In 2021, any time Mat Barzal was asked about the risks of participating in the Beijing Olympics that coming winter, he said it was worth it to represent Team Canada.
The decision, eventually, was taken out of Barzal’s hands. The NHL pulled out of the competition over concerns related to the pandemic and how China, the host nation, would handle potential positive COVID cases.
That delayed the league’s long-awaited return to international best-on-best hockey for three years, but finally, it’s back on the calendar.
The NHL released a schedule last week for February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, featuring the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland, to be played in Montreal and Boston in place of the All-Star Game.
The tournament is expected to be a precursor to the NHL’s participation in the 2026 Milan Olympics, which would be the first since 2014 in Sochi.
The Islanders should be well-represented at the tournament with four players who figure to be in the mix for their respective rosters.
Here’s a look at their chances of making their national teams as things stand today.
Mat Barzal, Canada
A year ago, you could have justifiably wondered whether Barzal was still a lock to be on an eventual Team Canada after coming off an injury, moving to the wing and having another Islanders season in which he didn’t quite produce at the level his talent suggests he should.
Right now, though, all those concerns have been put to rest.
Barzal stayed healthy this season, successfully executed the switch to wing — which is a pretty big plus for a making a Canada roster that will likely feature Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby as its top three centermen — and had his best season since his Calder Trophy-winning rookie campaign.
With the number of natural centers in contention for that fourth spot — Connor Bedard, Sam Reinhart, Brayden Point, Robert Thomas and Bo Horvat among them — it’s hard to see Barzal playing down the middle in February.
But he’s proven that’s not a problem, and the idea of him being on the wing for any of the aforementioned players should be more than enough to get him on the team.
Noah Dobson, Canada
Like Barzal, the timing of this return to international best-on-best hockey is a boon to Dobson’s chances of making the team after he put together a breakout season.
Among Canadian defensemen, Dobson was third in points and fifth in average time on ice last season. His superb on/off numbers on a team that struggled at five-on-five for much of the season are also a major point in his favor.
Given that Cale Makar and Evan Bouchard are in the Canadian pool, it’s hard to see Dobson being one of the first six names announced for the roster later this month, and it doesn’t help that both those players also play on the right side.
If there’s a reason for Dobson to be nervous, it’s that Canada might want to include someone such as Kris Letang or Drew Doughty as its third righty defenseman, given their veteran experience.
Still, as things stand today, it would be very hard to justify leaving Dobson out of the lineup entirely, even if it means playing on his off side. There’s enough great options that throwing around the word “lock” at this stage is a precarious exercise. But unless something changes once this season gets going, Dobson should be on the team.
Bo Horvat, Canada
We’re getting into roster-bubble territory now. As mentioned, the player pool for Canada at center is very deep. Barring injury, McDavid, MacKinnon and Crosby are locks. And a Team Canada without Bedard is hard to conceive — the better question is whether or not Jon Cooper trusts him at center after Bedard won less than 40 percent of his faceoffs and showed some defensive holes this past season.
Horvat’s acumen in those areas figures to be a plus if it’s a question of where to play him. But that’s not what we’re trying to parse here.
There hasn’t been a date announced for when the roster selection will be, but Horvat’s inclusion figures to come down to how his season is going when that date arrives.
If he replicates the first half of his 2022-23 season, when he scored at a 50-goal pace with the Canucks, he should make the team. But Canada’s forwards group is strong enough that replicating the season Horvat had in 2023-24 — 33 goals, 35 assists, 68 points, which ranked 19th among Canadian-born forwards — probably wouldn’t be good enough, especially with names such as Bedard, Wyatt Johnston and Alexis Lafreniere, who scored fewer points, likely to merit consideration.
Throw that in the mix and it’s not solely a question of Horvat’s season that will earn him a spot, but also whether Cooper and Don Sweeney, Canada’s GM for the 4 Nations, want to include a group of younger players on the roster who can start to build chemistry ahead of the Olympics.
Brock Nelson, USA
In typical fashion, Nelson has been absent from a lot of the public discussion around Team USA for reasons that seem to amount to, uh, well, there doesn’t seem to be a good reason.
The trope around Nelson being underrated is one of the most tired narratives around the Islanders, but when the shoe fits…
That’s not to say Nelson should be a lock for the team. But he should be very much a part of the conversation.
Auston Matthews, J.T. Miller and Jack Hughes are likely unimpeachable as the top three American centers as things stand. But Nelson should be firmly planted in a group that also includes Vincent Trocheck, Dylan Larkin, Jack Eichel and Tage Thompson to compete for either the fourth center spot or a move to the wing — something Nelson has occasionally done with the Islanders.
It’s also noteworthy that Nelson was one of a few 4 Nations hopefuls to play in this summer’s World Championships in Czechia, scoring seven points in eight games while wearing a letter for a squad that lost to the host nation in the quarterfinals.
Nelson’s family is also packed with Team USA connections: He had an uncle on the 1980 Olympic squad, a grandfather and great uncle on the 1960 gold-medal-winning Olympic team and another great-uncle on the 1956 Olympic team.
He also happened to score 34 goals last season, more than any American-born center other than Matthews and Miller. Who knows whether Nelson keeps up the scoring pace next season, when he will turn 33 in October, but if he does, it would be crazy for him not to be in the mix.
Nurmi news
Correcting the record on Islanders prospect Jesse Nurmi, who signed a three-year entry-level deal earlier this week: It is not set in stone he will play in North America next season, contrary to some social media chatter.
According to an industry source, Nurmi will most likely stay in Europe for another season unless he makes the Islanders out of camp. It is highly doubtful he will start the 2024-25 season in AHL Bridgeport.
The 19-year-old Nurmi, the Islanders’ fourth-round pick last year, missed significant time last season after suffering an injury that required surgery, ultimately playing 19 games with KooKoo in the Finnish Liiga without scoring a goal.
Dobson’s HockeyFest
Dobson is holding a street hockey tournament in his hometown of Summerside, Prince Edward Island, on June 22-23 to support Community Connections Inc, a local non-profit that gives opportunities and services to adults with intellectual disabilities.
The event also includes a silent auction with signed memorabilia.
