We are into championship weekend at Wimbledon and, according to the odds, it looks like we are on a collision course for a rematch of last year’s classic final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Is it as simple as that? Or will either of the underdogs, Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Musetti, be able to cause an upset?
Carlos Alcaraz (-330) vs. Daniil Medvedev (+260)
Getting back to the Wimbledon semifinals for a second year in a row is an impressive feat for defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, but the path to this point has been a lot bumpier than his nearly flawless run in 2023.
Alcaraz was untouchable on the grass a year ago, winning all 12 matches he played on the surface, culminating with a five-set thriller over Djokovic in the final.
Even more stunning was that Alcaraz dropped just five sets in those dozen matches.
It would be nearly impossible to replicate that form, but Alcaraz’s journey to the final four has been bumpier than anybody expected.
The Spaniard started the grass swing with an early exit at Queen’s Club and he’s had a couple of hairy moments at the Championships.
Alcaraz cruised through the first two rounds, but he needed to come back in a five-set thriller against an out-of-form Frances Tiafoe and then was not all that convincing against Tommy Paul in a four-set victory.
If Paul had even his B-game, we’d probably be talking about him in this spot instead.
Winning without your best stuff is the mark of a champion, but Alcaraz will need to find his level if he’s to make it to back-to-back finals because Daniil Medvedev seems like a man on a mission.
Bewilderingly, Medvedev came into the tournament as a 60/1 outsider to win Wimbledon despite the fact that he made it to one final at a Grand Slam already in 2024 and was a semifinalist here in 2023.
Medvedev’s draw was tough and he didn’t set the world alight during the clay swing, but it was pretty shocking to see him flying that far under the radar before the fortnight began.
What was even more confusing was that Medvedev’s outright price remained close to 40/1 even after he advanced into the fourth round.
It’s clear that the betting market severely underestimated Medvedev going into the tournament and it’s fair to wonder if oddsmakers are continuing to do so given his price against Alcaraz.
The defending champion absolutely deserves to be the favorite on Friday, but Medvedev was brilliant in a five-set victory over world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals and we haven’t really seen Alcaraz at his best yet.
The Bet: Daniil Medvedev (+260, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Novak Djokovic (-690) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+480)
It is not entirely true to say that it is surprising to see Djokovic in the Wimbledon semifinals this year, but there were certainly a lot more people who doubted that the 37-year-old Serb could pull it off this time around the block considering his form and the fact that he’s one month removed from knee surgery.
But, as he’s wont to do, Djokovic has silenced the skeptics with another deep run.
And he also caught a big break when Alex de Minaur had to pull out of their quarterfinal clash with an injury.
Djokovic will have had three full days to rest after his quick, painless victory over Holger Rune on Monday.
Known for his clay-court ability, Lorenzo Musetti is certainly a surprising semifinalist, but he’s had a relatively easy path with a woeful Taylor Fritz as his only true test so far.
A fresh Djokovic should be able to overwhelm the Italian, especially after defeating him at Roland Garros in June.
The Bet: Djokovic -2.5 sets (+110, DraftKings)