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UFC Denver predictions: Full prelim and main card picks for Fight Night

By
Erich Richter
Published July 13, 2024, 9:00 a.m. ET
Rose Namajunas badly needs a victory.
Rose Namajunas badly needs a victory. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

After a week off from the cages, the UFC returns for a fight night in Denver on Saturday.

It’s more primetime treatment for the UFC, as the card begins at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday with the prelims, and the entire card is on ESPN.

The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET.

There are 12 fights on tap and solid fights throughout.

At UFC 303, we missed the main event, foolishly betting on Jiri Prochazka against the seemingly magical Alex Pereira.

However, that lost bet wasn’t indicative of the night we had, having won 3.2 units on the night, and we are up to 17.81 units of profit in our last three UFC prediction pieces.

Remember, tonight’s fights are at elevation; fighters may have some big cardio problems as the fights progress.

UFC Denver predictions

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez

“Thug” Rose Namajunas fights in the main event opposite Tracy Cortez in what would probably be an intriguing main event, although it admittedly could be a snore-fest.

Namajunas has been the beneficiary of some of the UFCs best and worst moments but she can’t get stuck in that world anymore.

She is one bad performance away from four losses in her last five, three of which by decision.

This fight is widely expected to go to a decision at -210 odds.

We’ve talked constantly about the declining finish rates with the new UFC gloves, sure enough there’s been a correction in the odds despite TKOs coming on all five UFC 303 main card fights.

Seven straight fights for Cortez have gone the distance while four of Namajunas’ last five have also gone the distance.

It’s not pretty, but I’m betting this one to go decisions and be boring as well.

Find a book that lets you bet “go the distance” with the under-total strikes, and you will win a pretty penny on the contradicting parlay legs.

PICKS: Fight goes the distance (-210, ESPN BET) | Under 238.5 total strikes (-120, Bet365)

Tracy Cortez has been a decision machine in the UFC.
Tracy Cortez has been a decision machine in the UFC. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov

Ponzinibbio has had multiple knee surgeries in his UFC career and his career looked over at multiple points.

Neither fighter here has a great chin or durability but this one has the feel of a sparring match between two aging veterans.

Salkihov has been to the third round in five of his last six fights while Ponzinibbio has been to the third in five straight and seven of his last eight fights.

We’re betting this one to go the distance in what seems like an obvious side to bet.

PICK: Fight goes the distance (+120, Caesars)

Santiago Ponzinibbio is far from the championship level fighter he was in his prime.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is far from the championship level fighter he was in his prime. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski

It’s the opening fight of the night, and it’s a quick bonus bet for us after we bet Andre Petroski will beat Jacob Malkoun as a massive +300 underdog.

Petroski looked amazing in that fight before bizarrely knocking himself out during a takedown attempt.

Petroski will have Josh Fremd beaten everywhere besides cardio.

As we mentioned, this fight is at an elevation, so there are some concerns.

However, Petroski is a Division One college wrestler and an improving striker.

Fremd has poor takedown defense and isn’t the better striker, either.

I expect Petroski finishes him early but if not, should be able to grapple the first two rounds to a decision if he wants.

PICK: Petroski ML (-105, FanDuel)

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UFC Denver full card picks, odds

  • Rose Namajunas (-200) vs. Tracy Cortez: Under 238.5 total strikes landed (-120, Bet365)
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio (-185) vs. Muslim Salikhov: Fight goes the distance (+120, Fanatics)
  • Drew Dober (-110) vs. Jean Silva: Over 1.5 rounds (-120, FanDuel)
  • Gabriel Bonfim (-340) vs. Ange Loosa: Loosa wins in round 3 (25/1 Bet365)
  • Julian Erosa (+170) vs. Christian Rodriguez: Erosa by submission (10/1 BetRivers)
  • Abdul Razak Alhassan (-170) vs. Cody Brundage: Brundage ML (+142, Bet365)
  • Joshua Van (-230) vs. Charles Johnson: Fight to be a split-decision (+275, DraftKings)
  • Jasmine Jasudavicius (-125) vs. Fatima Kline: Kline ML (+105, BetMGM)
  • Montel Jackson (-140) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear: Blackshear ML (+124, DraftKings)
  • Luana Santos (-395) vs. Mariya Agapova: Agapova by decision (+750, Caesars)
  • Josh Fremd (-115) vs. Andre Petroski: Petroski ML (-105, BetRivers)
  • Evan Elder (-410) vs. Darrius Flowers: Pass