“Little patience, yeah, yeah;
Need a little patience, yeah;
Just a little patience, yeah;
Some more patience.”
— Guns N’ Roses, “Patience” (1989)
It is frustrating to see your best players, the guys who cost the most at draft time, struggle. They are your cornerstones. They’re supposed to carry your squad to fantasy glory.
You don’t expect perfection, but you don’t expect extensive slumps either. But, it happens.
For instance, Corbin Carroll has barely struck out and ranks seventh in stolen bases, but he hit just .208 with a .582 OPS in his first 112 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, despite his 16.1 percent walk rate, was hitting .186 after 118 plate appearances. Randy Arozarena owned the sixth-worst average in the league. George Kirby had a 5.33 ERA after five starts, and Luis Castillo allowed five homers en route to a 4.15 ERA in his first six.
Does it hurt to see those numbers? Of course, but you should also realize just 15 percent of the season has been played. Be patient!
There is so much time to turn it around — and some have already begun to show signs of life (including Kirby and Castillo).
Logan Webb owned a 4.86 ERA and a .319 opponents average in his first three starts, but he was 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and .184 opponents average in his next three starts.
Julio Rodriguez was hitting .191 with a .456 OPS through 17 games but entered the weekend hitting .276 after going 15-for-35 (.429) in his next six games.
Francisco Lindor raised his average from a horrendous .103 on April 13 to a still very ugly .206 after going 14-for-39 (.359) with three homers, eight RBIs and a 1.046 OPS.
This is why they’re called cold streaks — it’s a (mostly) brief run of bad luck. It may not feel brief, but Roto Rage urges you to not act out of frustration, because that is when mistakes are made.
Nolan Jones, who has been dealing with back stiffness, is off to a truly terrible start. It has been so awful that he was actually the fourth-most dropped outfielder in ESPN leagues.
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This is what Roto Rage would consider a mistake.
Yes, he entered Friday with the fourth-worst batting average (.148) in the majors while striking out in 37.5 percent of his at-bats, and owning the 11th-lowest slugging percentage and third-worst on-base percentage.
But that doesn’t take away from the fact he had a 55.8 average draft position (the No. 14 outfielder), according to Fantasy Alarm.
It doesn’t erase the fact he finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 after hitting .297 with 20 homers, 62 RBIs, 60 runs, 20 stolen bases and a .931 OPS over 106 games.
It doesn’t change the fact he hit .280 with 72 homers, 304 RBIs and a .869 OPS over seven seasons in the minors.
Jones still hits the ball hard, with his max exit velocity (112 mph) ranking in the top 50. His overall contact rate and contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone are up. His sprint speed is in the 82nd percentile, and he is still walking 8.3 percent of the time. He has been taking more pitches in the zone, being more passive rather than attacking. That can change.
Jones is a great buy-low option (and, no, not because of the Coors Field factor). He is just too talented. He also shouldn’t cost too much — heck, there is a chance he is available in your league with a slew of fantasy managers already jumping ship.
Ditching talented players, especially one who was selected in the first five rounds, for the next one-week wonder is a mistake. When players like Jones struggle, even for an extended period of time, let them ride the pine. Don’t kick them to the curb!
Be patient!
Big hits
Travis d’Arnaud C, Braves
The pace is unsustainable, but he was 8-for-13 (.615) with five homers, 11 RBIs, six runs and a 2.513 OPS in his past six games before Friday.
Ranger Suarez SP, Phillies
Took the mound Saturday against San Diego having not allowed an earned run in his previous three starts, going 3-0 with a 21-4 strikeout-walk rate and .153 opponent average in that span.
Josh Naylor 1B, Guardians
Had at least one hit in 19 of his first 24 games and was hitting .305 with five homers, 15 RBIs and a .989 OPS over his past 16 games.
Jon Gray SP, Rangers
Allowed five runs in his first start, but is 0-1 with a 1.29 ERA, 30-8 strikeout-walk rate and .222 opponents average in his past five outings.
Big whiffs
Kyle Schwarber OF, Phillies
Though he has walked eight times, he had just four hits (three of which were homers) in his past 51 at-bats (.100). In that span, he struck out 21 times, and owned a .235 on-base percentage and .560 OPS.
Garrett Crochet SP, White Sox
Was 1-2 with a 2.00 ERA in his first three starts, but is 0-3 with a 13.11 ERA, .327 opponents average and four homers allowed in his past three.
Oneil Cruz SS, Pirates
Struck out 21 times over his past 14 games while hitting .192 with one homer, four RBIs, one run and a .552 OPS during the stretch.
Steven Matz SP, Cardinals
He is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA (12 ER in his past 9 ¹/₃ innings) and a .325 opponents average in his past two starts. He walked six in those starts.
Check swings
– Reynaldo Lopez, the most added player in ESPN leagues this week, had not allowed more than one earned run in any of his first four starts and lasted six innings or more in each outing. Opponents are hitting .167 and have a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate against him. He has a 36.1 percent whiff rate with his slider.
– Opponents are hitting .063 against the Rangers’ Kirby Yates, who didn’t allow a run over his first nine appearances and is 1-0 with three saves, six strikeouts and only one hit allowed in his past four outings (five innings).
– Baltimore’s Jackson Holliday hit .059 with no homers, one RBI, five runs and a .170 OPS in his first 10 games before being sent back to Triple-A on Friday. He struck out 18 times in his first 36 at-bats and walked just 5.6 percent of the time.
– The Pirates are reportedly still taking things slowly with Paul Skenes, but it is worth noting that he owns a 0.53 ERA, is striking out 18 per nine innings (34 over his first 17 innings) and opponents are hitting .164 against him in Triple-A. He was rostered in 26.1 percent of ESPN leagues as of Friday and is worth a stash if you have the roster space.
Team name of the week
Senga Genesis
