Let’s do some time traveling, back to late July 2007.
Because it was vital in forming my thoughts about relief pitching at the trade deadline.
Going into the day of that year’s deadline, the Red Sox had the majors’ best record at 64-41. The Yankees not only trailed Boston by eight games in the AL East, they were third in the race for what back then was just one wild card, four games off the pace.
It was understood entering July 31 that the Rangers would be trading their closer, Eric Gagne, and either the Red Sox or Yankees would be landing him. The 2003 NL Cy Young winner with the Dodgers had missed most of the 2005 and 2006 seasons after needing elbow surgery. He was not pitching to the form he once had with Los Angeles when he converted an MLB-record 84 straight save chances. But he seemed to still be a very high-level reliever.
Gagne had a 2.16 ERA with a .192 batting average against in his revival with the Rangers, though his strikeouts were down considerably from his Dodgers days, when his fastball/changeup combo was overwhelming.
This coincided with a moment when George Steinbrenner’s health was deteriorating and Brian Cashman had amassed way more say-so on the direction of the organization, and the Yankees general manager was adamant about protecting the farm system. Had Cashman been willing to include Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy in a trade, the Yankees probably would have acquired Gagne. But Cashman was hedging on a prospect named Alan Horne, who the team’s minor league functionaries believed could grow into a mid-rotation starter.
The Red Sox refused to include Jacoby Ellsbury in their package, but did put in a well-regarded prospect named Engel Beltre plus Kason Gabbard and David Murphy. They also agreed to cover most of the games-finished bonuses to convince Gagne to waive his no-trade provision. It was understood that Gagne would not close for the Red Sox, who had Jonathan Papelbon, or the Yankees, who had Mariano Rivera.
It also was believed at that moment that whoever obtained Gagne was going to be in a dominant position. The Yankees had difficulty all year getting the ball to Rivera because Kyle Farnsworth, in particular, had been so untrustworthy. The Red Sox were doing fine with Hideki Okajima as the bridge to Papelbon.
So adding Gagne felt like putting a strength on top of a strength and valuably keeping him away from helping to solve the hated Yankees’ problem. That is certainly how I felt. And in not one of my finest moments, I actually said to a Yankees official something like, “Well, I guess you assured a championship to the Red Sox.” I wrote something similar that night.
Well, here is the reality: The Red Sox did win a championship, but Gagne did everything to undermine that. In 18 ⅔ regular-season innings, Gagne allowed 14 runs. He was reduced to mop-up duties in the postseason, where he had a 6.23 ERA in just five games and lost the only time he was put in a big spot —in the 11th inning of Game 2 of the ALCS against Cleveland.
The Yankees had the majors’ best record from the trade deadline until the end of the season and fixed their relief crew markedly by injecting the Joba Rules into their bullpen before midges helped end their 2007 campaign and Joe Torre’s managerial reign.
Forgive this detour, but that summer of ’07 was so powerful in informing me that there is nothing close in terms of volume of availability and volatility in performance like relievers at the deadline. Many are going to get traded. Few are going to really make a huge difference because of how fickle the 20-ish innings they will throw the rest of the year could be.
In many ways, if a team obtains a great-performing reliever, especially if that reliever lacks a track record of excellence, what is likely to follow is poor results to get the pitcher to his usual level. Conversely, you can make a case for acquiring relievers you really like who are not performing well at the moment, believing in the evaluation and that the best results are going to follow.
For example, the Yankees made a terrific in-season trade for Kerry Wood in 2010. He had a 6.30 ERA in 23 games with Cleveland and then a 0.69 ERA in 24 games with the Yankees. Clay Holmes almost falls into a different category. He had no track record of success with the Pirates (4.93 ERA in 2021, 5.57 for his career), but the Yankees saw underlying traits they thought they could capitalize upon.
So there is no perfect formula for figuring out how to pick a reliever at any time, much less for a two-month, high-stress period. It is my Gagne Rule because he absolutely seemed the perfect fit for the Red Sox on so many levels, yet nearly cost them a title.
Still, the Yankees and Mets already are among the teams inquiring about relievers and you can make a case that both need to add two. There is no perfect formula, but you should have priorities on how to obtain a reliever during the season. Here would be mine:
1. Low walk rates. Everyone wants a strikeout reliever in the postseason. And finding arms with swing-and-miss stuff is important, especially for the Yankees, who lack it in this year’s pen. But I don’t think there is anything more unnerving late in games, especially in the postseason, than free passes and negative counts. It just opens the door too much for multi-run innings.
Think about Jake Diekman. The league is hitting just .183 against him this season. His 25.6 strikeout percentage remains strong. But the walks are just too undermining — and the Mets bullpen has been hurt by too many walks overall.
The most obvious reliever moving this month is Tanner Scott. The Marlins closer is in his walk year on a non-contender with no designs to re-sign him. Last year, he basically cut his walk percentage in half to 7.8. But it is back above his career average this season at 14.9 (fifth-highest among relievers with 30 innings). But it is just 8 percent since May 15, covering his past 20 appearances (21 innings), a period in which he has a 0.86 ERA.
So who will the buyer be getting? Scott has terrific stuff, but his wildness looms.
2. High groundball rates. Anything to stay away from late-inning homers stands out.
So, for example, the Blue Jays are planning to sell but not to rebuild. They want to try to be good in 2025. Thus, they probably will be looking to move walk-year players, including a talented reliever such as Yimi Garcia if he shows he is healthy before the deadline.
But what of Chad Green? The Blue Jays have Green under team control for next season — but at $10.5 million. Could they feel they can get good prospects for the righty and redirect the money elsewhere?
I really like Green. He was viewed as a terrific teammate with the Yankees. And he is tough-minded. But he is susceptible to home runs — four in 23 innings this year and four in 27 ⅓ career innings in the playoffs.
3. Track record. Again, the volatility in relievers is great. Someone who has strong results this season without a past to suggest it is sustainable would scare me off. The Marlins, for example, might want to try to sell high-ish on Declan Cronin, who was waived twice in the offseason and is pitching to a 3.35 ERA and striking out a batter an inning. But there is nothing in his past to suggest that this will continue. So, a pro scouting group would really have to see metrics and/or stuff that projects this is real.
4. Postseason track record. Someone who has been there and handled the big moments well provides a bonus.
It is why when the Astros were struggling, I thought Ryan Pressly would be such a good acquisition if the team ever decided to sell (which it pretty clearly is not doing now). Pressly, who is in his walk year, is one of the best postseason relievers ever. He has a high-end track record. He is not a dominant groundball pitcher, but he generally keeps it out of the air and does not surrender homers. And he has been pitching better as this season progresses.
That is also why I like Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson if the Diamondbacks decide to be sellers. Ginkel was brilliant in the postseason last year, and Thompson has a strong track record dating to his time with the Rays. Thompson is an extreme groundball pitcher. A fringe benefit: Both can’t be free agents until after the 2026 season.
The Yankees have Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson who are set to become free agents after this season. The Mets have Diekman, Adam Ottavino and Drew Smith as free agents. They would love to add controllable players just in case they are not actually contenders this year, so they would not be trading for players who can’t also help in the future.
It is all so sensitive at this time of year about who is and isn’t a contender. Like the Mets, the defending NL champion Diamondbacks were hovering on the outside looking in for the third wild-card spot. If Arizona deems itself out of the race, it would definitely trade closer Paul Sewald in his walk year. But would the Diamondbacks consider moving Ginkel or Thompson?
I want to highlight five teams I think could become very interesting as far as having reliever(s) to trade:
1. Giants. They are just behind the Diamondbacks and Mets in the wild-card race. They don’t want to give up. But they do not necessarily have to surrender to consider trading a reliever because they have some interesting depth.
The Giants are the No. 1 groundball bullpen in the majors. Closer Camilio Doval, Tyler Rogers, Sam Hjelle and Erik Miller are big-time groundball relievers. Rogers, Hjelle and Ryan Walker are high-end at limiting walks, and Hjelle and Ryan Walker have strong strikeout rates, as does Doval. All of them are under future control.
Taylor Rogers, Tyler’s lefty twin brother, is having a good season, has a track record that includes closing and is good across the board in strikeouts, walks and grounders, But he is due $12 million next season.
Even if San Francisco considers itself in the race, could the Giants trade from pen depth to address areas of need?
2. Reds. Cincinnati is slowly losing contact with the wild-card chase. The Reds have three lefties — Sam Moll, Brett Suter and Justin Wilson — who each limit walks; Wilson and Moll do it with strong strikeout rates. Suter and Wilson are free agents at the conclusion of the season. Moll just becomes arbitration-eligible. None would bring a sizable return.
Then there’s Fernando Cruz, who turns 33 in September and walks an uncomfortable 13.1 percent of hitters, which contributes to his 4.46 ERA. But he uses his splitter, in particular, to strike out 38.8 percent of hitters.
Cincinnati signed Nick Martinez to try to start, which he did not do well (7.36 ERA, .348 batting average in five starts). But out of the bullpen — often performing in multiple innings — the righty has a 2.20 ERA and .188 batting average against in 41 innings of curtailing walks and long balls. But he has a $12 million player option for next season, making him tricky to deal because he likely would only pick it up if he pitches poorly the rest of the way.
3. Rays: Look out for the Rays offering pitchers. The Rays are on the periphery of the race and already traded a starter, Aaron Civale, to the Brewers. As Jeffrey Springs and eventually Drew Rasmussen return to the rotation, don’t be surprised if Tampa Bay trades another starter — perhaps someone such as Zach Littell — even if it considers itself still viable as a playoff contender.
The common way of thinking cannot be applied to this organization. If the Rays believe they are in the race, they would not strip their bullpen. But they also would consider moving just about anybody at any time, notably because of the internal belief that they know how to improve pitching performance and find replacement arms.
Kevin Kelly, in his second season, has shown a propensity to limit walks and induce grounders. Phil Maton falls into the category of a veteran with a track record having a down year. Would interested teams think his best 2024 pitching is ahead of him?
Closer Peter Fairbanks offers closer and postseason experience with above-average strikeout and groundball rates, plus a good contract: $3.7 million next year and a $7 million 2025 option or a $1 million buyout.
Jason Adam has some closing history and a 2.13 ERA since joining the Rays in 2022. Garrett Cleavinger is a lefty who walks too many, but also strikes out a lot.
4. Nationals: Washington is starting to assemble a young, interesting club with its position players and starters moving forward. How much does it want to use its current bullpen to add more?
The well-traveled Dylan Floro would be certain to be dealt in his walk year, and carries the ability to limit walks and induce grounders. Perhaps fellow righty journeyman Derek Law also goes. But neither would fetch a big return.
This comes down to whether the Nationals are willing to move closer Kyle Finnegan and setup man Hunter Harvey, both of whom can be free agents after next season. Harvey’s injury history is worrisome, as is the question about why someone who throws that hard gets squared up as often as he does. But Harvey has a high-end repertoire.
In his five seasons (think: track record), Finnegan has never registered an ERA-plus under 113.
5. Tigers: Lefty Andrew Chafin and righty Shelby Miller each have options unlikely to be picked up for next season, so the veterans would seem primed to be moved. This is nothing new for Chafin, who has been traded at the deadline in three of the past four years. His 28.4 percent strikeout rate and ability to really neutralize lefty hitters suggests he will be moved again.
Miller had a 1.71 ERA last season for the Dodgers and a 5.76 mark so far for the Tigers. But I wonder if he is a case for picking someone based on track record given that his stuff is fairly the same — he has drastically cut his walk rate from last year while striking people out at roughly the same pace. He has been killed by bad home run results. Does a buyer believe that is luck and/or is fixable?
But how far would the Tigers go? They are desperate to add bats just about anywhere. I played with the idea of a trade like Brett Baty for Jason Foley and Will Vest. I don’t think the Mets would consider it because while Baty has not shaken a groundball propensity when in the majors, he has continued to hit well at Triple-A, has begun to dabble with playing second base and I think the organization has not given up faith that Baty will hit in the majors.
Foley and Vest have track records of success, strong groundball and walk rates and lots of team control. Yet they are relievers and I think the Mets would be fearful of seeing the upside of Baty’s profile play elsewhere if what they got in return was relief help.
But if the Tigers actually put Foley on the block, I wonder if they could find a bat for 2025 in exchange.
Stat that caught my eye
Diekman and Adam Ottavino were on the verge of becoming the 122nd and 123rd players in MLB history to record 700 outings. Diekman was at 699 through Monday, Ottavino at 698.
They rank sixth and seventh, respectively, among those who have pitched this season, trailing Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel, Bryan Shaw and Aroldis Chapman (Shaw was released after five appearances in April with the White Sox and has been pitching at Triple-A for the Angels).
Diekman’s 18.2 percent walk rate this season has raised his career walk percentage to 13.5, which would be the highest in the 700-appearance club. If you drop it to the 242 pitchers who appeared in at least 600 games, only Mitch Williams — nicknamed “Wild Thing” — would be higher than Diekman at 17.4 percent.
Whose career do you got?
Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez was named an AL All-Star starter, his sixth selection to the Midsummer Classic. Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor was snubbed, a borderline candidate whose name was not announced among the reserves on Sunday. That keeps him at four All-Star games.
It is a subtle separation for two players who once played close to one another in the Cleveland infield and have similar careers as well.
Ramirez had cups of coffee with Cleveland in 2013 and 2014, but did not begin playing regularly until 2015, when Lindor finished second for AL Rookie of the Year. It was not until the following year that Ramirez became the regular third baseman next to Lindor at shortstop as the two became the best position players on a team that reached Game 7 of the World Series.
Lindor was traded to the Mets after the 2020 campaign, and signed a 10-year, $341 million extension. Ramirez has clearly shown a hunger to stay in Cleveland, signing undervalued contacts, including the seven-year, $141 million extension under which he is currently operating through 2028.
At any price point, these two switch-hitters, born 14 months apart (Ramirez, 31, is older), have careers that twin up in so many areas. Consider:
Lindor has played 1,312 career games, Ramirez 1,379. Lindor has 45.7 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference), Ramirez 48.5. Lindor has 1,413 hits, Ramirez 1,420. Lindor has 230 homers, Ramirez 239. Lindor has 172 steals, Ramirez 218.
In this game, I would rather have Lindor’s paycheck, but Ramirez’s career. His highs have been better. Ramirez is on kind of a stealth Hall of Fame path. Lindor has finished fifth, sixth, ninth three times and 15th in MVP voting. Ramirez has a second, two thirds, a sixth, a 10th and a 17th.
Both are in play to be strongly considered on the 10-player ballot, though Ramirez is mounting a case to gain more votes.
His career 129 OPS-plus is ahead of the mark put up by Lindor (118), who builds so much value by his shortstop excellence (two Gold Gloves). Ramirez, though, has been a strong fielder throughout his career despite not winning a Gold Glove.
It is close. But at this moment, the coin flip goes to Ramirez.
Last licks
Twice this year, the Yankees faced a deadline with catchers and traded them away, and in both of those cases, the catchers are performing.
In spring training, the Yankees committed to Austin Wells, who made the team in tandem with Jose Trevino. The decision has seen the Yankees rank sixth in catching Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs).
Ben Rortvedt was out of options, and the Yankees did not want to carry three catchers. They knew that Rortvedt would not get through waivers to be stashed at Triple-A, so they completed a three-team deal in which Rortvedt went to the Rays and the Yankees received Jon Berti from the Marlins.
Well-regarded for his defensive prowess, Rortvedt had never shown an inclination to hit — until joining Tampa Bay. The Rays have struggled for offense nearly everywhere. But Rortvedt is hitting .276 with a 113 OPS-plus. Combine that with his familiar defensive excellence and he is tied for fourth in WAR among catchers with at least 150 plate appearances. Trevino is 11th and Wells is 24th.
The Yankees also signed Luis Torrens to a minor league deal. He was performing well at Triple-A, but Torrens had the right to opt out of his contract on June 15 if he was not promoted to the majors. So before that date arrived, the Yankees traded him for $100,000 to the Mets, who were struggling through the IL stint of Francisco Alvarez and finally released Omar Narvaez.
Torrens has had an instant impact on both sides of the ball, including hitting .283 with an .870 OPS.
When Alvarez returned, the Mets picked Torrens to pair with him rather than Tomas Nido. That was June 11. Obviously, a great deal of this is Alvarez, but since that date, the Mets had the fourth-best catching WAR in the majors.
