Throughout our lives, there are many things we’ve been trained to avoid. Don’t say “I can’t” to anything that appears difficult. Don’t open emails from unknown addresses, especially those claiming to be a Nigerian prince in need of a very specific dollar amount. Don’t watch the 2014 thriller “Airplane vs. Volcano,” starring Dean Cain and Robin Givens.
It is time to add three more to that list — at least for 2024 fantasy drafts.
Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas went largely undrafted last year before hitting .268 with 28 homers, 86 RBIs, 101 runs scored, 20 stolen bases and a .783 OPS. There was no hint anything like that would — or could — happen. This is a player who hit .237 with 29 homers, 94 RBIs, 108 runs, 15 stolen bases and a .726 OPS in 275 big league games from 2019-22. And it isn’t like he tore it up over seven seasons in the minors with his .254 average and .755 OPS.
Because of Thomas’ breakout campaign, he has gone from a draft afterthought to a top-25 outfielder who carries an average draft position of 110.1, according to Fantasy Alarm. That seems insane (almost as insane as willingly sitting down to watch “Airplane vs. Volcano” and expecting to be entertained), especially because this was a player who more or less appeared out of nowhere in 2023.
Joining the 20-20 club after being plucked from the bargain bin was great, especially for fantasy managers who picked up Thomas. But, Roto Rage is skeptical when it comes to his ability to repeat. His 5.3 percent walk rate was the 12th-lowest in the majors, and his 25.8 percent whiff rate was the 24th-worst mark. His xBA (.255) was about 20 points below his actual average, and his xSLG (.436) was more than 30 points below his .468 slugging percentage.
A bigger concern: Thomas’ second half. He started strong — hitting .302 with 14 homers, 49 RBIs, 60 runs, eight stolen bases and a .845 OPS in the first half. Despite hitting another 14 homers and stealing 12 bases in the second half, he hit .223 with a .705 OPS after the All-Star break. His on-base percentage dipped from .347 to .274 in that span.
Was that the first sign of regression?
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For that price, Roto Rage would prefer an outfielder like St. Louis’ Jordan Walker or Chicago’s Seiya Suzuki, or waiting for guys such as Tyler O’Neill, James Outman or Riley Greene later on.
Thomas will be productive, but the underlying numbers point toward regression from a player who doesn’t have a history of the type of production he put up in 2023.
Esteury Ruiz’s (125.65 ADP) 67 stolen bases was the second-best mark in the majors in 2023 — and he did it in 497 plate appearances, nearly 240 less than league-leader Ronald Acuna Jr. But, he doesn’t hit for power and his walk rate is non-existent. His OBP in ’23 was below average and his xBA (.234) was 20 points below his actual average (.254). He is a one-trick pony, hitting at the bottom of an awful A’s lineup, who is being drafted above more well-rounded players because he is very fast. Hard pass.
Luis Robert (33.1) is coming off a great season (.264, 38 HR, 80 RBIs, 90 R, 20 SB, .857 OPS), the first in which he surpassed 100 games played (before 2023, he never played more than 98 games in a season). The issue is not talent, he has got plenty of that. The issue is his high price tag, injury history and likelihood of hitting in the middle of a low-scoring White Sox offense.
Roto Rage Jarad Wilk ranks Outfielders
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1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atl
2. Julio Rodriguez, Sea
3. Corbin Carroll, Ari
4. Mookie Betts, LAD
5. Juan Soto, NYY
6. Kyle Tucker, Hou
7. Aaron Judge, NYY
8. Yordan Alvarez, Hou
9. Adolis Garcia, Tex
10. Fernando Tatis, SD
11. Michael Harris II, Atl
12. Randy Arozarena, TB
13. Kyle Schwarber, Phi
14. Nolan Jones, Col
15. Cody Bellinger, ChC
16. Luis Robert, CWS
17. Mike Trout, LAA
18. Josh Lowe, TB
19. Jazz Chisholm, Mia
20. Bryan Reynolds, Pit
21. Evan Carter, Tex
22. Jordan Walker, StL
23. Cedric Mullins, Bal
24. Teoscar Hernandez, LAD
25. Nick Castellanos, Phi
26. Spencer Steer, Cin
27. Christian Yelich, Mil
28. James Outman, LAD
29. Anthony Santander, Bal
30. Ian Happ, ChC
31. Esteury Ruiz, Oak
32. Seiya Suzuki, ChC
33. Geroge Springer, Tor
34. Jack Suwinski, Pit
35. Tommy Edman, StL
36. TJ Friedl, Cin
37. Chas McCormick, Hou
38. Brandon Nimmo, NYM
39. Jorge Soler, SF
40. Lane Thomas, Was
41. Riley Greene, Det
42. Taylor Ward, LAA
43. Jake Fraley, Cin
44. Sal Frelick,Mil
45. Christopher Morel, ChC
46. Tommy Pham, FA
47. Jarren Duran, Bos
48. Masataka Yoshia, Bos
49. Lourdes Gurriel, Ari
50. Starling Marte, NYM
51. Tyler O’Neill, Bos
52. Kerry Carpenter, Det
53. Eloy Jimenez, CWS
54. Daulton Varsho, Tor
55. Hunter Renfroe,KC
56. Austin Hays, Bal
57. Jeff McNeil, NYM
58. Joey Wiemer, Mil
59. Whit Merrifield, Phi
60. Alex Kirilloff,Min
61. Adam Duvall, Atl
62. Brent Rooker, Oak
63. Alex Verdugo, NYY
64. Luke Raley, Sea
65. Giancarlo Stanton, NYY
66. Mark Canha, Det
67. Luis Matos, SF
68. Nelson Velazquez, KC
69. Jung Hoo Lee, SF
70. Will Benson, Cin
71. Steven Kwan, Cle
72. Luis Rengifo, LAA
73. Randal Grichuk, Ari
74. Lars Nootbaar, StL
75. Andrew Benintendi, CWS
76. Jarred Kelenic, Atl
77. Harold Ramirez, TB
78. Max Kepler, Min
79. Joc Pederson, Ari
80. Mitch Haniger, Sea
81. Bryan De La Cruz, Mia
82. Chris Taylor, LAD
83. Matt Wallner, Min
84. Jose Siri, TB
85. Charlie Blackmon, Col
86. Alek Thomas, Ari
87. Colton Cowser, Bal
88. Michael Conforto, SF
89. LaMonte Wade, SF
90. MJ Melendez, KC
91. Parker Meadows, Det
92. Michael A. Taylor, Pit
93. Jackson Chourio, Mil
94. Will Brennan, Cle
95. Willi Castro, Min
96. Brandon Marsh, Phi
97. Trent Grisham, NYY
98. Brenton Doyle, Col
99. Garrett Mitchell, Mil
100. Seth Brown, Oak
101. Jesus Sanchez, Mia
102. Mike Yastrzemski, SF
103. Jon Berti, Mia
104. Eddie Rosario, Was
105. Leody Taveras, Tex
106. Oscar Colas, CWS
107. Kris Bryant, Col
108. Harrison Bader, NYM
109. Myles Straw, Cle
110. Kiké Hernandez, LAD
111. Jurickson Profar, SD
112. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
113. Robbie Grossman, FA
114. Drew Waters, KC
115. Senger Peralta, CHC
116. JJ Bleday, Oak
117. Joey Gallo, Was
118. Edward Olivares, Pit
119. Manuel Margot, Min
120. Adam Frazier, KC
121. Tyrone Taylor, NYM
122. Ramon Laureano, Cle
123. Kevin Kiermaier, Tor
124. Brendan Donovan, StL
125. Jake McCarthy, Ari
Team name of the week
A Christmas Carroll