological perceptions of the candidates

Both candidates are seen as more ideologically extreme than voters see themselves. Among all registered voters, 36% describe themselves as having “moderate” political views, 13% say their views are “very conservative,” and 12% say they are “very liberal.”

Among registered voters, 19% see Harris as moderate, while 41% see her as very liberal. Ten percent of voters see Trump as moderate and 48% see him as very conservative. These perceptions, along with those of Biden, are shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Ideological perceptions of candidates and self

Among registered voters

Perception of	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
Harris	3	7	19	30	41
Trump	48	31	10	4	6
Biden	3	9	25	25	39
Self	13	24	36	15	12
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views? Note: Biden measured in May survey

Which candidate is better on issues

Table 8 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy. He also holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, Medicare and Social Security, and health care.

Between 14% and 22% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.

Table 8: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Harris	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	35	53	5	7
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza	32	46	10	12
The economy	37	49	10	4
Foreign relations	41	44	9	6
Health care	47	35	11	7
Medicare & Social Security	49	36	10	6
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	48	33	11	8
Abortion policy	54	31	8	6
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issue

Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration. Three issues are tied for next most important—abortion policy, Medicare and Social Security, and ensuring fair elections—as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Most important issue

Among registered voters

	Most important
Response	Percent
The economy	38
Immigration and border security	15
Abortion policy	10
Medicare & Social Security	10
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	10
Health care	5
Foreign relations	3
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza	2
Don’t know	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 10. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important and immigration a distant second, with no other issue reaching double digits. Democrats put the economy first, followed by abortion policy, ensuring fair elections, and Medicare and Social Security. Only 4% of Democrats rank immigration as their top concern.

Table 10: Most important issue, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Issue
	The economy	Immigration and border security	Health care	Foreign relations	Abortion policy	Medicare & Social Security	The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	Ensuring fair and accurate elections	Don’t know
Republican	48	28	2	3	2	7	1	5	4
Independent	34	11	3	1	2	9	3	9	27
Democrat	29	4	9	3	18	13	3	15	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Support for deporting illegal immigrants

Support for deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally varies depending on the framing of the issue. A random half-sample of the survey was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

With this wording, 61% favor deportation and 39% are opposed.

The other half-sample was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs, and no criminal record?

When worded this way, 45% favor deportations and 55% are opposed.

Multicandidate vote trends

The trend in vote preference including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 11. Oliver, the Libertarian, was not included prior to this July poll. The total third-party vote has declined from 20% in February to 13% now, with Kennedy falling from 15% to 9% over that time Among registered voters.

Table 11: Vote including third-party candidates

Poll dates	Vote choice
	Biden/Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oliver	Stein	West
Registered voters
7/24-8/1/24	47	41	9	1	2	1
5/6-15/24	37	40	17	n/a	3	3
3/18-28/24	38	41	14	n/a	2	5
2/5-15/24	39	42	15	n/a	2	3
Likely voters
7/24-8/1/24	50	42	6	1	1	<.5
5/6-15/24	41	44	11	n/a	2	2
3/18-28/24	41	41	13	n/a	2	4
2/5-15/24	40	43	14	n/a	1	1
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West?

Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting

Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from May to July, as shown in Table 12. In the current survey, 54% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, a substantial increase from 43% in May. This was the first substantial movement in enthusiasm in 2024, with less than 50% saying they were very enthusiastic in all previous 2024 polls until July.

Table 12: Enthusiasm to vote in November election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
7/24-8/1/24	54	26	14	6
5/6-15/24	43	26	21	10
3/18-28/24	37	28	26	9
2/5-15/24	41	33	19	7
11/2-7/23	42	32	21	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm has increased substantially among Democrats, with a small increase among Republicans. Republicans had a consistent enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls, but this has been mostly erased now, as shown in Table 13. Independents have a quite low level of enthusiasm, which increased only slightly in the latest poll.

Table 13: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Democrat
7/24-8/1/24	55	26	15	5
5/6-15/24	34	31	24	11
3/18-28/24	35	27	31	8
2/5-15/24	34	33	25	8
11/2-7/23	36	34	23	7
Independent
7/24-8/1/24	24	21	29	26
5/6-15/24	20	15	33	32
3/18-28/24	18	30	25	26
2/5-15/24	21	32	27	20
11/2-7/23	20	36	33	10
Republican
7/24-8/1/24	58	27	11	4
5/6-15/24	55	22	16	6
3/18-28/24	43	29	21	7
2/5-15/24	52	33	12	4
11/2-7/23	54	28	16	2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

The race is very tight among the very and somewhat enthusiastic, with a slight Harris edge among the very enthusiastic and a slight Trump advantage among the somewhat enthusiastic. Those who are not too enthusiastic and those not at all enthusiastic give Harris larger margins, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Vote for Harris or Trump by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Harris	Trump	Someone else
Very enthusiastic	52	48	0
Somewhat enthusiastic	49	50	1
Not too enthusiastic	55	45	0
Not at all enthusiastic	62	38	0
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump]?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

In May, with Biden as the Democratic candidate, this enthusiasm gap was much more pronounced, as shown in Table 15. Trump held a larger margin then with the very enthusiastic than Harris now has and Biden had larger margins than either candidate now has with all less enthusiastic groups.

Table 15: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm, May 2024

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump
Very enthusiastic	38	62
Somewhat enthusiastic	57	43
Not too enthusiastic	55	45
Not at all enthusiastic	69	31
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between President Joe Biden, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

Biden’s job approval in July stands at 39%, with disapproval at 61%, little changed since May. Table 16 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 16: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	39	61	16	23	19	42
5/6-15/24	40	60	13	27	17	44
3/18-28/24	40	60	12	27	14	46
2/5-15/24	38	62	12	26	18	43
11/2-7/23	40	60	13	26	16	45
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In July, 48% approved and 52% disapproved. The recent trend is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Trump retrospective job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	48	52	29	19	10	42
5/6-15/24	46	54	26	20	13	41
3/18-28/24	47	53	25	22	12	40
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

Economic conditions and personal financial situation

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 4%, as good by 30%, as not so good by 33%, and as poor by 33%. Views of the economy have seen an increasing percentage saying the economy is “poor” since February, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll dates	National economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
7/24-8/1/24	4	30	33	33
5/6-15/24	3	28	38	31
3/18-28/24	5	28	38	29
2/5-15/24	6	29	40	25
11/2-7/23	3	24	40	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 38% say they are living comfortably, 41% say they are just getting by, and 21% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 19. The percentage who say they are struggling has risen slightly since February, while the percentage living comfortably has declined slightly.

Table 19: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
7/24-8/1/24	38	41	21
5/6-15/24	40	42	18
3/18-28/24	46	38	16
2/5-15/24	42	41	17
11/2-7/23	39	43	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

A final look at Biden vs. Trump since 2021

 

The Marquette Law School Poll has found a small but consistent Trump advantage over Biden Among registered voters since May 2023. This was a change from the earlier 2023 Marquette Law School Poll surveys, which saw Biden and Trump drawing equal support, and from the 2022 and 2021 polls, which showed Biden with sizeable leads over Trump. The trend, including those saying they would vote for someone else or not vote, is shown in Table 20

Table 20: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, including someone else, November 2021-July 2024

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Vote
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
7/24-8/1/24	43	47	11	0
5/6-15/24	40	44	14	2
3/18-28/24	42	44	13	2
2/5-15/24	42	45	9	4
11/2-7/23	40	42	15	2
9/18-25/23	39	44	12	4
7/7-12/23	37	38	19	5
5/8-18/23	34	41	19	7
3/13-22/23	38	38	20	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3
11/15-22/22	44	34	19	4
9/7-14/22	42	36	19	3
3/14-24/22	43	38	16	4
1/10-21/22	45	33	18	4
11/1-10/21	43	35	18	4
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn’t vote)
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn’t vote)

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court are held for release on Aug. 9. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.