MONTREAL — If the adage is an NHL playoff series does not truly begin until a home team loses a game, you can make book that this opening-round matchup between the Rangers and Canadiens will be over almost before it begins if the Blueshirts fail to win one of the first two that will be played on Wednesday and Friday.
That’s the cold, hard truth confronting a Rangers team that hasn’t played with authority for nearly two months, winning just 11 of their final 26 games (11-10-5) overall while stumbling through the Simon and Garfunkel “Sounds of Silence” Garden nearly all season, winning 11 of 30 on Broadway (11-15-4) from the second week of November through the end of March.
Seriously, is there anyone who believes the Rangers — who have lost five straight playoff games at home by a sum of 18-3 dating back to Game 2 of the 2015 conference finals against Tampa Bay — would be able to win four of the final five against the Canadiens after dropping the first two, and with three of them at MSG?
The Rangers will need Henrik Lundqvist to hit a consistent peak level of performance he has not reached/maintained since early February 2016. They will need the defense and (supporting forwards) to maintain structure and refrain from chasing the puck and the Habs willy-nilly around their own end, and, just as importantly, the Blueshirts will need to establish a neutral-zone forecheck that creates turnovers and springs odd-man counters on which the club lived large the first three-plus months. A possession game below the hash marks would help the team with the worst five-on-five Corsi that qualified for the playoffs.
But while acknowledging the Blueshirts’ flaws, let’s also acknowledge these aren’t exactly the 1976-77 Canadiens on the other side, either. Carey Price is a stud in nets, so is Shea Weber on defense and Max Pacioretty and Alex Radulov can be handfuls for this quick and talented team that bulked up at the deadline, but the Habs probably present the weakest complement of centers the Rangers have faced in the playoffs since, well, since the 2014 conference finals against … Montreal!
The matchups:
Goaltending
The aura of Carey Price looms large over this series. After scoring a total of two goals in their previous eight matchups in Montreal against the quick, athletic, competitive goaltender with outstanding lateral movement who seems to fill the net, the Rangers scored four goals on him in their Jan. 14, 5-4 defeat.
“That’s means as much going forward as the fact we got two in the eight games before that. Which is to say, it doesn’t mean anything,” said Derek Stepan. “What we have to do is take his eyes away and have a shooter’s mentality.”
Henrik Lundqvist, coming off a bumpy year, has lost seven straight decisions here (0-6-1, 4.42 goals against average, .869 save percentage) since the end of the 2008-09 season. But The King, who has victories in Games 1 and 2 of the 2014 conference finals from which to gain positive reinforcement, seems quietly confident entering this series.
If Lundqvist and the Rangers falter, it is not at all inconceivable coach Alain Vigneault would turn to estimable backup Antti Raanta (16-8-2, 2.26, .922), who won here toward the end of last season when the Habs were out the playoff race and Mike Condon started in nets.
Edge: Montreal
Defense
Shea Weber is a closer and the type of elite defenseman teams game-plan against. Montreal coach Claude Julien has the final matchup at home, of course, where he probably will use it to sic No. 6 on Chris Kreider. But that means a comparatively easier matchup for Rick Nash. Andrei Markov pairs with Weber while Alexei Emelin (the man who clipped Kreider on the back of his skate to thus trigger the collision the Canadiens suddenly claim not to remember) skates with Jeff Petry on a mobile tandem. Jordie Benn adds a third-pair physical presence. The Rangers will want to force these guys to turn and handle the puck behind the goal line, being careful to keep their dump-ins away from Price’s reach.
So Vigneault has chosen for Game 1 to keep intact the Marc Staal-Nick Holden pair that’s been a disaster area for two months instead of sitting the independently struggling Holden in favor of healthy-scratch Kevin Klein. We’ll see about that. Dan Girardi will assume his role on the matchup pair’s right side with Ryan McDonagh, from whom the Rangers will need an elite 25-27 minutes a night. The third pair is made up of freshman Brady Skjei, from whom much is required, and Brendan Smith, whose play turned undisciplined near the end.
Edge: Even
Forwards
The Canadiens like to get out and go on the transition and take advantage of their speed though Alexander Radulov presents a blend of talent, size and attitude that is difficult to contain one-on-one. Alex Galchenyuk, Phillip Danault and Paul Byron can fly, Max Pacioretty is a sniper, Brendan Gallagher is a pain around the net and two-time Cup-winning import from Chicago, Andrew Shaw, is a suspension waiting to happen. The Habs added deadline muscle in Dwight King and Steve Ott. The centers are Danault, Tomas Plekanec, Shaw and Ott (if he dresses).
The Rangers’ first-half success was driven by uncommon scoring depth, much of it provided by third-line components Michael Grabner (26), J.T. Miller (18) and Kevin Hayes (14), who combined for 58 goals in the club’s first 54 games. The trio, however, scored a sum of eight goals over the final 28 matches, with Grabner getting one, Miller four and Hayes three. The Tanner Glass-Oscar Lindberg-Jesper Fast fourth line needs to be effective on the forecheck. Rick Nash will need to step up, Kreider will need to play with an unencumbered mind and Mika Zibanejad must answer the bell.
Edge: Rangers
Specialty teams
Weber is Montreal’s big gun back at the point who scored 12 power-play goals to lead NHL defensemen in that category. Pacioretty likes to shoot in off the wing and Radulov can score one-on-one, while Gallagher and Shaw are among the cast of dozens that crowds the net for the league’s 13th-ranked (19.6 percent) man-advantage unit. The Canadiens, 14th killing penalties at 81.1 percent, like to pressure the puck shorthanded.
The Blueshirts’ power play hummed down the stretch, 13-for-37 (35.1 percent) over the final 15 games, to finish 11th in the NHL at 20.2 percent, with the Kreider-Stepan-Zibanejad-Zuccarello-McDonagh/Skjei unit on for most of the damage. The penalty-killers were a bit better the past week or so, but it is a giant question mark entering the playoffs at 19th in the league at 79.8 percent.
Edge: Even
Coaching
Julien and Boston 4, Vigneault and Vancouver 3 in the 2011 Cup final that still seems to haunt the New York coach.
Edge: Even
Prediction
If the Rangers take one of the first two, they will win the series. If they lose them both, they will be crushed. I believe they will find a way to leave here with at least an opening split. Hence…
Rangers in six