Welcome to the purest week of the NFL calendar.
Free-agent signings and draft picks come together with veteran holdovers — even most of the ones who skipped voluntary OTAs due to a contract dispute or some other obligation — to form the rosters that general managers and coaches envisioned assembling in their minds during the offseason.
There are 22 teams holding mandatory minicamps this week. Players who no-show for physicals or the two practices (totaling 3 ½ hours on the field per day) are subject to fines.
You still won’t see pads or live contact in 11-on-11 drills in minicamp, which means optimism will run high for the possibilities ahead. It’s like the “turn injuries off” function in the Madden video game.
To get into the NFL spirit six weeks before training camps begin, Sports+ divided the 32 teams into six different tiers:
Tier 1: Super Bowl or bust (2)
Chiefs, 49ers
When you have the NFL’s best quarterback, like Patrick Mahomes is for the Chiefs, it’s Super Bowl or bust.
When you have the NFL’s best top-to-bottom roster, like the 49ers do, it’s Super Bowl or bust.
If they both make it, it will be a rematch of last year and their third Super Bowl meeting in six seasons.
Tier 2: Best of the rest (6)
Ravens, Bengals, Texans, Jets, Eagles, Lions
If you are laughing at the Texans or Jets, you are stuck in 2022.
The Jets have eight players who could be First- or Second-Team All-Pros: quarterback Aaron Rodgers, running back Breece Hall, receiver Garrett Wilson, left tackle Tyron Smith, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, cornerback Sauce Gardner and linebackers Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley. Six already have been at one point.
The Lions and — to a lesser extent — Ravens should be sick about not reaching the Super Bowl when the opportunity was right there last season.
The Eagles were last season’s Super Bowl favorites before a late-season collapse. Their roster is improved now, but was keeping head coach Nick Sirianni the right move?
It’s an all-in season for the Bengals before free agency breaks up their offensive nucleus.
Who knows where the ceiling is for the Texans’ C.J. Stroud after the best rookie quarterback season of all time was rewarded with a trade for Stefon Diggs?
Tier 3: Playoffs games are nice, too (9)
Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Jaguars, Packers, Cowboys, Bears, Rams, Falcons
Six of these teams — the Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Packers, Cowboys and Rams — were part of the playoffs last season. Any of the nine could make a deep playoff run if its roster is healthier than an opponent’s in January or if the schematic matchups break just right.
Anything less than the playoffs will be a disaster for the Bills or Cowboys. A long-awaited return to the postseason should be in the cards for the Bears and Falcons after big offseason splashes.
This group has three quarterbacks who could be free agents next offseason (the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and the Packers’ Jordan Love) and a couple of the quarterbacks under the most pressure in the NFL (the Browns’ Deshaun Watson and the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins).
The Falcons have the clearest path to a home playoff game because the NFC South remains winnable at 9-8.
Tier 4: Meaningful games in December (6)
Chargers, Steelers, Colts, Vikings, Buccaneers, Seahawks
Some owners define a successful season this way. In other words, remaining in the playoff hunt until the very end.
It’s a thin line between the third and fourth tiers — swapping one or two playoff teams is debatable. Maybe the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh or Steelers’ Mike Tomlin — two of the NFL’s five-best head coaches — make the difference in a win or two that slightly alters the landscape.
The theme of this group is high-end stars — whether Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, Steelers pass-rusher T.J. Watt, Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. or some other Pro Bowler — on incomplete rosters.
Tier 5: No man’s land (4)
Broncos, Raiders, Cardinals, Saints
One of the worst places to be in the NFL is caught between not being good enough to be a playoff contender and not being bad enough to draft near the top.
Who is in a better situation quarterback-wise: the Cardinals (Kyler Murray) and Saints (Derek Carr) with high-paid veterans who never have won much, or the Broncos (Bo Nix vs. Zach Wilson vs. Jarrett Stidham) and Raiders (Gardner Minshew vs. Aidan O’Connell) with less-than-appealing options for a training-camp competition?
The first head coach fired in 2024 could be from this group — and it probably won’t be power-hungry Super Bowl-winner Sean Payton in Denver.
Tier 6: Fighting for the No. 1 draft pick (5)
Patriots, Titans, Giants, Panthers, Commanders
Arguably the five worst rosters in the league.
All but the Giants have a first-year head coach. All but the Giants and Titans have a first-year, first-time top executive.
All but the Giants have rookie or second-year starting quarterbacks.
Time is ticking on Brian Daboll, Joe Schoen and Daniel Jones.
The Patriots play in the most difficult division of this group and thus have the inside track to the No. 1 pick. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick no more.
Today’s back page
Hurley’s home
College sports got the major victory it needed Monday courtesy of proven winner Dan Hurley.
If Hurley decided to leave the two-time defending national champion UConn men’s basketball team to become head coach of the Lakers, it would have been the latest indictment on the unruly transfer portal and NIL payments in college sports. While the new NCAA model has given some power to the athlete whose performance generates revenue for the school, it has created roster-building headaches that many coaches don’t want to handle.
The easiest solutions are to either jump to the pros — like Boston College football head coach Jeff Hafley did when he resigned to become the Packers defensive coordinator — or to go coach with fewer responsibilities as an assistant at a program that prints money — like UCLA football head coach Chip Kelly did when he resigned to become Ohio State’s offensive coordinator.
Hurley reportedly left $20 million on the table by turning down the Lakers’ six-year, $70 million offer to consider UConn’s extension offer.
UConn can thank Hurley for his loyalty.
And UConn can thank its big-pocketed donors for allowing Hurley to be on the receiving end of transfers looking for a big payday. It is much easier for Hurley to fend off roster poachers than it is for most of his Big East rivals (see: Kadary Richmond’s transfer from Seton Hall to St. John’s).
But UConn also should thank the Lakers.
Crazy as it sounds to most of us, is $70 million over six years really a “godfather” offer in today’s NBA?
Monty Williams, who was fired by the Suns after achieving a .628 regular-season winning percentage and one losing trip to the NBA Finals over four years, signed a six-year, $78.5 million contract to coach the Pistons. He went 14-68 in his first season at the helm.
Mike Brown, who has been fired as an NBA head coach three times, just signed a $10 million-per-year extension to lead the Kings after not advancing out of the play-in tournament last season.
If the Lakers really were all-in on Hurley to revive the franchise in the final years of LeBron James’ career, why not make him say no to six years, $90 million? Or $100 million?
Instead, Hurley’s decision is good for strengthening college sports, particularly the value of the Big East.
It’s just not good for anyone trying to stop UConn from a three-peat.
Yankees trade bait?
Spencer Jones, the No. 2-ranked prospect in the Yankees’ farm system, has found his stroke at an interesting time on the MLB calendar.
After a slow start to the season at Double-A Somerset, the 6-foot-6 center fielder has homered in three of his past four games, including the game-tying solo shot Sunday during Gerrit Cole’s second rehab start.
Jones, 23, is hitting .315 with four home runs, 13 RBIs and 10 runs scored over his past eight games, batting mostly out of the leadoff spot. He has hit safely in eight of the past nine games and reached base safely in 21 of 22 games since May 16.
Two hours after Sunday’s game ended in a win, Jones was taking more swings in the batting cage.
It’s quite a statement … for 31 other teams who might make good partners at the MLB trade deadline.
The Yankees, who improved to 47-21 with Monday night’s 4-2 win over the Royals, rank second in the majors in runs scored mostly because of the offense generated by an outfield of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo. Add in designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton — an outfielder by trade — and you have four of the five most reliable hitters in the lineup.
The crowded outfield — with veteran Gold Glove winner and Sunday’s clutch home-run hitter Trent Grisham in a seldom-used bench role — is such that No. 1 prospect Jasson Dominguez can’t make it back to the big leagues despite hitting .333 with four home runs, 10 RBIs and 10 runs scored over 14 combined games of a rehab assignment at Double-A and Triple-A.
So, yes, Jones’ path to the majors is firmly blocked for now.
Would the Yankees want to hold onto Jones in case that changes in the offseason and Soto and Verdugo depart in free agency?
That seems like a mistake given the expectation the Yankees will do everything possible to re-sign Soto for a future outfield of Soto, Judge and Dominguez, with Stanton still taking DH at-bats.
The win-now move for the Yankees would be to use a prized prospect in Jones in a trade that solidifies the lineup by upgrading the production at first base (Anthony Rizzo), second base (Gleyber Torres) or third base (Oswaldo Cabrera/DJ LeMahieu). For now, notoriously loyal manager Aaron Boone is going to keep trotting out the same faces and trusting the “back of the baseball card” averages to show up.
If the lineup still is too top-heavy come late July, however, the Yankees have a sizzling surplus who might be able to bring back an infielder as the missing championship piece.
Don’t bet on stricter gambling rules
You don’t have to be an all-time great player such as Baseball Hall of Fame omissions “Shoeless” Joe Jackson and Pete Rose to potentially ruin the integrity of sports.
Jontay Porter averaged 3.7 points over 37 career games before he was suspended for life by the NBA in April. Less than two months later, Tucupita Marcano, a .217 hitter in 149 career games, received the same penalty from MLB.
Both pro athletes placed bets on games involving their own teams — just like NFL player Josh Shaw did in 2019, not long after the legalization of sports gambling.
Shaw (one interception in 55 career games) was suspended indefinitely — instead of banned for life — after betting against his Arizona Cardinals in a parlay. He never returned to the league even after he was reinstated.
So, what’s with the rash of low-profile players risking their high-earning playing careers by defying the gambling policy education that all major North American-based sports leagues provide?
“[One] possibility could be that lower-profile players may mistakenly believe that they are less well-known, so have a greater chance to fly under the radar with sportsbooks,” Steve Paine, co-founder of the Evolve Sports Integrity advisory firm, told The Post. “The reality is that most regulated sportsbooks will have strict regulatory obligations to monitor for betting integrity concerns, and will use sophisticated anti-fraud technology to monitor for related concerns.”
Leagues, governing bodies, sportsbooks and policymakers all lose when fans start to question the integrity of games, Paine said.
“Whilst a distinction can undoubtedly be made in terms of athletes placing bets, in general, on their own sport versus bets on games they are directly involved in — and can therefore potentially influence the outcome or have insider information — the reality is that the general sports fan won’t make that distinction,” Paine said.
“Betting and match-fixing often get thrown into the same bucket, and that brings a huge reputational risk and is therefore why sports and other stakeholders have no option but to properly educate their people, put the necessary safeguards in place and tackle these risks head-on.”
The string of gambling suspensions over the past year — and the cloud cast over Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani by his translator’s gambling debts and alleged theft — have made it feel like a tipping point is near where all leagues need to consider completely banning all personnel from any form of sports gambling.
Not so, said Paine.
“The reality is the legalized sports betting ecosystem is in its infancy in the U.S.,” he said. “Many other countries have faced similar challenges over the years and have adopted a whole range of different approaches to manage the different risks that face sports and betting operators. Whilst there are common threats, there is rarely a one-size-fits-all solution.”
What we’re reading 👀
⚾ The schedule offers the Mets a genuine chance to revive their season, writes The Post’s Mike Vaccaro. It only helps that Francisco Alvarez and Edwin Diaz are on the way as reinforcements.
🏀 The Thunder are perceived as the top threat to lure Isaiah Hartenstein away from the Knicks in free agency, The Post’s Stefan Bondy reports.
🏀 There’s a simple reason why Caitlin Clark didn’t make Team USA for the Olympics, argues The Post’s Jonathan Lehman: The players ahead of her are better.
⛳ It’s U.S. Open week, and the defending champion has been overlooked because of his recent struggles.
