Saturday’s two Euro 2024 quarterfinal matches couldn’t feel more different.
The noon Eastern kickoff features under-pressure and offensively challenged England taking on stoic, experienced Switzerland in a contest that projects to be stodgy and ruled by defense.
Three hours later, Turkey will take on the Netherlands in a battle between two sides that have no issue throwing caution to the wind and trading chances.
Let’s size ’em up and see what bets make the most sense:
England vs. Switzerland: (12 p.m. ET)
There is no team that has felt the heat at this tournament more than Gareth Southgate’s England.
Looking to end a 58-year trophy drought, the Three Lions came into Euro 2024 as the favorites and were expected to cruise into the latter stages of the tournament.
They’re one victory away from a semifinal, but it has been anything but convincing from the English.
The Three Lions scored just two goals and went 1-2-0 (W-D-L) in the group stage, but they were re-installed as the tournament favorites thanks to an unbelievably soft draw that saw them play Slovakia in the Round of 16.
But England made a mess of their encounter with Slovakia and needed a 95th-minute equalizer from Jude Bellingham to rescue its tournament.
England has played four matches against Serbia, Slovenia, Denmark and Slovakia and has scored just three goals in regulation while creating a total of just 3.7 expected goals.
England backers will point to their defensive numbers being elite through in the tournament, but you have to wonder if that’s because of the strength of schedule.
The Swiss aren’t world-beaters, but they will be the best attacking side England has faced to date by a decent margin.
The Swiss have scored seven goals in four matches and have created 5.3 expected goals.
What’s more is they put forth a terrific performance in a 1-1 draw against Germany in the group stage, showing they can punch up.
Switzerland’s defensive numbers are also quite solid, having allowed three goals on 4.3 expected goals. That’s not too far off of England.
The betting market is projecting this to be a tight, low-scoring affair and while it’s hard to argue with that logic, the prices correlated with that game script are starting to get out of hand.
This Switzerland attack has some bite to it and England has to find a way to create scoring chances, so don’t be surprised if it plays with a little more risk to its game.
The English are the more talented side in this matchup and should back themselves in a free-flowing contest.
Perhaps the best course of action is to zag while everyone else is zigging.
Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals in regulation (+145, DraftKings).
Turkey vs. Netherlands: (3 p.m. ET)
No team has caused more chaos than Turkey at Euro 2024.
While most underdogs opt to play a more conservative style of soccer in these tournaments, Turkey has played with reckless abandon and bet on its skilled players, such as Arda Guler, to be difference-makers.
Euro 2024 round of 16 football match between Austria and
Turkey at the Leipzig Stadium in Leipzig on July 2, 2024. AFP via Getty Images
The result so far has been three wins, seven goals for, six goals against and heaps of scoring chances through four matches.
This team knows its defense has some holes in it, so it tries to outscore those issues rather than protect the house. It’s brave.
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It took some time for the Netherlands to get to its best level in Germany, but it looks as if Clockwork Oranje has arrived.
The Dutch have scored seven goals and rank third in the field in creating big scoring chances.
They, too, have issues on defense. Don’t overthink this one and enjoy the show.
Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals in regulation (-145, DraftKings).
