Nearly 185 million voters in 27 European countries voted last weekend to elect representatives not to their own, national governments but to the European Parliament – the legislative arm of the European Union (EU).
The outcome was dramatic: a decided turn to the right, especially in the bloc’s two biggest member states, France and Germany.
The shift will have consequences for a range of European issues, most significantly the green transition, now likely to be much slower.
But it also has important repercussions for the US, underscoring the need for American global leadership on Ukraine and Russia.
You need a scorecard to track exactly what happened last week as six “groups” – we’d call them parties – competed in 27 national races.
Results are still provisional – it’s a far-flung continent.
But the center-right European People’s Party, which held the biggest block of the parliament’s 720 seats before the election, remained in pole position with 189 seats.
The leftist Socialists and Democrats held onto the number-two spot, albeit slipping by a few votes to 135 seats.
The biggest losers were the Greens and the liberal Renew coalition led by French President Emmanuel Macron, who is committed to reinvigorating Europe and making it less dependent on the US.
The biggest winners were two conservative parties, one led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the other by likely future French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, one of Europe’s strongest advocates of restricting immigration.
President Joe Biden minimized the new turn in Europe.
“We’re going to continue to work with the EU,” he said, “and we look forward to continuing our great relationship with [European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen.”
Just what the vote means for Ukraine remains unclear.
The rightwing groups vary widely in their views of Russia and whether or not Europe should continue to stand with Kyiv.
Meloni and her followers have strongly supported the Ukraine war effort; Le Pen’s coalition is skeptical if not opposed.
But unlike in the US, European public opinion about Ukraine generally has little to do with traditional left-right ideology.
It’s rooted mostly in national circumstances, including history and geography.
European attitudes toward the war have changed little in the past 18 months.
Opinion varies widely from country to country – 57% of Swedes but only 28% of Italians think the West should back Kyiv until Russia is expelled from Ukrainian territory.
As in the US, political elites tend to be more supportive of Kyiv and more worried about an expansionist Russia.
Very few national parties made the war a campaign issue.
It hardly figured in France or Germany, where the conservatives won biggest.
And among those who tried to exploit voter fatigue with the conflict, Hungary’s pro-Russian prime minister Viktor Orban suffered one of the most humiliating setbacks of the weekend.
Where the election could make a difference for Ukraine: If it compromises the European leaders who have been staunchest in their support – the Greens, Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, who could be severely weakened or lose their jobs in the political jockeying to come.
As in the US, where the November election could make all the difference for Kyiv, strong European political leadership is essential to sustaining the fight.
None of this would have mattered nearly as much two years ago.
In the first months of the war, the US led the world to defend democracy and resist aggression on Europe’s flank.
We supplied the arms and intelligence that helped Kyiv survive the first Russian onslaughts.
Biden called on Europe to stand with us defending Western values and the sanctity of international borders.
Washington provided the lion’s share of Western military aid through the end of 2022.
But then in 2023, the balance began to shift, with US support flagging and Europe rallying to take our place.
By April 2024, Europe had disbursed $110 billion for military, humanitarian and financial aid and committed another $83 billion, promised but still unspent.
The US had disbursed $80 billion and committed an additional $27 billion.
Today, Europe is leaning forward, with Macron and others, most vocally in Poland and the Baltic states, arguing for tougher pro-Kyiv measures – sending the most advanced Western weaponry, using Western weapons to strike Russian territory and dispatching Western military to train Ukrainian fighters.
Biden continues to sound supportive and promise future help, including a new commitment to provide military aid for 10 years.
But while he is committed to helping Ukraine stop the Russian advance, he often seems hesitant about actually winning the war – and many Americans, across the political spectrum, argue for walking away.
What will happen if the EU elections erode Europe’s determination to defend itself and resist authoritarian aggression?
Could the seesaw tilt again, with the US stepping up as Europe falls back?
What the US needs now is someone like Ronald Reagan or the great internationalist Democrats from Franklin Delano Roosevelt through John F. Kennedy.
These presidents rallied the US to lead the world when our allies slipped — when it took a global crisis to rouse Americans to action. Could that happen again now? We can only hope we won’t be tested.
Tamar Jacoby is the director of the New Ukraine Project at the Progressive Policy Institute.
