Jerome Powell urges patience on rate cuts after key inflation index higher than expected
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitted Tuesday inflation was falling more slowly than expected after a key gauge exceeded analysts’ estimates.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures prices at the wholesale level, increased by 0.5% last month, topping the 0.3% forecast by Dow Jones — and signaling continued pressure on consumers.
Powell said the Fed will likely have to keep decades-high interest rates at current levels for longer than initially hoped during the annual general meeting of the Foreign Bankers’ Association in Amsterdam.
“I expect that inflation will move back down … on a monthly basis to levels that were more like the lower readings that we were having last year,” Powell said.
However, he said “my confidence in that is not as high as it was” given faster than expected inflation through the first three months of the year.
“We did not expect this to be a smooth road. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected,” Powell said.
“What that has told us is that we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”
Powell maintained that it remained unlikely the Fed would have to raise rates any further, even if the prospect for rate cuts has become less certain.
“It is more likely … we hold the policy rate where it is,” he said.
His comments largely restated those made at his press conference after this month’s Fed meeting, which kept rates steady in a 5.25% to 5.5% range.
Investors continue to anticipate an initial rate cut in September. The markets rallied in the afternoon, with all three indexes in the green.
A more significant data release comes Wednesday when information on consumer prices in April is published.
Powell spoke just hours after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that wholesale prices rose more than expected in April amid strong gains in the costs of services like portfolio management and hotel accommodation — indicating that inflation remained stubbornly high early in the second quarter.
Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI was also up 0.5% – above the Dow Jones estimate of 0.2%.
When trade services were excluded from core PPI, wholesale prices were up 0.4% last month.
Year over year, wholesale inflation rose 2.2% in April, while core PPI minus trade services was up 3.1% – the highest in a year for both.
When asked about the latest PPI numbers, Powell said they were “mixed.”
The latest data “has told us…we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work,” Powell said.
Powell said his outlook was for continued growth and ongoing job creation bolstered by immigration.
He said he expected the economy to grow about 2% this year, slightly above the Fed’s estimates of the economy’s underlying potential, with a labor market that remains “very, very strong.”
“If you look at a broad range of data … the labor market is about as tight as it was before the pandemic in 2019. And that’s good,” said Powell, with an unemployment rate below 4% for more than two years.
The low joblessness and rising wages seen in 2019 has been cited by Powell before as a touchstone for the Fed.
The prospect of a renewed decline in inflation without a marked economic slowing has all been given a boost, Powell said, by the arrival of immigrants who helped fill a surplus of open jobs and have added to the US economy as consumers.
“We’re still getting very substantial numbers of people coming into the country and going to work,” Powell said. “Immigration is also not a policy that the Fed works on or has opinions on, but I’m just giving you the straight economics of it. People come in … They are getting work permits and they go to work and they’re paying taxes and they’re creating economic output and there are millions of them.”
With Post Wires
