LAS VEGAS — This is expected to be a different kind of offseason for the Islanders.
The notion that they could hang onto this core and keep everything the same appeared to hit a breaking point last season, first with head coach Lane Lambert’s firing in January, then with the first-round loss to the Hurricanes that ended their season without winning a playoff round for the third straight year.
Instead of the same old notes about belief in the group, general manager Lou Lamoriello said on breakup day that nothing was off the table and nothing would be treated as sacred, marking a notable shift in tone.
Some seven weeks later, though, and it’s still not entirely clear what direction the Islanders’ offseason will take.
There is not a clear and obvious pathway for Lamoriello with the Islanders holding a number of long-term contracts, a relative lack of salary-cap space and a farm system that ranks toward the bottom of the league.
And, because this is the most leak-proof team in the NHL we’re talking about, good luck deciphering which way they’re going until it actually happens.
Still, it appears there are three distinct paths the Isles could take this summer.
Here’s a look at each of them.
Path 1: Change the second act, but not the headliners
If you had to bet based on both Lamoriello’s breakup-day comments and his recent history of strong belief in the roster, this would be where you would land.
Here, the door is open to making moves, but the goal is still to win this season.
Under this philosophy, the Islanders likely would change up their bottom six by letting Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck walk as free agents and perhaps would try to make another move. Exactly where, though, isn’t 100 percent clear, and the Islanders wouldn’t have interest in forcing something.
The Islanders would take calls on Jean-Gabriel Pageau, but likely wouldn’t attach an asset to move his salary, which might be necessary, considering the Red Wings had to add a second-round pick to trade Jake Walman on Tuesday. Whether they would move Pageau in the end would depend on the details and whether the Islanders could make use of the extra cap room.
In this week’s draft, the Islanders would be open to trading one of their picks in the first two rounds, maybe two of them (the Islanders have a first-round pick and two seconds after dealing with the Blackhawks to move down). The focus would be improving the roster as much as possible. The path to getting a marquee free agent or making a blockbuster deal appears narrow at the moment, but if it opens, the Islanders would be ready to jump.
As for the likes of Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, who are on expiring contracts, the Islanders would stand pat for now and hope to be competitive enough that short-term extensions become an obvious path forward during the season.
On defense, the Islanders would look into bringing back Mike Reilly on a one-year deal, but if there’s a way to add in free agency, that would be preferred. Samuel Bolduc stays in limbo for another season as the team’s seventh defenseman, but the Islanders would take calls from interested suitors.
Path 2: A step back this season for a step forward next season
This would be the more conventional path for a team in the Islanders’ position to take.
Other than Mat Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov and Ilya Sorokin, there wouldn’t be a piece on the roster that would be considered untouchable.
At least two of Nelson, Palmieri and Pageau would be dealt for the best combination of draft picks and prospects the Islanders could get, even if it meant retaining a significant chunk of Pageau’s salary. Moving other core pieces would be unlikely due to no-trade clauses and contracts, but the Islanders would be open to it.
The goal this season would be twofold. First, rebuild a organizational depth chart that does not have much talent. That means making every draft pick they have and perhaps trying to acquire more.
It also would mean trying to get real NHL playing time this season for the likes of Isaiah George, Ruslan Iskhakov and Matt Maggio, with the hope that William Dufour and Calle Odelius would follow. Bolduc would start the year as a third-pair defenseman. Simon Holmstrom would start the season on the top line with Horvat and Barzal.
Second, it would be about clearing cap space ahead of what should be a free agency bonanza next summer. Want to sell Leon Draisaitl on how great it is to raise a family in Garden City? This is the time to dream.
Rebuild would be too strong a word for this path — the Islanders would try to stay competitive and the goal would be for this to be a one-year process. But let’s be real, they probably would not make the playoffs in this scenario. It would be a retool, and those things can spiral if they go wrong. If they can thread the needle successfully, though, the payoff would be massive.
Path 3: Stay the course as much as possible
This is admittedly similar to the first scenario we outlined. But with a few key differences.
The first scenario assumes the Islanders believe they can no longer contend with the roster they fielded last season. This assumes they believe the combination of Ilya Sorokin bouncing back and a full season of Patrick Roy could solve most, if not all, of their problems.
Here, they’re bringing back Reilly for at least another season — in fact, it’s a priority. Clutterbuck would get a one-year deal, as well, though perhaps Martin still would be allowed to walk. Signing Nelson and Palmieri to extensions becomes an offseason priority, perhaps for as long as three years. Pageau stays put.
Their prospects, unless one bangs the door down, mostly would be buried in the AHL or on the bench. It’s possible that someone such as George or Holmstrom would be on the trade block if the return is right.
The Islanders would make some changes here and there — just enough to credibly argue they didn’t simply bring the whole team back. Maybe they trade for someone at the draft, maybe they make a couple signings to bolster their lineup depth.
For all intents and purposes, though, this would be the same core hoping for a different result.
